Bitcoin Slides to $66K as Bear Cycle Deepens

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Bitcoin drifted lower on Thursday to $66,231, continuing to consolidate within the $60,000–$72,000 range that has defined price action since the early February breakdown. The 24-hour session saw BTC trade between $65,088 and $68,399, with perpetual funding rates remaining neutral — a sign that the leveraged long squeeze that triggered the initial crash from $70,000+ has largely exhausted itself. Volume across the top 30 perpetual contracts totaled $3.27 billion for BTC alone, still elevated relative to pre-correction levels.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of cryptocurrency markets and Latin American financial markets.

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The macro backdrop remains the dominant driver. Bitcoin has been effectively trading as a high-beta tech proxy rather than a safe-haven asset, with its correlation to the Nasdaq intensifying as the AI-driven equity rotation continues. The Nasdaq dropped 2.03% on Thursday after Cisco’s 12% plunge on weak guidance, and BTC followed suit. Meanwhile, gold at $4,977 and silver at $78.55 sold off sharply (silver down 6.22%), suggesting the recent precious metals rally is also taking a breather — removing one of the few cross-asset tailwinds crypto had enjoyed.

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The ETF flow picture is cautiously constructive. After $5.7 billion in cumulative outflows from November through January, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded back-to-back inflows of $616 million on February 7–10 — the first consecutive positive days in a month. Ark Invest and Fidelity led the buying. However, total BTC held in ETFs is still down only 6% from October’s peak despite a 47% price decline, indicating that the majority of ETF holders are sitting on losses but not capitulating. This “diamond hands” behavior creates a higher floor but also means any catalyst for renewed outflows could trigger a waterfall toward the $60,000 support.

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Among altcoins, the session was mixed with a clear risk-off tilt. Berachain (BERA) fell 17% as post-launch selling pressure intensified, Magic Eden (ME) dropped 12% on weak NFT volume metrics, and LayerZero (ZRO) shed nearly 11%. On the upside, Clore.ai (CLO) surged 48% on AI-compute narrative momentum, and meme tokens RIVER and MOODENG posted double-digit gains — a pattern typical of bear-market micro-bubbles where speculative capital concentrates in low-cap tokens while majors drift.

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Daily timeframe: The daily chart shows BTC at $66,215, trading well below the Ichimoku cloud with the entire cloud structure (Senkou Span A at 78,935 / Span B at 84,918) acting as massive overhead resistance. The 200-day SMA at 92,589 sits even higher — confirming the long-term bearish regime shift since the $126,186 ATH. The Tenkan-sen at 67,914 and Kijun-sen at 75,793 form the immediate resistance levels. MACD remains deeply bearish with the signal line at −5,287 and MACD line at −5,863, though the histogram at −576 is contracting, suggesting the selling momentum is decelerating. RSI at 29.44/28.19 has entered oversold territory — the most depressed reading since the initial capitulation, but oversold can stay oversold in a trending bear market. The lower Bollinger Band at 58,997 marks the extreme downside target.

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4-hour timeframe: The 4H chart reveals a tighter consolidation between $65,000 and $68,400. Price at $66,218 sits below the Ichimoku cloud (Tenkan-sen at 66,738 / Kijun-sen at 67,454), suggesting the short-term trend is also bearish. The 200-period SMA at 83,159 is far above, confirming the medium-term downtrend. The MACD histogram has recently flipped to small green bars at −36 (signal at −878, MACD at −914), hinting at nascent mean-reversion pressure. RSI at 40.32/40.14 is neutral-to-weak, suggesting neither oversold bounce conditions nor fresh momentum to the downside. The Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band (65,327), with the middle band at 66,722 and upper band at 68,187 defining the range. A sustained close above 68,341 (Senkou Span A on 4H) would be the first meaningful bullish signal.

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Today, February 13 — U.S. January CPI: The most important data point for crypto this week. A soft print (at or below 2.4% headline) would reinforce June rate-cut expectations and could trigger a relief rally toward $70,000. A hot print (above 2.6%) would likely push BTC back toward $63,000–$65,000 as rate-cut hopes fade. The reaction function is binary and amplified in crypto due to thin weekend liquidity ahead.

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ETF flow momentum: The back-to-back inflows of $616 million are encouraging but need to sustain through this week to confirm a regime shift. BlackRock‘s IBIT, which led outflows earlier, was a net buyer on Feb 10. Watch whether institutional capital continues to treat $66,000 as an accumulation zone or whether a CPI disappointment reverses the nascent inflow trend.

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Fed chair transition: Kevin Warsh is expected to succeed Jerome Powell in May. Markets are watching whether the transition introduces policy uncertainty. Wall Street consensus projects two 25bp cuts in 2026 (June + September), but Warsh’s potential policy stance remains a wildcard. A more hawkish-than-expected Warsh appointment could cap crypto’s recovery potential.

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Cycle positioning: The post-halving four-year cycle framework suggests 2026 is the bear leg. Bitcoin peaked at $126,186 in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving — consistent with historical patterns. The question is whether $60,000 is the cycle bottom or merely a waystation. Cathie Wood argues Bitcoin will thrive amid “deflationary chaos” from AI, while Canary Capital’s McClurg sees $50,000 by summer. The truth likely lies in whether ETF holders capitulate or continue to absorb supply.

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