Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for April 10, 2025
Brazilian markets face a critical day today, shaped by key domestic and international economic releases that will provide deep insights into the service sector’s performance, inflationary pressures, and global economic sentiment amid shifting U.S. tariff policies.
At 08:00 AM (BRT), Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) for February (previous: -0.2%) will offer a snapshot of activity in a key economic segment.
A continued decline could signal weakening domestic demand, pressuring economic growth and the Brazilian real, while a rebound might reflect resilience in consumer and business activity, bolstering investor confidence after recent tariff relief.
At the same time, Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) for February (previous: 1.6%) will measure annual trends, providing a broader view of the sector’s health.
A drop below expectations could underscore vulnerabilities tied to global uncertainties, whereas sustained growth might reinforce optimism about Brazil’s economic stability despite external volatility.
These indicators matter significantly as the service sector drives a large share of Brazil’s GDP, influencing employment, consumption, and monetary policy direction from the Central Bank.
Globally, at 02:00 AM (EST) / 03:00 AM (BRT), Norway’s CPI (YoY) for March (consensus: 3.0%, previous: 3.6%) will reflect inflation trends in a commodity-linked economy.
A sharper-than-expected slowdown could signal softening global demand for raw materials, potentially impacting Brazil’s commodity exports, while persistent inflation might stabilize export expectations.
At 08:30 AM (EST) / 09:30 AM (BRT), U.S. Core CPI (YoY) for March (consensus: 3.0%, previous: 3.1%) will gauge underlying inflation pressures in Brazil’s largest trading partner.
A higher-than-expected reading could fuel expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy, strengthening the dollar and pressuring the real, while a decline might ease global risk-off sentiment, supporting Brazilian assets.
Also at 08:30 AM (EST) / 09:30 AM (BRT), U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 223K, previous: 219K) will indicate labor market health. Rising claims could hint at softening U.S. demand for Brazilian goods, whereas stability or improvement might bolster commodity prices and trade flows.
India’s markets are closed all day for Mahavir Jayanti, reducing Asian market signals but not directly altering Brazil’s outlook. These releases are pivotal as they shape Brazil’s domestic economic momentum, currency stability, and export resilience in a volatile global environment, recently alleviated by U.S. tariff suspensions but still shadowed by heightened duties on China.
Economic Agenda for April 10, 2025
Brazil
- 08:00 AM – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -0.2%. Tracks monthly service sector performance, signaling domestic demand strength amid global trade shifts.
- 08:00 AM – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.6%. Measures annual service sector trends, reflecting economic resilience despite external pressures.
Norway
- 02:00 AM (EST) – CPI (YoY) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 3.0%, previous 3.6%. Indicates inflation in a commodity-driven economy, impacting Brazil’s export outlook.
United States
- 08:30 AM (EST) – Core CPI (YoY) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 3.0%, previous 3.1%. Reflects U.S. inflation trends, influencing monetary policy and Brazilian currency dynamics.
- 08:30 AM (EST) – Initial Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, consensus 223K, previous 219K. Gauges U.S. labor market conditions, critical for Brazil’s export markets and commodity prices.
India
- All Day – Holiday: Mahavir Jayanti: Markets closed, limiting Asian economic signals for Brazil.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market stabilized on April 9, 2025, with the Ibovespa hovering at 127,690 points, down a marginal 0.01%, according to TradingView data published early on April 10, 2025.
This followed Wednesday’s explosive 3.12% surge, driven by Donald Trump’s unexpected 90-day suspension of universal import tariffs, reducing them to 10% for 75 countries while escalating duties on Chinese goods to 125%.
The index traded sideways between 127,590 and 127,785 points as investors assessed the tariff relief’s implications. Retail giant Companhia Brasileira De Distribuição led Wednesday’s winners with an 18.89% jump to R$3.65, buoyed by optimism over consumer spending.
Education provider Cogna Educação gained 11.94% to R$2.25, reflecting confidence in domestic growth, while e-commerce platform Magazine Luiza surged 11.28% to R$9.77, capitalizing on the positive sentiment.
Few stocks resisted the prior day’s rally: CPFL Energia and Automob Participações held steady at R$38.70 and R$0.24, respectively, and Santos Brasil Participações edged up just 0.08% to R$13.33.
The Brazilian real stabilized at R$5.82 after a sharp recovery against the dollar, as reported by The Rio Times, reflecting market relief from tariff moderation and renewed investor confidence in Brazil’s export outlook.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets roared on April 9, 2025, posting one of their biggest gains since World War II after President Donald Trump backed off his tariffs on most nations for 90 days, even as he raised duties on Chinese imports to 125%.
The S&P 500 soared 9.5% to 5,456.90, up 474.13 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leapt 2,962.86 points (7.9%) to 40,608.45, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 12.2% to 17,124.97, gaining 1,857.06 points.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 152.45 points (8.7%) to 1,913.16. Despite the rally, the S&P 500 remains below its level from a week prior, when Trump first announced sweeping tariffs. This surge amplified global risk-on sentiment, indirectly lifting Brazilian assets.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Crude oil benchmarks rebounded sharply from four-year lows, with Brent and WTI staging a V-shaped recovery, as reported by The Rio Times.
This upturn, fueled by tariff relief and supply dynamics, supports Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues, with today’s U.S. economic data critical for sustaining momentum.
Gold Prices
Gold broke resistance levels, signaling bullish momentum past $3,000, driven by ETF inflows and safe-haven demand, per The Rio Times. This rally bolsters Brazil’s mining sector, offering export stability amid commodity market fluctuations.
Copper Prices
Copper prices continued bearish momentum, testing critical $4.40 support, as reported by The Rio Times, reflecting weakened demand tied to global industrial slowdowns. This pressures Brazil’s commodity export outlook, particularly for Vale, as trade uncertainties linger.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin consolidated at $82,000 after a powerful recovery rally, with the crypto market stabilizing, per The Rio Times. This resilience influences Brazil’s fintech sentiment, reflecting cautious optimism amid global economic shifts.
Companies and Market
Industrial Growth
Brazil’s producer prices dropped after a year of increases, as reported by The Rio Times on April 9, 2025, signaling easing inflationary pressures but potential industrial slowdowns.
Today’s Service Sector Growth data will be critical for assessing broader economic resilience amid tariff-related trade shifts.
Petrobras
Prio, a proxy for oil sector trends, faced production challenges in March due to operational interruptions, per The Rio Times, though no direct Petrobras update was provided for April 9. The oil price recovery supports Petrobras’ outlook, with today’s U.S. data pivotal for its export markets.
Brazil’s Tariff Exposure
Global trade tensions eased slightly on April 9, 2025, with Trump’s tariff suspension for 75 countries, though duties on China rose to 125%. Brazil’s direct exposure remains limited, but commodity export risks persist, with today’s U.S. and Norwegian data set to influence market direction.
Additional Companies
Companhia Brasileira De Distribuição: Surged 18.89% to R$3.65 on April 9, 2025, per TradingView, reflecting retail optimism post-tariff relief.
Cogna Educação: Gained 11.94% to R$2.25, signaling confidence in education amid domestic recovery.
Magazine Luiza: Jumped 11.28% to R$9.77, buoyed by e-commerce strength and consumer sentiment.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.52%
205,835.29
-0.52%
65,246.95
+0.42%
11,164.13
+0.36%
2,896,853
+0.95%
2,589.04
+0.25%
60,220.93
+0.91%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,835.29 | -0.52% | +21.85% | 206,911.89 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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