Low 1.79% GDP Growth Expected in 2014: Daily

By William Jones, Contributing Reporter

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A survey of financial analysts conducted by the Brazilian Central Bank has concluded that the country’s GDP will grow by a mere 1.79 percent in 2014, a figure that brings even more woe onto an already stuttering economy. The survey showed the experts are not more optimistic for 2015, as predictions call for an expensive U.S. dollar and higher inflation next year too.

The study, which contains economic analysis from around 100 experts in Brazil, calculates a median GDP growth prediction from their data. This time around, its results were less optimistic than they were last week.

Financial experts put growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product at 1.79 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2015. This is down from the previous week’s forecast of 1.90 percent and 2.20 percent, respectively, according to the survey complied on February 14th.

The official estimate for inflation for this year, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose from 5.89 percent to 5.93 percent. This drags the nation’s economy further away from its self-prescribed target of 4.5 percent. However, the level does lie within the government’s margin of error range of two percent.

The continuing instability of the Brazil’s currency, the real, was also forecast against the U.S. dollar, where the American currency is expected to only rise slightly in 2014 from R$2.44 to R$2.45. In the past twelve months, however, the real has fallen by a staggering 17.5 percent against the U.S. currency.

The world’s second-largest emerging market is showing signs of slow growth in other areas, too. Brazilian industrial output in December receded by 3.5 percent from November, as capital goods production fell by 11.6 percent.

Read more (in Portuguese).

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