Global Economy Briefing: November 7, 2025

A reserves-heavy Friday signaled firmer official backstops across several economies. China’s FX stockpile edged up to $3.343 trillion in October, Hong Kong rose to $426 billion.

South Africa added to $71.6 billion, while Switzerland stayed essentially flat at $724.8 billion and India dipped to $689.7 billion.

The broad picture: Asia’s buffers remain substantial, helping temper FX volatility despite uneven global growth.

United States

Consumers turned gloomier. University of Michigan sentiment fell sharply to 50.3, with current conditions at 52.3 and expectations at 49.0.

One-year inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7 percent, but the five-year gauge eased to 3.6 percent, a mixed signal for the Federal Reserve.

September consumer credit expanded by $13.1 billion, pointing to still-available financing even as sentiment softens.

Oilfield activity was steady, with 548 total rigs and 414 oil rigs, suggesting no abrupt supply shock from U.S. producers.

Canada

A strong headline jobs gain of 66.6 thousand contrasted with a drop in full-time positions and a surge in part-time.

Unemployment fell to 6.9 percent and wage growth for permanent employees ran at 4.0 percent.

The mix argues for resilience but also slack, complicating near-term Bank of Canada rate-cut timing.

Europe and UK

Germany posted a welcome export rebound in September at 1.4 percent month-on-month, but imports rose faster at 3.1 percent and the surplus narrowed to €15.3 billion, underlining weak external demand.

France’s trade gap widened to €6.6 billion and the current account swung back into deficit, though reserve assets increased.

In the UK, Halifax house prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month and 1.9 percent year-on-year, even as average mortgage rates held at a restrictive 6.78 percent.

Norway’s manufacturing output fell 1.7 percent, consistent with softer European industry.

Latin America

Mexico’s inflation decelerated further to 3.57 percent year-on-year with core at roughly 4.28 percent, while monthly prints stayed contained, supporting Banxico’s gradualist stance.

Brazil’s IGP-DI registered slight deflation at −0.03 percent in October and factory-gate prices fell 0.25 percent, adding to a benign near-term inflation backdrop.

What it means

Official reserve cushions in Asia and South Africa help cap FX stress; Europe shows mixed trade and weak industry; North American data paint a nuanced growth picture with soft U.S. sentiment but firm Canadian hiring; and Latin America’s disinflation trend endures.

Net effect for markets: lower tail risks in FX, but growth signals remain two-speed and policy paths data-dependent.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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