Global Economy Briefing: October 9, 2025
Holiday closures in South Korea kept Asia liquidity light, while new data showed Europe’s trade resilience amid weak demand.
Holiday closures in South Korea kept Asia liquidity light, while new data showed Europe’s trade resilience amid weak demand, sticky price signals in Japan, and steady—but costly—U.S. funding conditions.
United States
Front-end funding eased slightly (4-week bill 4.030%, 8-week 3.955%) even as the 30-year bond auction rose to 4.734%, keeping term premia elevated.
The Fed’s balance sheet edged up to $6.591T and reserve balances to $3.034T. Natural gas storage posted an 80 bcf build (vs. 76 bcf consensus), tempering near-term price risk.
Europe & UK
Germany’s external balance improved despite weak demand: exports −0.5% m/m and imports −1.3% m/m lifted the trade surplus to €17.2B.
Household sentiment was mixed—euro area PCSI ticked up to 49.53, with France firmer (40.61) but Germany (45.75) and Italy (45.12) softer.
The UK slipped to 48.3. ECB accounts and Eurogroup meetings offered cautious tones as growth remains fragile. Norway’s PPI stayed negative (−2.8% y/y), reinforcing disinflation in the Nordics.
Asia
Japan’s pipeline and pricing signals firmed: machine tool orders +9.9% y/y; bank lending +3.8% y/y; PPI +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y.
Yet consumer sentiment softened (PCSI 35.21). Korea’s FX reserves rose to $422.02B. New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI stayed at 49.9, consistent with sub-trend momentum. Australia’s PCSI eased to 51.80 as RBA officials stressed vigilance.
Major Emerging Markets
Mexico’s inflation re-accelerated at the margin: headline CPI 3.76% y/y (0.23% m/m), core +0.33% m/m; PPI 3.1% y/y.
Brazil’s IPCA moved to 5.17% y/y (0.48% m/m; seasonally adjusted 0.52%), keeping attention on administered and services components.
South Africa’s manufacturing output rose 0.4% m/m but fell 1.5% y/y; confidence slipped (PCSI 45.41).
Commodities & Flows
The U.S. gas build added a mild bearish tilt to energy, while higher long-bond yields and steady bill rates signaled tight but orderly global funding.
European trade data favored surplus currencies even as domestic demand indicators softened.
Risks and Framing
Policy divergence persists: Europe’s growth is fragile but external balances help; Japan’s cost pressures are stabilizing without robust demand; LatAm inflation edges higher.
With long-end U.S. yields elevated and Asian holidays thinning liquidity, the next catalysts are U.S. inflation prints, euro-area hard data, and any Japan yield repricing that could ripple through global curves.
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+0.29%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
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