This week is dominated by delayed US labor and inflation data from the government shutdown, triple Latin American inflation prints, and European GDP readings. Wednesday’s NFP and Friday’s CPI carry outsized repricing risk. Here’s what to watch. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American markets and financial news.
Three Themes That Will Define the Week
| 1 | Delayed US data deluge: NFP (Wed) and CPI (Fri) land in the same week for the first time since the shutdown — both carry outsized repricing risk after the data blackout suppressed volatility. |
| 2 | GDP double-header: UK Q4 GDP (Thu) and Eurozone Q4 revision (Fri) test whether European growth is stabilizing after Germany’s industrial collapse. |
| 3 | LATAM inflation week: Mexico CPI (Mon), Brazil IPCA (Tue), and Argentina CPI (Tue) all report — critical for Banxico, Copom, and BCRA rate expectations. |
Week at a Glance — High-impact events only
| Day | Time | Region | Event | Cons. | Prior |
| Mon | 07:00 | MEXICO | CPI YoY (Jan) | 3.82% | 3.69% |
| Tue | 07:00 | BRAZIL | IPCA CPI YoY (Jan) | — | 4.26% |
| Tue | 08:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM (Dec) DLY | +0.4% | +0.6% |
| Tue | 08:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q4) DLY | +0.8% | +0.8% |
| Tue | 14:00 | ARGENTINA | CPI YoY (Jan) | — | 31.7% |
| Tue | 20:30 | CHINA | CPI YoY (Jan) | +0.4% | +0.8% |
| Wed | 08:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) DLY | +70K | +50K |
| Thu | 02:00 | UK | GDP QoQ (Q4 prelim) | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| Thu | 18:00 | PERU | BCRP Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | — | 4.25% |
| Fri | 05:00 | EUROZONE | GDP QoQ (Q4, 2nd est.) | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| Fri | 08:30 | US | CPI YoY (Jan) DLY | +2.5% | +2.7% |
| Fri | 08:30 | US | Core CPI MoM (Jan) DLY | +0.3% | +0.2% |
Key Facts
— This is the most data-dense week since the shutdown scrambled the calendar. Wednesday’s NFP and Friday’s CPI are the twin pillars — both carry outsized vol potential because the data blackout compressed two months of information into one. Barclays expects NFP at +50K; the benchmark revision could show a downward adjustment of up to 1 million jobs from March 2025. On inflation, BofA Securities expects CPI to tick higher to start the year. For Latin America, Monday’s Mexico CPI and Tuesday’s Brazil IPCA are the domestic anchors — both critical for rate expectations at Banxico and Copom respectively. Argentina’s CPI continues its deceleration narrative. Peru’s BCRP meets Thursday. In Europe, UK and Eurozone GDP will test the recovery narrative after Germany’s industrial collapse and the BoE’s dovish MPC split.
Monday — February 9
| Time | Region | Event | Impact | Cons. | Prior |
| 00:00 | JAPAN | Economy Watchers Current Index (Jan) | LOW | 49.1 | 48.6 |
| 04:30 | EU | Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb) | MED | −0.2 | −1.8 |
| 06:25 | BRAZIL | BCB Focus Market Readout | MED | — | — |
| 06:30 | CHILE | Trade Balance (Jan) | LOW | — | 3.59B |
| 06:30 | CHILE | Copper Exports (Jan) | MED | — | $5,830M |
| 07:00 | MEXICO | CPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | 3.82% | 3.69% |
| 07:00 | MEXICO | Core CPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | 4.49% | 4.33% |
| 07:00 | MEXICO | CPI MoM (Jan) / PPI MoM (Jan) | MED | — | 0.28% / 0.50% |
| 07:00 | EU | ECB’s Lane speaks | MED | — | — |
| 10:00 | US | CB Employment Trends Index (Jan) | LOW | — | 104.27 |
| 11:00 | EU | Buba Pres. Nagel speaks / ECB Pres. Lagarde speaks | MED | — | — |
| 13:30 | US | Fed Governor Waller speaks | MED | — | — |
| 14:30 | UK | BoE MPC Member Mann speaks (×2) | MED | — | — |
| 15:15 | US | FOMC Member Bostic speaks | MED | — | — |
| 18:30 | AUS | Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | LOW | — | −1.7% |
| 19:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jan) | LOW | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| 19:30 | AUS | NAB Business Confidence (Jan) / Building Approvals (Dec) | MED | — | 3 / +15.2% |
Tuesday — February 10
| Time | Region | Event | Impact | Cons. | Prior |
| 01:00 | JAPAN | Machine Tool Orders YoY | LOW | — | +10.6% |
| 06:00 | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jan) | MED | 99.9 | 99.5 |
| 07:00 | BRAZIL | IPCA CPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | — | 4.26% |
| 07:00 | BRAZIL | IPCA CPI MoM (Jan) | HIGH | — | 0.33% |
| 08:00 | BRAZIL | Auto Production MoM / Auto Sales MoM (Jan) | LOW | — | −15.8% / +17.1% |
| 08:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM (Dec) DLY | HIGH | +0.4% | +0.6% |
| 08:30 | US | Core Retail Sales MoM (Dec) DLY | MED | +0.4% | +0.5% |
| 08:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q4) DLY | HIGH | +0.8% | +0.8% |
| 08:30 | US | Import/Export Price Indexes (Dec) DLY | LOW | +0.1% | +0.4% / +0.5% |
| 10:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM (Nov) | LOW | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| 11:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | MED | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 12:00 | US | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook | MED | — | — |
| 13:00 | US | Fed Logan speaks / 3-Year Note Auction | MED | — | 3.609% |
| 14:00 | ARGENTINA | CPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | — | 31.7% |
| 14:00 | ARGENTINA | CPI MoM (Jan) / Trade Balance (Jan) | MED | — | 2.8% / $1M |
| 18:00 | KOREA | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | LOW | — | 4.0% |
| 20:30 | CHINA | CPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | +0.4% | +0.8% |
| 20:30 | CHINA | PPI YoY (Jan) | HIGH | −1.5% | −1.9% |
Wednesday — February 11
| Time | Region | Event | Impact | Cons. | Prior |
| 04:00 | EU | Italian Industrial Production MoM (Dec) | LOW | — | +1.5% |
| 04:30 | S. AFRICA | Business Confidence (Dec) | LOW | — | 132.3 |
| 07:00 | MEXICO | Industrial Production YoY (Dec) | MED | — | −0.8% |
| 07:00 | MEXICO | Industrial Production MoM (Dec) | LOW | — | +0.6% |
| 07:00 | BRAZIL | PPI MoM (Dec) | LOW | — | −0.37% |
| 08:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) DLY | HIGH | +70K | +50K |
| 08:30 | US | Unemployment Rate (Jan) DLY | HIGH | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 08:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan) | MED | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| 08:30 | US | Payrolls Benchmark Revision (n.s.a.) | HIGH | — | −911K |
| 08:30 | US | Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | MED | +70K | +37K |
| 08:30 | US | Participation Rate / U6 Rate (Jan) | MED | — | 62.4% / 8.4% |
| 08:30 | CANADA | Building Permits MoM (Dec) | LOW | — | −13.1% |
| 10:15 | US | FOMC Member Bowman speaks | MED | — | — |
| 10:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | MED | — | −3.455M |
| 12:00 | EU | ECB’s Schnabel speaks | MED | — | — |
| 12:30 | BRAZIL | Foreign Exchange Flows | MED | — | 4.180B |
| 13:00 | US | 10-Year Note Auction | MED | — | 4.173% |
| 13:30 | CANADA | BoC Summary of Deliberations | MED | — | — |
| 14:00 | US | Federal Budget Balance (Jan) | LOW | — | −$145.0B |
Thursday — February 12
| Time | Region | Event | Impact | Cons. | Prior |
| 02:00 | UK | GDP QoQ (Q4 prelim) | HIGH | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| 02:00 | UK | GDP MoM (Dec) | HIGH | +0.1% | +0.3% |
| 02:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM (Dec) | MED | 0.0% | +1.1% |
| 02:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM (Dec) | MED | −0.1% | +2.1% |
| 02:00 | UK | Trade Balance (Dec) / Business Investment QoQ (Q4) | MED | −£22.0B / +0.2% | −£23.7B / +1.5% |
| 04:30 | S. AFRICA | Mining Production / Gold Production (Dec) | LOW | — | −2.7% / −6.0% |
| 05:30 | INDIA | CPI YoY (Jan) | MED | — | 1.33% |
| 07:00 | BRAZIL | Service Sector Growth MoM / YoY (Dec) | MED | — | −0.1% / +2.5% |
| 07:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Jan) | LOW | — | −0.1% |
| 08:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | MED | 222K | 231K |
| 08:45 | CANADA | BoC Sr. Deputy Gov. Rogers speaks | MED | — | — |
| 10:00 | US | Existing Home Sales (Jan) | MED | 4.22M | 4.35M |
| 13:01 | US | 30-Year Bond Auction | MED | — | 4.825% |
| 13:30 | EU | ECB’s Lane speaks / Buba Pres. Nagel speaks | MED | — | — |
| 18:00 | PERU | BCRP Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | HIGH | — | 4.25% |
| 18:30 | PERU | Trade Balance (Dec) | LOW | — | $3,731M |
| 20:30 | CHINA | House Prices YoY (Jan) | MED | — | −2.7% |
| 22:30 | JAPAN | BoJ Tamura speaks | MED | — | — |
Friday — February 13
| Time | Region | Event | Impact | Cons. | Prior |
| 02:00 | EU | German Wholesale Price Index MoM / YoY (Jan) | LOW | +0.1% | −0.2% / +1.2% |
| 03:00 | EU | Spanish CPI YoY (Jan) / Core CPI YoY (Jan) | MED | 2.4% / 2.6% | 2.4% / 2.6% |
| 05:00 | EU | GDP QoQ (Q4, 2nd estimate) | HIGH | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| 05:00 | EU | GDP YoY (Q4) / Employment Change QoQ (Q4) | MED | +1.3% / +0.1% | +1.3% / +0.2% |
| 05:00 | EU | Trade Balance (Dec) | LOW | €10.2B | €9.9B |
| 06:00 | BRAZIL | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM (Feb) | LOW | — | +0.3% |
| 07:00 | BRAZIL | Retail Sales MoM / YoY (Dec) | MED | — | +1.0% / +1.3% |
| 07:00 | UK | BoE MPC Member Pill speaks | MED | — | — |
| 07:00 | EU | ECB’s De Guindos speaks | LOW | — | — |
| 08:30 | US | CPI YoY (Jan) DLY | HIGH | +2.5% | +2.7% |
| 08:30 | US | CPI MoM (Jan) DLY | HIGH | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| 08:30 | US | Core CPI MoM (Jan) DLY | HIGH | +0.3% | +0.2% |
| 08:30 | US | Real Earnings MoM (Jan) | LOW | — | −0.3% |
| 10:00 | COLOMBIA | Industrial Production YoY (Dec) | MED | — | +0.7% |
| 11:00 | COLOMBIA | Retail Sales YoY (Dec) | MED | — | +7.5% |
| 13:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count | LOW | — | 412 / 551 |
| 15:30 | US | CFTC Speculative Positions (all major contracts) | LOW | — | — |
Key Facts
— This is the most data-dense week since the shutdown scrambled the calendar. The repricing risk is asymmetric and concentrated in three sessions: Tuesday (triple LATAM inflation + US retail), Wednesday (NFP + benchmark revision), and Friday (US CPI + Eurozone GDP). For Latin American markets specifically, the sequencing matters — Mexico CPI Monday sets Banxico expectations, Brazil IPCA Tuesday sets Copom expectations, and Argentina CPI Tuesday tests the Milei disinflation narrative. The UK GDP / Peru rate decision Thursday adds a secondary layer. Trade accordingly: weak US NFP + hot CPI = the worst combination for risk assets. Strong NFP + cool CPI = the Dow 50K rally has legs.
Previously: Economic Calendar — February 2–6, 2026. Sources include BLS, ECB, ONS, BCB, Investing.com, and Bloomberg. All times Eastern (ET). Consensus estimates as of publication and subject to change.
© 2026 RT Staff Reporters | The Rio Times Weekly Economic Calendar
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