Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 25, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today against the backdrop of a deepening political rift in Brasília, where President Lula has weakened his grip on Congress after bypassing Senate leadership for a key Supreme Court appointment, triggering threats of fiscal “bombs” and clashes over anti-corruption bills.
Public sentiment is shifting amid renewed concerns over corruption and spending, while the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold former president Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence and preventive detention has further intensified the country’s institutional debates.
Lula insists Bolsonaro’s jailing won’t shake ties with Trump but voices growing fears over U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean near Venezuela.
On a more optimistic note, consumer confidence rose to 89.8 in November on lower inflation and a stabilizing job market, bolstered by a R$261.9 billion tax revenue surge in September, though fiscal sustainability questions linger amid business distrust in spending plans.
Lula also set a December 20 deadline for the long-stalled EU-Mercosur trade deal, claiming only technical hurdles remain—but markets eye it as yet another unfulfilled promise amid European farmer protests and ratification roadblocks.
The Ibovespa’s modest 0.33% gain to 155,277 yesterday reflected rate-cut hopes offsetting this noise, with cyclicals like MRV and Magazine Luiza leading amid a global risk-on wave.
Today’s key domestic event is at 06:30 AM BRT: Current Account (cons. –$4.85B, prev. –$9.77B) and Foreign Direct Investment (prev. $10.67B)—these matter because a narrower deficit signals improved external balances, bolstering BRL stability around 5.39 and easing Selic holdout pressures; weak FDI could amplify fiscal dominance fears and weaken the real toward 5.45.
Key global prints steer dollar flows and risk appetite:
- 02:00 AM BRT German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (cons. 0.0%, prev. -0.2%)—stagnation tempers EZ growth hopes, capping EUR and commodity bids to pressure Vale.
- 02:45 AM BRT French Consumer Confidence (Nov) (cons. 90, prev. 90)—further gloom signals BoJ-like restraint, dragging sentiment and indirectly aiding BRL carry if EM yields shine.
- 08:30 AM BRT U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) (cons. 0.4%, prev. 0.6%), Core PPI (MoM) (cons. 0.2%, prev. -0.1%)—soft data reinforces Dec Fed cut odds (80%), weakening USD and lifting Ibovespa; hot prints revive hawkish fears, firming DXY above 100 and hitting EM assets.
These matter because U.S. consumption and inflation gauge Fed path, where downside eases “higher for longer” and supports high-Selic Brazil; German/French weakness prolongs safe-haven flows but highlights EM relative appeal.
Economic Agenda for November 25, 2025
Brazil
- 06:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Oct) Cons: -4.85B Prev: -9.77B
- 06:30 AM BRT – Foreign direct investment (USD) (Oct) Cons: Prev: 10.67B
Implication: Narrower CA gap + steady FDI counters political headwinds, firms BRL below 5.40, aids equity rebound; slippage fuels outflow risks, Selic pain at 15%.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) Cons: Prev: 2.4%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) Cons: Prev: 0.6%
- 10:00 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Q3) Cons: Prev: 206M
Implication: Cooling retail tests nearshoring momentum, peso to 18.60 on weakness; surplus holds super-peso narrative, regional lift.
United States
- 08:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.6%
- 08:30 AM BRT – Core PPI (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.2% Prev: -0.1%
- 10:00 AM BRT – CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) Cons: 93.5 Prev: 94.6
Implication: Mild softening boosts cut wagers, dollar dip aids BRL inflows; resilient reads spike yields, EM pullback below key supports.
Europe
- 02:00 AM BRT – German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 0.0% Prev: -0.2%
- 02:45 AM BRT – French Consumer Confidence (Nov) Cons: 90 Prev: 90
Implication: Stagnant growth curbs EUR rally, oil drag on Petrobras; neutral prints sustain risk-on spillover to LatAm.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CA/FDI set the local tone—strength here mutes political volatility, drawing carry trades; U.S. retail/PPI dictate dollar rhythm, with misses fueling EM relief and Ibovespa push above 155k, while Eurozone gloom tempers commodity upside but underscores Brazil’s relative resilience.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa edged higher 0.33% to 155,277, shaking off a prior 2% weekly slide as Fed cut bets (80% odds for Dec) drove global risk-on, lowering U.S. yields and the dollar to R$5.39; cyclicals led with MRV, Assaí, Vamos, Allos, and Magazine Luiza up on growth bets, while Focus trimmed 2025 CPI to 4.45% and 2026 Selic to 12%, flattening the curve.
CB’s Galípolo stressed data-driven hikes if needed, downplaying political ire over high rates. Losers: CSN Mineração (- on share sale), CVC, Raízen, AZZA, Natura (profit-taking), Petrobras/Vale (ops issues), banks (Master liquidation). Political noise from Lula-Congress rift and Bolsonaro detention priced in, focus shifts to spending risks.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed higher on Monday, November 24, 2025, with the S&P 500 up 1.5% to 6,705.12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.4% to 46,448.27, and the Nasdaq Composite jumping 2.7% to 22,872.01. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies gained 1.9%.
The rally was driven by renewed hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, which could boost the economy and investment prices. AI stocks, especially Alphabet (+6.3%) and Nvidia (+2.1%), led the gains after recent volatility.
Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will have a shortened session on Friday. For the year, the S&P 500 is up 14%, the Dow is up 9.2%, and the Nasdaq has gained 18.4%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso held firm around 18.50 per USD, unchanged in an 18.50–18.53 range amid Banxico yields and global dollar weakness on Fed cut hopes.
The S&P/BMV IPC climbed 1.0% to 62,522.61 on 712M shares and >40B pesos turnover, riding Wall Street’s AI/tech surge with gainers like Industrias Peñoles, Grupo Carso, Grupo México, Genomma Lab, and Banco del Bajío; inflation at 3.61% headline/4.32% core supports resilience, aligning with medium-term uptrend.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso steadied with official wholesale at 1,424 ARS/USD, retail at 1,450, blue slightly lower, and financial dollars (MEP/CCL) above 1,500 in a narrow 1,410–1,440 corridor amid depreciation trend.
Country risk climbed above 650 bps on U.S. jobs weakness and tech rout, hitting LatAm hardest. S&P Merval dropped 3.1% to ~2.76M points, down 8% from early-Nov election peak, as policy shock nerves built ahead of Milei reforms.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso firmed to TRM 3,804.09/USD (offshore ~3,790), defying DXY strength above 100.2 via BanRep’s 9.25% rate and 5–5.5% inflation outlook, despite $4.1B FX sales and $1.6B monthly trade deficit.
MSCI COLCAP sank 2.01% below 2,000 pts on energy drags (Ecopetrol post-Canacol default) and financials (Davivienda -12.89% pre-meeting), underscoring fiscal risks eroding rally gains.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso held near 939/USD, flat but up sharply YTD in 920–970 range on election-driven orthodox policy shift and copper tailwinds, testing DXY comeback claims.
S&P IPSA dipped 0.3% to ~9,803 on 565B pesos turnover from MSCI rebalance, viewed as healthy consolidation post-rally. Election first-round win for market-friendly candidates eased prior constitutional/tax jitters, sustaining asset strength.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real held steady at ~R$5.395 (-0.12% Monday), bucking brief DXY spike above 100 on Waller’s weak-labor cut nudge (80% Dec odds to 3.50–3.75%), with Selic 15% carry and Focus 2025 CPI at 4.45% drawing inflows; export boosts from +0.4% Dalian iron ore and +1.2% Brent to $63/bbl aid terms of trade.
Technicals: Downtrend from 5.70–5.80, support 5.35/resistance 5.45; bias firm absent fiscal shocks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s fragile bounce from $80,500 lows held near $87–88k, nudging crypto cap toward $3T with intact weekly uptrend but daily/4H down-channel (support $80–82k, resistance $90–91k); year-end book-cleaning caps below $100k.
Altcoins mixed: XRP +10% to $2.22 on $180M ETF inflows (Franklin/Grayscale), ETH ~$2,900, Solana $136, Sui $1.50 as beta plays; speculatives like Fartcoin +double-digits. ETFs: $3.5B net redemptions this month, $40B weekly volume (BlackRock IBIT >half outflows), driven by liquidations/short-cover not fresh buys; sentiment in extreme fear, Dec cut bets aid risk rotation.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s solar surge continues but grid strains in Northeast-Southeast curtail 20% output (1.2 TWh wasted, 15–16% losses + R$10.3B theft), challenging utilities like Enel amid COP30 fire embarrassment and green pledge scrutiny; agribusiness eyes export relief from prior tariff lifts.
Consumer confidence up to 89.8 (from 88.5) on disinflation/labor stability and Sep tax haul at R$261.9B (vs R$208.8B), but below 100 optimism line with Focus growth/inflation worries fueling rate-cut distrust and fiscal probe risks for state firms.
Key Developments
Lula’s Congress bypass for AG Messias to Supreme Court irks Senate’s Alcolumbre, reviving R$ billions in pre-2026 “fiscal bombs” and clashing with Chamber’s Motta on anti-faction/Jan 8 amnesty bills amid shifting public views on corruption/spending—eroding left-leaning majority through 2055 but easing regs for state-linked plays.
Supreme Court rejects Bolsonaro’s house-arrest bid, upholding 27y sentence/ detention in Brasília “state room” for 2022 coup plot; defense cites age/stress, Moraes denies, full bench affirms—sparking 447k posts/116M reach (42% oppose, 35% support), amplifying democracy debates.
Lula pledges Dec 20 EU-Mercosur signing (post-1990s talks/2019 outline), “weeks away” per von der Leyen meet—but French farmer protests over meat/grain standards, enviro deforestation fears, China pivot risks, and ratification hurdles breed skepticism as another deadline slip.
Lula: Bolsonaro jail “internal STF matter” with full defense, won’t dent Trump ties; but U.S. Caribbean buildup (carrier group, nuke sub, F-35s vs Venezuela “drugs”) stokes war fears.
Sep tax revenue +25% to R$261.9B on nominal growth/high prices aids confidence (89.8 vs 88.5), but heavy burden/CB Focus inflation (4.45%) distrust clouds Selic path.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
65,110.57
+0.26%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+1.32%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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