Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for October 23, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amid cautious optimism from Embraer’s record $31.3 billion order backlog—its largest ever, spanning commercial ($15.2 billion), business aviation ($7.3 billion), defense ($3.9 billion), and services ($4.9 billion)—highlighting resilience in regional aviation and export potential for high-skill jobs.
Meanwhile, President Lula’s upcoming meeting with U.S. President Trump in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday aims to repair strained trade ties, seeking tariff relief for Brazilian exports like food and energy while offering U.S. firms regulatory predictability, potentially easing uncertainty for cross-border flows.
Vale’s sustained Q3 iron-ore momentum (94.4 million tons, +4% YoY) and copper uptick (+6% to 90.8KT) bolster commodity anchors, as fiscal package delays test credibility near a R$30.2 billion primary deficit.
Today’s agenda features Brazil’s BCB National Monetary Council Meeting at 8:00 AM BRT, a pivotal event that could signal Selic adjustments amid 15% rates and fiscal strains, influencing borrowing costs and growth outlook.
Key global highlights include U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales (8:30–10:00 AM BRT) for dollar and EM inflow cues; Japanese National Core CPI (7:30 PM BRT) for yen and commodity demand; Australian Manufacturing PMI (6:00 PM BRT) for iron-ore signals; Mexican half-month CPI and Retail Sales (8:00 AM BRT) for regional trends; and ECB’s Lane Speaks (9:30 AM BRT) for euro export dynamics.
These matter as U.S. data test USD/BRL (~5.40) and B3 carry trades, while Japan/Australia underpin Vale’s strength; the BCB meeting anchors credibility amid Lula-Trump trade reset and Embraer backlog visibility, testing fiscal package reception and October’s R$5.4 billion outflows.
Economic Agenda for October 23, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)
- 8:00 AM BRT – BCB National Monetary Council Meeting
Actual: TBD, Consensus: TBD, Previous: N/A
Implication: Policy signals on Selic (15%) guide yields, impacting fiscal package and B3 inflows amid R$30.2B deficit.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)
- 8:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 223K, Previous: 218K
Implication: Lower claims ease USD, lifting real and Ibovespa. - 10:00 AM BRT – Existing Home Sales (Sep)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 4.06M, Previous: 4.00M
Implication: Stronger sales firm USD, pressuring USD/BRL. - 10:00 AM BRT – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Implication: Hawkish tones firm yields, testing real.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)
- 2:45 AM BRT – French Business Survey (Oct)
Actual: 101, Consensus: 96, Previous: 97
Implication: Stronger survey boosts eurozone sentiment, curbing Brazil exports. - 9:30 AM BRT – ECB’s Lane Speaks
Implication: Dovish hints soften euro, enhancing steel/soy edge. - 10:00 AM BRT – Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: -15.0, Previous: -14.9
Implication: Undershoot aids risk-off, pressuring Ibovespa.
United Kingdom (GBP)
- 4:30 AM BRT – BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
Implication: Dovish views ease GBP, lifting carry trades. - 6:00 AM BRT – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: -28, Previous: -27
Implication: Weaker orders reduce hike odds, aiding Ibovespa. - 7:01 PM BRT – GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: -20, Previous: -19
Implication: Deterioration tests sterling, impacting EM flows.
Mexico (MXN)
- 8:00 AM BRT – 1st Half-Month Core CPI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 0.19%, Previous: 0.22%
Implication: Softer core eases Banxico hikes, supporting peso peers. - 8:00 AM BRT – 1st Half-Month CPI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 0.36%, Previous: 0.18%
Implication: Uptick pressures nearshoring, curbing B3. - 8:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales MoM (Aug)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%
Implication: Modest gain signals consumption, aiding regionals. - 8:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales YoY (Aug)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: N/A, Previous: 2.4%
Implication: Steady growth bolsters MXN, influencing LatAm.
Canada (CAD)
- 8:30 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales MoM (Aug)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 1.3%, Previous: -1.2%
Implication: Rebound supports CAD, aiding commodity ties. - 8:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales MoM (Aug)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 1.0%, Previous: -0.8%
Implication: Upturn lifts oil demand signals for Petrobras.
Japan (JPY)
- 7:30 PM BRT – National Core CPI YoY (Sep)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 2.9%, Previous: 2.7%
Implication: Higher inflation firms yen, curbing USD and real. - 8:30 PM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 48.6, Previous: 48.5
Implication: Steady contraction pressures steel demand for Vale. - 8:30 PM BRT – Services PMI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: N/A, Previous: 53.3
Implication: Resilience aids risk assets.
Australia (AUD)
- 6:00 PM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: N/A, Previous: 51.4
Implication: Expansion lifts iron-ore, supporting Vale. - 6:00 PM BRT – Services PMI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: N/A, Previous: 52.4
Implication: Strong services aid AUD, commodity peers. - 8:05 PM BRT – RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Implication: Policy hints guide AUD, impacting Brazil exports.
South Africa (ZAR)
- 1:00 PM BRT – SARB Monetary Policy Review
Actual: TBD, Consensus: N/A, Previous: N/A
Implication: Hold signals EM stability, commodity peers.
Why These Events Matter: The BCB meeting (8:00 AM BRT) shapes Selic path amid 77.5% GDP debt, critical for fiscal package (>R$20B impact) and Lula-Trump trade reset reception.
U.S. jobless claims and home sales (8:30–10:00 AM BRT) test dollar (~99), influencing USD/BRL (~5.40) and B3 amid Embraer backlog boost.
ECB/Japan tones (9:30 AM–7:30 PM BRT) guide euro/yen, affecting steel/soy; Australian PMIs (6:00 PM BRT) signal iron-ore for Vale; Mexican data (8:00 AM BRT) reflects LatAm resilience. These gauge EM credibility, commodity flows, and tariff risks, impacting October outflows and institutional trust.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 0.55% to 144,872.79 on October 22, 2025, edging toward 145,000 as Vale’s record Q3 iron-ore output (94.4 million tons) and oil firmness propelled Petrobras, overpowering U.S. equity pullbacks.
Trading volume hit R$17.9 billion ($3.38 billion), with banks gaining as fiscal noise—revenue on fintechs/betting and spending controls—faded. Dollar closed at R$5.3969.
Top gainers: Vamos (VAMO3) +5.48% on Q3 revenue R$1.529 billion (+25% YoY); Aura Minerals (AURE3) +3.82%; MRV (MRVE3) +3.46%; PRIO (PRIO3) +3.02%; Cogna (COGN3) +2.44%.
Decliners: Assaí (ASAI3) -7.08% post-downgrade; Fleury (FLRY3) -2.69%; São Martinho (SMTO3) -2.39%; Raízen (RAIZ4) -2.08%; Eletrobras (ELET3) -1.49%.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed lower on October 22, 2025, digesting mixed Q3 earnings and U.S.-China trade tensions. Dow fell 0.7% to 46,590; S&P 500 -0.5% to 6,699; Nasdaq -0.9% to 22,740; Russell 2000 -1.5%.
Tech/consumer discretionary/comms led declines; utilities/healthcare held up. Bond yields eased; dollar edged higher.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.88% to 61,308 on October 22, 2025, pausing ahead of U.S. CPI. Peso steadied at 18.44, range 18.35–18.60; insurers/building materials/nearshoring outperformed, metals/mining lagged.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s S&P Merval edged up modestly on October 22, 2025, holding steady pre-vote; peso official ~1,490, blue ~1,540 (3–4% gap); leaders in banks/industrials, laggards utilities.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s COLCAP climbed to ~1,915 on October 22, 2025, with peso steady at 3,907 (range 3,860–3,930). Oil firmness aided; winners Grupo Nutresa +4.87%, Bolsa de Valores +2.81%; losers ETB -8.00%, Ecopetrol -1.17%.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s S&P IPSA fell 0.7% to 9,049 on October 22, 2025, balancing copper firmness against dollar strength; peso ~950 (range 948–956).
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real steadied near R$5.40 on October 22, 2025, trading 5.38–5.45 and closing at 5.3969, coiled amid fiscal package wait (revenue on digital banks/betting, spending rules) and U.S. dollar firmness from trade tensions.
Support 5.36–5.37, resistance 5.42–5.45; neutral momentum hides credibility test—clear package could break lower.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin steadied near $108,900 on October 22, 2025, in $108,000–$109,000 range after $100M ETF outflows; support $108,000/$106,000, resistance $109,500–$111,000.
Ethereum ~$3,845 (support $3,680); Solana low-$180s on HK ETF nod; outperformers RIVER +78%, COAI +68%; fragile liquidity rules via ETF/CME.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Dollar firmness and fiscal delays cap inflows despite Embraer’s $31.3B backlog visibility and Lula-Trump trade reset potential; LatAm M&A reset to fewer/bigger bets (Q3 value +24% to $78.1B, Brazil +8%) signals selective discipline.
Vale’s Q3 fines sales (86MT at $94.40/ton) and copper track 2025 high-end guidance amid China; Petrobras oil ties to U.S. data; rare-earth push ($2.17B investments 2025–29, Serra Verde 5KT oxides) eyes magnet hub status. Correios seeks R$20B rescue for restructuring amid R$4.3B H1 losses, testing taxpayer burden.
Key Developments
Embraer Record Backlog: Q3 2025 backlog hits $31.3B (commercial $15.2B with E195-E2 orders; business $7.3B, 41 deliveries incl. 2,000th jet; defense $3.9B on KC-390/A-29 wins; services $4.9B record); total 62 deliveries fill regional gap, boosting jobs/exports.
Lula-Trump Meeting: Sunday Kuala Lumpur sidelines ASEAN Summit; seeks U.S. tariff relief for Brazil exports, steadier ties; potential working groups on trade, reducing business uncertainty amid $37B ASEAN flows.
Vale Q3 Record: Iron-ore 94.4MT (+4% YoY, S11D peak); sales 86MT; copper 90.8KT (+6%), nickel 46.8KT flat; fines premium $94.40/ton, pellets down 23% to 8MT at $130.80; on track for 2025 upper guidance, signaling steel stability.
Claro Brasil Profit Surge: Q3 net profit R$1.04B (+44% YoY), revenue R$13.01B, EBITDA R$5.93B (45.4% margin); postpaid/bundles drive ARPU R$27, fiber +86K to 10.53M lines, 89M total mobile.
IRB Brasil RE Profit: August net R$35.7M (+23% YoY), loss ratio 55.8% (from 65.7%), underwriting R$60.2M; premiums R$354.4M on renewals, turnaround via risk discipline.
JSL Q2 Signals: Logistics revenue R$2.38B, EBITDA R$492M (21.6% margin); mix food/beverages 24%, e-commerce +6%; capex R$17.6M, resilient via repricing.
Trisul Q2 Signals: Housing net debt R$416M (26.6% book), launches guide R$1.5–2B; land bank R$5.7B barbell economic/premium, liquidity for sales.
Romi Q2 Signals: Capital goods backlog focus; order intake/utilization for margins, three-leg model (machines/systems/parts) rewards even loading.
Brazil Rare-Earth Push: 21MT reserves, Serra Verde 5KT oxides 2024; $2.17B investments 2025–29 for processing/magnets, policy incentives to rival China.
LatAm M&A Reset: Q3 2,118 deals (-4%), value $78.1B (+24%); Brazil 1,303 (+5%), PE buyouts $6.3B (+36%), asset acquisitions $14.4B (+57%).
Correios Rescue: H1 losses R$4.3B; seeks R$20B Treasury-guaranteed loan for payroll cuts/assets sales, milestones to avoid taxpayer soak.
Fiscal Package Pending: >R$20B cuts/tax revamp (fintechs/betting) to unlock budget; Haddad eyes risk trim for real/borrowing.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+8.72%
208,865.27
+8.72%
64,531.68
+1.10%
11,072.62
+1.43%
2,882,805
+4.16%
2,576.14
+2.43%
59,860.04
+0.55%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 208,865.27 | +8.72% | +21.85% | 192,114.55 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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