Brazil Sees US$5.1 Billion Dollar Outflow in September

BRAZIL · MARKETS

The figures stop on Friday, 2 October, so they capture money leaving Brazil before the first-round vote, not the rally that followed.

Brazil posted a net dollar outflow of US$5.09 billion in September, central bank data released on Wednesday, 7 October, show. That is the worst September since 2019, when about US$6.4 billion left the country.

The figures matter to US investors because currency flows help move the real, and with it the dollar value of Brazilian assets. The data end on Friday, 2 October, two days before the first round of Brazil’s presidential election.

Where the Dollar Outflow Came From

The financial channel, which covers investment, profit remittances and interest payments, lost a net US$7.37 billion. The trade channel, which records payments for exports and imports, brought in a net US$2.28 billion.

That financial outflow is the largest for any September in central bank daily data going back to 2008. Financial inflows totalled US$63.2 billion against outflows of US$70.6 billion.

September was the second straight month of net outflows, after US$3.90 billion left in August. March remains the worst month of 2026 so far, with US$6.35 billion out.

In the last week of the data, from 28 September to 2 October, a net US$267 million left. The first two business days of October brought a net inflow of US$799 million.

A Positive Year Despite Two Weak Months

From January to 2 October, Brazil recorded a net inflow of US$11.5 billion, according to the central bank. In the same period of 2025, the country had a net outflow of US$19.4 billion.

Trade has carried 2026, adding a net US$46.6 billion, while the financial channel has lost US$35.1 billion. The latest weeks are preliminary, and earlier totals have been revised slightly since first publication.

The Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based association of financial firms, also saw money leave emerging markets in September. Its monthly tracker, released on Wednesday, counted a net US$26.3 billion of foreign outflows from their stocks and bonds.

Before and After the Vote

The central bank’s dollar reference rate, known as PTAX, stood at 5.22 reais on Friday, 2 October. It fell to 4.99 on Monday, 5 October, the first trading day after the first round.

Local outlets tied the rally to the first-round lead of conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Flávio, of the Liberal Party, is a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro; Lula belongs to the left-wing Workers’ Party.

On that Monday, foreigners put a net 10.06 billion reais (about US$2.0 billion) into B3-listed shares, Valor reported. That stock-market measure is separate from the central bank’s currency data, which will capture the week only in its next release.

Conversions use the PTAX rate for Wednesday, 7 October, of 4.99 reais per US dollar. The spot dollar closed that day at 5.01 reais, up 0.70%, Valor reported.

What It Means for You

US investors can buy Brazil through the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) or through New York-listed shares. Petrobras (PBR), Vale (VALE) and Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) are among them, and their dollar returns depend partly on the real.

A stronger real lifts the dollar value of those holdings, while net outflows like September’s tend to weigh on the currency. The dollar went from 5.22 to 4.99 reais in one trading day after the vote.

For US companies that earn revenue in reais, the exchange rate also decides how much those sales are worth back home. The weekly flow data track one of the forces behind that rate.

What Is Not Known

The data do not yet cover trading after the vote, including the rally of Monday, 5 October. It is not known whether foreign buying of Brazilian shares that week also brought in net dollars.

The weekly figures are not broken down by investor nationality, so the US share of the outflow is unknown. Nor do they show which investors or companies sent the money abroad.

What Comes Next

The central bank publishes the figures weekly, usually on Wednesdays, and the next release will be the first to include post-election trading. Brazil chooses its next president in a runoff on Sunday, 25 October.

September’s dollar outflow does not mean money is leaving Brazil for the year as a whole. The country still shows a net inflow of US$11.5 billion since January.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Brazil’s foreign-exchange flow?

It is the central bank’s tally of dollars entering and leaving Brazil through its currency market. It splits trade payments from financial deals such as investment, profits and interest.

How much money left Brazil in September?

A net US$5.09 billion, according to central bank data. Net financial outflows of US$7.37 billion outweighed a trade surplus of US$2.28 billion.

Does the September figure include the election rally?

No. The data end on Friday, 2 October, two days before the first round of the presidential election.

Is Brazil still taking in more dollars than it loses this year?

Yes. From January to 2 October, Brazil recorded a net inflow of US$11.5 billion.

How can US investors buy Brazilian assets?

They can use the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) or New York-listed shares. Petrobras (PBR), Vale (VALE) and Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) are among them.

Sources: Central Bank of Brazil, total foreign-exchange flow (SGS series 13961); financial flow (SGS 13970); trade flow (SGS 13967); Central Bank of Brazil PTAX rate; Valor Econômico, September flow; Institute of International Finance, Capital Flows Tracker (October 2026); Valor Econômico, B3 foreign inflow; Valor Econômico, dollar close; InfoMoney; iShares MSCI Brazil ETF; US Securities and Exchange Commission, tickers by exchange (all accessed 8 October 2026).