Mexican Peso Holds Firm as Dollar Index Climbs, Technicals Signal Persistent Pressure

Official data from FXCM and CME shows the Mexican peso held its ground against the US dollar over the last 24 hours, closing near 18.64 after trading in a tight range.

The US Dollar Index climbed toward 97.50, reflecting renewed demand for the greenback as traders responded to tariff headlines and shifting global risk sentiment.

Market participants focused on Mexico’s core inflation, which rose to 4.24% for June, the highest since April 2024. This figure forced Banxico to remain cautious with its monetary policy.

The central bank kept its policy rate at 8%, only recently trimming it by 50 basis points. This decision maintained Mexico’s real yield advantage, attracting steady inflows and supporting the peso.

Official remittance data confirmed a record $5.7 billion in June, while the trade surplus surpassed $9 billion for the year to date. These fundamentals provided a strong base for the currency, even as US policy uncertainty weighed on risk appetite.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the USD/MXN pair in a persistent downtrend. The price remained below the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, confirming the bearish bias.

The 18.60–18.50 support zone held firm, but a breach could trigger further peso appreciation. The MACD stayed negative, indicating continued downward momentum for the US dollar against the peso.

The Relative Strength Index hovered near 34, showing the pair approached oversold territory but had not yet reached an extreme. Bollinger Bands narrowed, reflecting reduced volatility and signaling the market’s wait for a new catalyst.

The four-hour chart reinforced the bearish trend, with the price unable to break above resistance at 18.65–18.70. The MACD on this timeframe appeared flat to slightly negative, suggesting a pause in the downtrend but no sign of a reversal.

The RSI on the four-hour chart sat near 42, higher than the daily, which pointed to minor relief rallies but not enough strength to change the overall direction.

Volume data from CME reported more than 2,200 peso futures contracts traded, confirming active participation but not indicating a decisive shift in sentiment.

ETF flows remained steady, with no significant inflows or outflows in major USD or peso-related funds, while Bitcoin ETFs saw $217 million in net inflows, highlighting broader risk appetite across asset classes.

Traders paid close attention to US tariff announcements, which threatened to disrupt trade but had not yet triggered a major market reaction. The peso’s resilience relied on strong external balances and cautious central bank policy.

However, any escalation in trade tensions or a sharp move in the US Dollar Index could quickly change the outlook. The peso’s performance over the last 24 hours reflected robust fundamentals and technical pressure on the dollar.

Market participants will continue to watch support levels, central bank guidance, and global risk sentiment for the next move. Official data from July 9, 2025, confirms that the Colombian peso weakened against the US dollar.

The USD/COP exchange rate closed at approximately 4,049.88, up from 4,038.18 the previous day, marking a clear depreciation of the peso.

This move reversed the strengthening trend seen earlier in July and reflected renewed market concerns about Colombia’s fiscal outlook and persistent global dollar strength.

The peso’s decline came as investors digested ongoing fiscal instability in Colombia. The government’s fiscal deficit, estimated at 7.1% for 2025, and the temporary suspension of its debt rule have weighed on investor confidence.

Major credit rating agencies have issued warnings about Colombia’s rising risk, prompting some foreign capital to exit local markets. These factors combined to increase demand for the US dollar, putting additional pressure on the peso.

On the international stage, the US Dollar Index remained firm, supported by a strong US labor market and positive economic signals. The dollar’s resilience limited any recovery for emerging market currencies, including the Colombian peso.

The anticipation of new US tariffs and uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy also contributed to a cautious trading environment. Technical analysis of the daily USD/COP chart showed the pair rebounding from recent lows.

The price moved above short-term moving averages, signaling renewed upward momentum for the dollar against the peso.

Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased volatility, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed toward neutral territory after touching oversold levels earlier in the week.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a slight uptick, confirming the shift in momentum. Volume data did not indicate panic selling, but rather steady repositioning by market participants.

No significant ETF inflows or outflows were reported for Colombian assets, and trading volumes remained within normal ranges. The absence of major interventions or statements from Colombian authorities left the market focused on macroeconomic fundamentals and technical signals.

Fundamentally, Colombia’s high real interest rates have provided some support for the peso, but fiscal concerns and global risk aversion have overshadowed these positives.

The strong US dollar environment, fueled by robust economic data and policy uncertainty, continued to draw capital away from emerging markets. The trading day ended with the peso under pressure, as investors awaited further clarity on fiscal reforms and central bank policy.

The technical setup suggested potential for continued volatility, with key support and resistance levels likely to guide near-term price action. Market participants remained alert to further developments in both Colombian fiscal policy and global economic conditions.