Global Economy Briefing: October 13, 2025
Holiday closures in Canada and Japan kept activity light, while Europe’s wholesale prices firmed, short-bill yields eased.
Holiday closures in Canada and Japan kept activity light, while Europe’s wholesale prices firmed, short-bill yields eased, and Asia delivered a split screen of softer India inflation and stronger Singapore growth.
Markets also looked to the IMF/World Bank meetings and OPEC’s monthly report for guidance on the global backdrop.
United States
No major data prints. Attention centered on IMF meetings for policy tone and on OPEC’s monthly report for clues on fourth-quarter energy balances and headline-inflation risks.
Europe & UK
Germany’s wholesale price index rose 0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y in September, hinting at stabilizing goods prices even as the current-account surplus narrowed to €8.3B in August (from €15.6B).
Funding costs eased: Germany’s 12-month Bubill auction printed 1.870% (prior 1.938%) and France’s BTFs came slightly lower across 3-, 6- and 12-month lines (1.958%, 2.009%, 2.019%).
In the UK, BRC retail sales slowed to 2.0% y/y, and speeches from BoE MPC member Catherine Mann and ECB officials kept a cautious tone around growth and services-price persistence.
Asia
India’s CPI slowed more than expected to 1.54% y/y in September (from 2.07%), reinforcing a benign inflation profile.
Singapore surprised to the upside: Q3 GDP grew 2.9% y/y and 1.3% q/q, above consensus, suggesting resilient external demand and services.
In Japan—closed for National Sports Day—money growth firmed (M2 up 1.6% y/y; broader aggregates higher), a modest offset to recent soft patches.
Australia’s NAB business confidence improved to 7 (from 4) with conditions steady at 8; RBA minutes signaled vigilance as domestic demand cools at the margin. New Zealand’s electronic card spending dipped 0.5% m/m but rose 1.0% y/y.
Major Emerging Markets
Brazil’s weekly Focus survey remained the reference point for expectations (headline release watched), with no new hard data beyond the calendar. Elsewhere in LatAm and EMEA, the day was quiet.
Commodities & Flows
Short-tenor euro funding costs eased at auctions, while the OPEC report (due) and IMF meetings framed the debate on energy supply, fiscal space, and global capital flows into year-end.
Risks and Framing
Disinflation outside Europe (notably India) contrasts with firmer wholesale prices in Germany; Asia’s growth pulse is uneven but Singapore’s beat helps sentiment.
With euro funding costs edging lower and policy forums in focus, the next catalysts are U.S. inflation data, the OPEC supply path, and any guidance from IMF meetings that shifts rate-cut expectations.
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+0.29%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
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