(Analysis) Brazil’s Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL), established 24 years ago, aimed to stabilize finances but now faces challenges from ongoing deficits.
The government first saw a major refinancing of debts in 2014, marking a turn towards consistent financial shortfalls.
Today, Brazil struggles with managing a growing public debt, spurred by spending exceeding revenue.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva targets eliminating the deficit by 2024, though he anticipates potential setbacks throughout his term.
Critics initially feared the FRL would force unpopular cuts, especially in an election year.
Despite these fears, the law initially improved public accounts and transparency but failed to prevent the eventual fiscal downturn.
In the past year, Brazil’s federal spending surpassed its revenue by R$230.5 billion ($45.2 billion), not counting interest expenses.
The total public debt, encompassing federal, state, and municipal levels, hit 75.7% of GDP by March. This figure challenges stabilization efforts significantly.
Economist Selene Peres Nunes, a FRL co-author, criticizes current policies for weakening fiscal discipline.
The government has set a lenient target for the deficit, permitting a 0.25% GDP tolerance, potentially lowering fiscal standards.
This approach pushes stricter fiscal targets to post-2027, beyond Lula’s current term.
Public investment has also declined, particularly since 2014. In 2010, public investment was 1.15% of GDP.
By 2014, it was 0.99%. Last year, it dropped to 0.54%, with one-third allocated to parliamentary amendments often unrelated to national development projects.
State debt has decreased, but Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, and Minas Gerais remain on alert.
Brazil’s Fiscal Responsibility Law Faces Crisis
When the FRL was enacted, 17 states had debts exceeding their revenues.
Today, only four states (Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo) face this issue.
Regional debt fell from 73% of net current revenue in 2016 to 31% in 2022, according to the National Treasury.
However, Rio de Janeiro (188%), Rio Grande do Sul (185%), and Minas Gerais (168%) remain high-risk.
The FRL sets strict limits on debt and personnel spending, but challenges remain as some states exceed these limits and others bypass them through outsourced services.
Additionally, ongoing refinancing and judicial decisions that impose fiscal burdens on the federal government further complicate compliance with the FRL.
This fiscal landscape, characterized by reduced investment and persistent deficits, coupled with legal and policy constraints, forms a complex scenario for Brazil’s financial future.
The situation requires careful management to avoid exacerbating the already strained public finances.
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