COLCAP Slides 9% From High as BanRep Hikes to 10.25%

Colombian equities sold off for a second consecutive session on Thursday as the MSCI COLCAP dropped 2.00% to close at 2,328.23, bringing the two-day cumulative loss to 3.7% after Wednesday’s 1.75% decline. The index is now 9.1% below its January 27 all-time high of 2,562.00 and has entered correction territory, though it remains up approximately 12.5% year-to-date — still one of the strongest-performing equity markets in Latin America.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Ecopetrol was the heaviest drag, falling 2.02% to COP 2,185 on volume of 15.3 million shares. The stock has been under pressure from multiple fronts: President Petro’s warning that the company would go bankrupt if Brent dropped below US$60 per barrel drew a sharp rebuke from the USO workers’ union, which noted the actual breakeven is closer to US$50 with a lifting cost of US$12. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley estimates that Ecopetrol’s Q4 2025 revenues fell 11% year-over-year with profits contracting 35%, further weighing on sentiment ahead of the earnings release. Credicorp Capital projects the 2026 dividend at approximately COP 135 per share, well below prior years.

The session was not uniformly negative. Banco Davivienda Pf had surged 3.91% on Wednesday to COP 28,700, and GEB gained 2.23% to COP 2,975 in that session, though both gave back some gains on Thursday. Cementos Argos hit a fresh all-time high on Wednesday at COP 13,940 (+2.05%) before the broader selloff resumed. Grupo Cibest (Bancolombia), which accounts for approximately 35% of the index, traded at around COP 83,700, consolidating after its multi-month rally.

Corporate news remained dominated by the Ecopetrol outlook. The company has budgeted COP 22–27 trillion in capital expenditure for 2026 under a US$60 Brent assumption, while the fiscal implications of lower dividends are straining government finances — the state owns 88.49% of the company. Separately, J.P. Morgan projects Grupo Cibest will pay dividends of approximately US$1.4 billion in 2026, supported by declining credit costs and strong digital banking growth, though it sees lower credit expansion ahead.

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The Colombian peso snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday as the dollar rose 0.31% to COP 3,671.01 on the official TRM. The move was modest but broke the pattern of peso strength that had pushed the pair as low as COP 3,603.14 on February 2 — the strongest reading in over two years. The peso remains 2.29% stronger year-to-date and 11.62% firmer versus the same date in 2025.

The Dollar Index was the primary driver, rising to 96.83 after stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls (+130,000 vs. 70,000 consensus, with unemployment falling to 4.3%). The data reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, with markets now pricing two 25-basis-point cuts for the year (June and September) rather than three. Friday’s January CPI report looms as the next catalyst — consensus expects headline inflation at 2.5% (from 2.7%) and core at 2.5% (from 2.6%).

Brent crude edged higher to US$69.68 per barrel (+0.39%), supported by lingering US-Iran tensions despite recent diplomatic talks in Oman. Reports suggested Washington may consider intercepting tankers carrying Iranian crude, keeping a geopolitical risk premium in prices. However, the EIA released its weekly data showing a surprise build of 8.53 million barrels in US crude inventories, and the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent averaging just US$58/bbl for 2026 — a headwind for Ecopetrol and Colombia’s fiscal position if realized. Gold, meanwhile, surged to US$5,115.54 per ounce, up 1.68% on the day.

Thursday’s 2.00% decline produced a decisive red candle that broke below the 2,355 support zone and closed at 2,328.23 — the lowest level since late January. The session opened at 2,374.55, reached an intraday high of 2,376.75, but sellers dominated from the open, pushing the index down to a low of 2,323.94 before a modest bounce into the close. The bearish engulfing pattern confirms the near-term correction from the January 27 all-time high of 2,562.00.

The moving average structure remains constructive on a medium-term basis despite the near-term weakness. The 200-day SMA at 1,906.26 sits 22% below current levels, confirming the primary uptrend is far from threatened. However, the index is now testing the EMA cluster in the 2,300–2,328 zone, which represents the first significant dynamic support. The Ichimoku cloud provides additional support in the 2,240–2,300 area.

Momentum indicators are deteriorating. The RSI stands at 65.31/47.64 — the primary reading still in the upper zone but the smoothed line falling rapidly toward the neutral 50 mark, signaling fading upward momentum. More concerning, the MACD histogram has dropped to −23.18, firmly in negative territory, with the signal lines at 59.05/35.87 now diverging as the faster line crosses below the slower one. This bearish crossover suggests the correction may have further to run before a tradeable bottom is established.

The 4-hour chart reveals the granular deterioration in the COLCAP’s near-term structure. Price has decisively broken below the ascending channel that had supported the index since early January, with the most recent candles closing at 2,323.94 — below the 4H EMA cluster in the 2,355–2,376 zone that had previously acted as dynamic support. The Bollinger Bands are widening to the downside, with the lower band at 2,300.90 serving as the next immediate support target.

The 4-hour RSI at 46.67/39.84 has slid into the lower half of the neutral range, with the smoothed line approaching the 40 level that has marked prior reversal zones during this rally. The MACD histogram at 1.27 is barely positive, having spent most of recent sessions in negative territory, while the signal lines at −6.96/−8.24 remain below zero, confirming the short-term bearish momentum. The 4H Ichimoku cloud overhead in the 2,355–2,375 zone now acts as resistance, meaning any bounce will face immediate selling pressure near those levels.

Banco de la República’s January 30 decision to hike rates by 100 basis points to 10.25% — the first increase since the tightening cycle peaked in late 2023 — has reshaped the Colombian macro landscape. The central bank cited a sharp rise in inflation expectations (analyst median jumping from 4.6% to 6.4% for year-end 2026) driven by the historically large minimum wage increase and persistent excess demand. Core inflation rose from 4.85% to 5.02% between November and December 2025, triggering alarm within the board. The vote split was 4–2–1: four for the 100-bps hike, two for a 50-bps cut, and one for holding steady.

The policy reversal carries significant implications for Colombian markets. Higher rates support the peso but pressure equity valuations, particularly for leveraged companies and real estate investment trusts. The BanRep’s technical staff estimates Colombia grew 2.9% in 2025, driven by vigorous consumption, but the current account deficit widened to an estimated 2.4% of GDP (from 1.6% in 2024) as imports surged. The central bank explicitly warned that inflation is expected to rise during 2026 before converging back toward the 3% target in 2027.

Externally, the US jobs report dominated Thursday’s narrative. Nonfarm payrolls of 130,000 beat the 70,000 consensus, with unemployment falling to 4.3% and wages rising 0.4% monthly. However, as noted in the broader regional context, the 898,000 downward revision to 2025 employment — the second-largest negative revision since the 2009 crisis — complicates the picture. For Colombia, the net effect is mixed: a stronger dollar (via reduced Fed cut expectations) pressures the peso, but lower US rates over the medium term would channel flows into high-yielding emerging market assets where Colombia’s 10.25% policy rate now offers among the most attractive real yields in the region.

Report compiled by The Rio Times • Data sources: BVC, Investing.com, La República, Banco de la República, Bloomberg Línea, Valora Analítik, EIA, TradingView • Charts: TradingView (BVC:ICAP) • Published February 13, 2026