Datafolha Finds 46% Reject Flávio, 45% Lula
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Thursday, 22 October, 10:19 p.m. ET · Source: Datafolha, via Folha de S.Paulo
Key Facts
- The numbers 46% of voters say they would never vote for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, and 45% say the same of Lula.
- What changed Flávio’s rejection rose 2 points from 44% a week earlier, while Lula’s fell 1 point from 46%.
- Who else Another 3% reject both candidates and 6% reject neither, so some outlets report 48% for each.
- Margin of error 2 points either way at 95% confidence, so the two rejection rates are a statistical tie.
- Fieldwork 2,154 voters were interviewed from Tuesday 20 to Thursday 22 October (registration BR-09709/2026).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance and Lula 23.5% (22 October, 10:19 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 24% and 24%), as of 22 October, 10:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October, and the survey cannot say how rejection will turn into votes.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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A new Datafolha poll shows Brazilian voters almost equally unwilling to back either runoff candidate: 46% reject Flávio Bolsonaro and 45% reject Lula. The polling institute released the figures on Thursday 22 October, three days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is Brazil’s president. Rejection means the share of voters who say they would not vote for a candidate under any circumstances, and our Brazil election polls tracker lists every survey.
What the Rejection Numbers Show
Datafolha asked voters in whom they would not vote in the second round, and 46% named Flávio Bolsonaro while 45% named Lula, Metrópoles reported. The survey interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 and older from 20 to 22 October and has a 2-point margin of error.
Another 3% of voters reject both men and 6% reject neither, Poder360 reported. Outlets that add the “both” group to each candidate report 48% for both Flávio and Lula, which is the same result counted differently.
The institute said the two rejection rates are tied within that margin, Metrópoles reported. Datafolha ran the survey for TV Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, and the electoral court (TSE) registered it as BR-09709/2026.
How Rejection Moved in a Week
A week earlier, Datafolha found 44% rejecting Flávio and 46% rejecting Lula, O Liberal reported for the poll released on 15 October. Flávio’s rejection has therefore gained 2 points, while Lula’s has lost 1.
Both moves are inside the margin of error, so they show a direction but do not prove a change. Lula was the more rejected candidate last week, and the two are now level.
How This Fits the Vote Poll
The same Datafolha survey has Flávio at 47% and Lula at 46% in raw totals, and each at 50% of valid votes. Our report on that Datafolha poll has the full vote numbers.
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how Brazil’s electoral authority announces results. A high rejection rate for both men means many voters will choose the candidate they dislike less.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this evenly split can mean sharp price moves when the count ends on Sunday night. Brazil’s currency, the real, is also exposed to the result.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner sets Brazil’s course with Washington for four years. Rejection is one signal among several, so treat it with the vote figures and not as a forecast.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (22 October, 10:19 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$192 million in trades.
These are bets, not polls, and Polymarket favours Flávio even though the survey shows a tie. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.6% · Lula 23.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 24%
As of 22 October, 10:20 pm ET (03:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The sources we reviewed do not say how rejection splits by region, income or age. It is not known how many rejected voters will still turn out on Sunday.
Rejection measures a stated attitude on the days of interviews and does not forecast the result. Whether the gap moves again before the vote is not known.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who do more Brazilians reject, Flávio or Lula?
Datafolha found 46% reject Flávio Bolsonaro and 45% reject Lula, a tie within the 2-point margin of error. The poll was released on Thursday 22 October.
What does rejection mean in a poll?
Rejection is the share of voters who say they would not vote for a candidate in any case. Datafolha asked in whom respondents would not vote in the second round.
How did rejection change from last week?
Flávio’s rejection rose from 44% to 46%, and Lula’s fell from 46% to 45%. Both moves are inside the margin of error.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, three days after this poll was released. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
How many voters did Datafolha interview?
Datafolha interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16 and older from 20 to 22 October. The margin of error is 2 points at a 95% confidence level.
Sources: Metrópoles; Poder360; Space Money; Portal AL7; O Liberal (previous poll, 15 October 2026); other items 22 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief