Iron Ore Slides as Technical and Fundamental Pressures Persist

The SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures traded at $95.25 per metric ton this morning, reflecting a market under continued pressure from both technical and fundamental forces.

Data from the official SGX contract and TradingView charts confirm the persistent downtrend, with prices failing to recover after a brief attempt at stabilization earlier this week.

The last 24 hours saw iron ore futures open weak, with sellers quickly regaining control after an early session bounce. The price briefly touched $95.80 yesterday but could not sustain gains, sliding back toward the $95.01 low.

Volumes remained moderate, and open interest hovered near 304,830 contracts, a sign that traders are not aggressively building new positions but rather managing existing risk.

Technical indicators on the attached chart show a clear bearish structure. The price remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which cluster between $95.77 and $98.85.

The Ichimoku cloud sits well above current levels, confirming the prevailing downtrend. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating lower volatility but also a lack of momentum for a meaningful reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below 45, suggesting the market is neither oversold nor ready for a technical bounce. The MACD remains negative, with no bullish crossover in sight.

Iron Ore Market Outlook

The market tested and rejected resistance at $97.35, reinforcing the view that sellers dominate. Support at $94.75 remains critical; a sustained break below this level could trigger a move toward the April 9 low near $91.75.

Conversely, any bounce above $97.35 would need to be confirmed by strong volume to signal a shift in sentiment, but such a move appears unlikely without a fundamental catalyst.

On the fundamental side, Chinese steel demand continues to disappoint. Mills have reduced restocking activity, focusing on cheaper, lower-grade ores to manage costs.

Port inventories remain elevated, with no signs of significant drawdowns. Macroeconomic data from China show sluggish manufacturing and fixed asset investment growth, further weighing on sentiment.

The easing of US-China trade tensions earlier this quarter provided only a brief respite, as broader concerns about global growth and commodity demand persist.

In related markets, silver trades at $33.20 per ounce, up 0.31% in the last session, while steel prices in China have slipped to 3,095 CNY per ton. These moves underscore a broader trend of caution across industrial metals.

Iron ore’s technical and fundamental backdrop suggests further downside risk unless prices can establish a double bottom near current levels.

Without a clear shift in Chinese demand or a supply shock, the market appears set to remain under pressure, with traders watching the $94.75 support as the next key test.

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