Global Economy Briefing: November 5, 2025

November 5, 2025, laid bare the growing divide between economies that adapt and those that stagnate. The day’s data revealed where confidence is returning—and where old problems refuse to fade.

Europe’s story was one of cautious optimism, but with lingering weak spots. Germany’s factory orders rebounded by 1.1% in September, beating expectations, and its services PMI climbed to 54.6, the highest in months.

France’s industrial production surged by 0.8%, a welcome surprise after months of decline. Spain’s services sector thrived, with a PMI of 56.6, while Italy’s composite PMI reached 53.1, signaling expansion.

Yet France’s services PMI slipped to 48.0, and Italy’s retail sales fell by 0.5% month-over-month, a reminder that recovery remains uneven.

The UK’s car registrations grew by just 0.5% year-over-year, a far cry from October 2024’s 13.7% jump, and new passenger car registrations halved to 144,948 from 312,891 a year ago—clear evidence of a cooling consumer appetite.

The U.S. painted a picture of resilience. The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 54.6, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI hit 52.4, driven by strong new orders (56.2) and business activity (54.3).

Global Economy Briefing: November 5, 2025

Even employment in services, though still contracting at 48.2, showed improvement. ADP reported 42,000 new private-sector jobs, reversing September’s loss.

Yet mortgage applications dropped by 1.9%, and refinancing activity slowed, hinting at caution among homebuyers as rates held at 6.31%.

Crude oil inventories swelled by 5.2 million barrels, defying expectations of a drawdown, while gasoline stocks plunged by 4.7 million barrels, reflecting shifting energy dynamics.

Brazil’s central bank held interest rates at 15%, a necessary but painful measure to tame inflation. The country’s composite PMI inched up to 48.2, but its services sector remained in contraction at 47.7.

Foreign exchange flows surged to $5.785 billion, a sign of capital seeking higher returns, but gross fixed investment plummeted by 10.4% year-over-year in Mexico, underscoring the region’s struggle to attract long-term capital.

Asia offered contrasts. Singapore’s retail sales fell by 1.4% month-over-month, though they grew by 2.8% annually—a slowdown from previous months.

South Korea’s current account surplus widened to $13.47 billion, but Japan’s wage growth, at 1.9%, barely kept pace with inflation.

Australia’s trade balance soared to AUD 3.938 billion, thanks to a 7.9% jump in exports, while Japan’s composite PMI held steady at 51.5, suggesting modest growth.

The day’s takeaway was simple: economies that foster stability, invest in productivity, and avoid erratic policy shifts are the ones where businesses expand and consumers spend.

Those that rely on stopgap measures or resist reform find themselves trapped in cycles of decline.

For global observers, the pattern is clear—growth doesn’t happen by accident. It’s the result of choices, and the cost of getting them wrong is measured in jobs, wages, and lost opportunities.