PERU · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The country Peru, a major South American copper exporter, chose city mayors and regional governors on Sunday 4 October 2026; Lima is its capital and business hub.
- —Why it matters Lima is home to the US Embassy and to US companies operating in Peru, so its next mayor sets local rules and permits that affect them.
- —Why now The electoral office ONPE updated the Lima count on Saturday 17 October, and the result is still not final because disputed sheets wait for electoral juries.
- —What happened The Lima mayor count reached 95.4% of tally sheets, with the Renovación Popular list ahead of Avanza País by about one percentage point.
- —The numbers Renovación Popular stood at 27.776% and Avanza País at 26.821%. Of 26,351 sheets, 25,149 were counted and 1,202 sat with the juries.
- —What it means for you Nothing changes for visitors before the new city term starts on 1 January 2027, but firms with Lima permits wait for a proclaimed winner.
- —Still open Who is proclaimed mayor, when the juries finish, and whether recounts or appeals move the roughly 50,000-vote gap.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Rafael López Aliaga a 90% chance of becoming Lima mayor and Francis Allison 1% (18 October, 3:05 a.m. ET).
- —Power Index Peru ranks 5th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 54.7 points (October 2026 edition).
The Lima mayor count reached 95.4% of tally sheets on Saturday 17 October 2026, with the Renovación Popular list still ahead. Its lead over Avanza País is about one percentage point, and 1,202 disputed sheets remain unresolved.
Lima is Peru’s capital, its business hub and the seat of the US Embassy, so its next mayor matters to US companies, investors and travellers. Peru’s electoral office ONPE had counted 25,149 of 26,351 sheets by 10:15 p.m. Lima time (11:15 p.m. ET), El Comercio’s live count shows.
Peruvians voted for mayors and regional governors on Sunday 4 October 2026, and no winner has been named for Lima almost two weeks later. The National Elections Jury, known as the JNE, had set no official date to proclaim a winner when Infobae asked on 15 October.
Earlier coverage on this site covers the start of the recounts and an Ipsos poll on a possible runoff. This report adds the latest ONPE count and the state of the disputed sheets.
Where the Lima Mayor Count Stands
At the 1:32 p.m. cut on Saturday, with 95.435% of sheets counted, Renovación Popular held 27.776% of valid votes and Avanza País 26.821%, El Comercio’s table shows. That is a gap of 0.955 percentage points, our own subtraction of the two published shares.
The last vote totals we found come from La Noticia at 95.165% counted, with 1,485,510 votes for Renovación Popular and 1,434,867 for Avanza País. Subtraction gives 50,643 votes, nine more than the 50,634 the newspaper printed.
On Wednesday 14 October, Gestión showed 94.217% counted, with 1,470,928 votes against 1,419,369, a lead of 51,559 votes. The lead has therefore narrowed by about 900 votes while the counted share rose by almost one point.
Other lists trail far behind, with Somos Perú on 15.161% and Podemos Perú on 7.964% in El Comercio’s table. Alianza para el Progreso, known as APP, stood at 4.301%.
Who Is Competing for Lima City Hall
Renovación Popular is the party of Rafael López Aliaga, who appears on the Lima ticket as first councillor, La Noticia notes. Avanza País is the party of Francis Allison, who is its candidate for the mayor’s office.
On 13 October El Comercio pointed to an unresolved question over who takes office as mayor when the top name on a winning ticket is a councillor. That question concerns López Aliaga, and the sources we opened do not say how it will be settled.
What the 1,202 Disputed Sheets Mean
ONPE explained on Saturday 10 October that sheets with an observation, or with a request to annul or challenge a vote or an identity, are not counted at first. They go to the special electoral juries, known as JEE, which are bodies of the JNE.
Each jury issues a resolution that ONPE then applies to the count. If a party appeals, the JNE plenary rules as the final instance, and only then can the count reach 100%.
The number of Lima sheets at the juries has fallen from 1,924 on 5 October to 1,479 on Thursday 15 October and 1,202 on Saturday. The total counted plus disputed matches the 26,351 sheets issued, and none are left pending.
El Comercio wrote on 13 October that 116 sheets had been ordered recounted and that parties have three business days to appeal a jury ruling. La República adds that the juries must finish recount hearings by Wednesday 28 October.
An expert quoted by El Comercio expected all disputes, including appeals and possible nullity requests, to be resolved in late October or early November. That is an estimate, not an official schedule.
The National Picture and the December Runoffs
The Lima figure covers only the capital’s mayor race, which has 26,351 sheets. ONPE finished processing all 89,935 polling-station sheets nationwide at 12:26 p.m. on Saturday 10 October, with 96.7% of them counted.
That national figure is the latest we found, and it covers every regional and municipal race together. The rest of those sheets were also heading to the juries.
A second regional election will be held on Sunday 6 December 2026 in regions where no governor ticket wins at least 30% of valid votes. The JNE moved it from 29 November after ONPE said it needed more time to prepare, La República reported on 10 October.
New regional authorities take office on 1 January 2027, La República also wrote. Our guide to the regional runoff rules was published before the date change.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket gave López Aliaga about a 90% chance of becoming Lima mayor and Allison about 1% on Sunday 18 October (3:05 a.m. ET). The López Aliaga price is down about 1.5 points over the past 24 hours.
The López Aliaga contract has traded about US$180,000 and the Allison contract about US$157,000, within a Lima mayor market of about US$547,000 in total. These are bets, not polls, and they do not decide who the juries proclaim.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
A Lima mayor runs municipal services, local taxes and permits rather than national policy, so the result matters most to firms and residents who deal with city hall. US companies with Lima permits or contracts should expect no clarity until a winner is proclaimed.
Visitors should see no change before the new municipal term starts on 1 January 2027. Our Lima expat city guide and our Peru security guide cover daily life in the capital.
What Is Not Known
ONPE’s own results site blocked our requests, so the figures rest on El Comercio’s live count of ONPE data, with La Noticia and Gestión for vote totals. The newest vote totals we could read stop at 95.165% counted.
Our rough estimate, at the average of counted sheets, puts about 250,000 valid votes in the 1,202 disputed sheets, about five times the gap. That is arithmetic, not a forecast, since the sheets may not resemble the rest.
No source we opened says when the JNE will proclaim a winner, how many recounts will change totals, or how the López Aliaga question will be resolved. The next ONPE updates and jury rulings will show whether the lead holds.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did ONPE count in the Lima mayor race?
ONPE had counted 25,149 of 26,351 sheets, or 95.439%, by 10:15 p.m. Lima time on Saturday 17 October 2026. A further 1,202 sheets sat with electoral juries.
Who leads the Lima mayor race?
Renovación Popular leads with 27.776% of valid votes against 26.821% for Avanza País at the 1:32 p.m. cut on 17 October. The gap is 0.955 percentage points.
Is the Lima result final?
No, because the disputed sheets still have to be resolved by the juries and, on appeal, by the JNE plenary. Only then can ONPE reach 100% and a winner be proclaimed.
When will Lima get a new mayor?
No official date has been set for the proclamation. The new municipal term starts on 1 January 2027.
What does it mean for US readers?
Lima hosts the US Embassy and US companies, so the mayor’s office affects permits and local rules they deal with. Visitors should see no change before 2027.
Sources: ONPE press note, 10 October 2026; El Comercio live count, 17 October 2026; La Noticia, 17 October 2026; Gestión, 14 October 2026; El Comercio, 13 October 2026; Infobae, 15 October 2026; La República, 10 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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