Global Economy Briefing for October 2, 2025

China was closed for National Day. India observed Gandhi Jayanti. Trading felt thinner across Asia.

OPEC output inched up. Saudi Arabia pumped 9.85 million barrels a day. Iran rose to 3.38 million. Iraq hit 4.01 million. The UAE reached 3.35 million.

Venezuela climbed to 0.95 million. Nigeria slipped to 1.55 million. More barrels ease near-term scarcity but test price discipline.

Borrowing costs kept rising in Europe. France sold 10-year bonds at 3.51 percent. Spain cleared five- and seven-year paper at 2.483 and 2.922 percent. The U.K. sold 10-year gilts at 4.769 percent. Higher yields tighten global financial conditions.

Labor and prices showed a mixed tone. Eurozone unemployment ticked up to 6.3 percent. Italy stood at 6.0 percent.

Spain reported 4,800 fewer jobless people. Switzerland’s CPI fell 0.2 percent on the month and rose 0.2 percent on the year. Domestic pressures there stayed muted.

Global Economy Briefing for October 2, 2025

The United States showed fewer planned layoffs. September cuts were 54,064. That was down 25.8 percent from a year earlier. Natural gas storage rose by 53 billion cubic feet.

The build missed expectations and hints at firmer winter prices. The Fed’s balance sheet fell to 6.587 trillion dollars. Reserve balances slipped to 2.980 trillion. Quantitative tightening continued.

Asia’s signals were steady to soft. Japan’s consumer confidence improved to 35.3. The jobs-to-applicants ratio eased to 1.20.

Unemployment rose to 2.6 percent. Services PMI firmed to 53.3. Singapore’s manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1. Hong Kong retail sales rose 3.8 percent year on year.

From Brazil, inflation pressures quickened. São Paulo’s IPC-Fipe rose 0.65 percent in September. South African vehicle sales jumped 24.3 percent. Total sales reached 54,700 units.

The story behind the story

Three forces are shaping the outlook. Oil supply is creeping higher while demand into winter is uncertain. Long-term rates are climbing and tightening credit. Jobs markets are cooling without cracking, which slows wage heat but still restrains spending.

Higher oil and higher yields lift costs for households and firms. Trade and investment plans face tougher math. For Brazil and other open economies, financing will be pricier and demand uneven abroad.

Growth is slowing, not stalling. The next moves by OPEC and central banks will set the winter tone.

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