Copper Slides Sharply as Market Faces Surplus Pressure and Technical Breakdown

Copper prices fell decisively in the last 24 hours, with official charts showing a clear decline since the morning of June 18, 2025.

The four-hour chart for CFDs on copper displays a drop from around $4.90 to $4.86 per pound, with the price reaching as low as $4.85 in the early hours of June 19.

This marks a significant move lower, contradicting any notion of market stability and underscoring the impact of surplus fears and shifting technical momentum.

The technical picture confirms the weakness. The four-hour chart shows copper breaking below its short-term moving averages, with the price now hugging the lower Bollinger Band.

The MACD histogram has moved deeper into negative territory, and the signal line crossed below zero, signaling growing bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, just below the neutral 50 mark, indicating a tilt toward selling pressure but not yet oversold.

The daily chart reinforces this view, with copper slipping below the 20-day moving average and the MACD line turning negative. The RSI on the daily chart stands at 52, reflecting a loss of upward momentum.

Fundamental factors continue to weigh heavily. The International Copper Study Group confirmed a projected surplus of 289,000 tonnes for 2025, driven by rising mine supply and expanding smelting capacity in key producing countries.

Copper Under Pressure as Surplus Grows

US inventories remain elevated as buyers stockpiled ahead of potential tariffs, while Chinese smelters maintain record output. However, the anticipated demand from China’s industrial and energy transition policies has not been strong enough to offset the global surplus.

Market participants have responded to these signals by reducing long positions, as seen in the declining price and bearish technical indicators.

The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands on both the four-hour and daily charts suggests reduced volatility, but the move lower points to a possible further slide if support levels fail to hold.

The next key support appears near $4.83 per pound, with resistance now established at $4.89. The story behind these figures is clear: copper is under pressure from both fundamental and technical fronts.

The surplus outlook and high US inventories have triggered a pullback, and the technical breakdown adds to the negative sentiment. Traders remain cautious, watching for any signs of stabilization or further downside.

The market’s sharp drop in the past 24 hours highlights the risks of relying on demand optimism in the face of growing supply. Copper’s decline since June 18 morning is a direct response to these hard facts.

The charts and fundamentals both show a market struggling to find support as surplus concerns and technical weakness dominate the trade.

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