Gold’s Bullish Structure Faces Daily Losses as Market Sentiment Shifts

Gold’s price action since June 16 tells a story of daily setbacks despite the market’s underlying bullish structure. According to official spot data, gold traded at $3,385 per ounce on June 16.

By the morning of June 19, the price had slipped to $3,354. This steady decline, though not dramatic, signals a loss of momentum even as technical indicators on the daily chart remain broadly supportive of a long-term uptrend.

The attached daily and four-hour charts show gold holding above its major moving averages, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-day lines still sloping upward. The Ichimoku cloud and Bollinger Bands both confirm the presence of a bullish channel.

However, the price now hovers near the lower edge of these bands, and the daily candles reveal a pattern of lower closes each session since June 16. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from above 55 to near 52.

This level is neutral but points to fading momentum. The daily MACD histogram has turned negative, and its signal lines are flattening, suggesting that buying pressure is weakening.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI has fallen further to 38, which signals short-term oversold conditions. The MACD on this timeframe is firmly negative, and the price sits at the lower edge of the bullish channel, increasing the risk of a breakdown if support near $3,350 fails.

Gold Faces Pressure Amid Fed Watch and Geopolitical Risks

Fundamental factors continue to drive this cautious tone. Investors remain wary ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with most expecting no change in rates but closely watching for signals on future easing.

The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has kept a risk premium in the market, but it has not been enough to halt gold’s recent slide. Tepid U.S. economic data, including weaker retail sales, has fueled speculation about possible rate cuts later this year, but this has not translated into renewed gold buying.

ETF flows reflect this hesitancy. The world’s largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a 0.43% increase in holdings on Tuesday, but overall flows remain subdued compared to earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, Citi and other major banks have revised their gold forecasts downward, with projections of prices falling below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 as investment demand wanes and global growth prospects improve.

Despite the bullish chart structure, the market’s inability to sustain gains above $3,380 and the pattern of daily losses reveal a shift in sentiment. If gold closes below $3,350, further declines toward $3,314 and $3,286 become likely.

Only a decisive move above $3,388 would restore bullish momentum. For now, the market appears to be in a corrective phase, with traders waiting for a clear catalyst to break the current pattern of daily losses.

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