Brazil Revises Moved Polling Sites to 444
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 10:55 p.m. ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo, Terra, Agência Brasil
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What changed The electoral court (TSE) now counts 438 voting sections with a new address for the runoff, down from about 4,300 on Saturday 17 October.
- The numbers About 126,032 voters are affected as of 9 p.m. ET on Monday 19 October, and a later count shows 444 sections and 130,490 voters.
- The cause The court says its system carried over provisional first-round moves, which inflated the early counts.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (Monday 19 October, 10:49 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 21%), as of 19 October, 11:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The court has not said why the count swung so widely, and it may change again before the vote.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) now counts 438 voting sections with a new address for the Brazil election 2026 runoff, down from about 4,300 on Saturday 17 October. Folha de S.Paulo reported on Monday 19 October that these sections affect 126,032 voters as of 9 p.m. ET.
Our earlier report of 592,000 affected voters, based on 2,033 sections, is therefore out of date. The vote on the Brazil runoff date, Sunday 25 October, pits Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, against Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro.
How the Count Fell From 4,300 to 438
On Saturday 17 October the court’s statistics portal showed 4,289 sections with a changed location, Folha reported, and Agência Brasil gave a similar figure of more than 4,300. By about noon on Sunday the count was 2,033.
At 9 p.m. ET on Monday the total stood at 438 sections and 126,032 voters, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Terra reported 554 sections on Monday morning and 444 sections affecting 130,490 voters in the afternoon.
Agência Brasil, cited by Times Brasil, put the figure at about 130,000 voters in 22 states. The court says the numbers keep changing as local electoral zones finish their records and can still move before the vote.
Why the Court Says the Numbers Swung
The court did not tell Folha why the variation was so large. It said the adjustments also reflect keeping in the runoff some polling places that had been changed only provisionally in the first round.
Murilo Salmito, secretary-general of the court’s presidency, told GloboNews that the system treated first-round changes as lasting. “After the first round, the system understands that polling places return to their origin,” he said, as quoted by Folha, calling this an “opportunity for improvement.”
Salmito also said the real numbers for the runoff are “very low, the lowest in history,” Folha reported. The court stressed that local electoral zones, not the TSE itself, decide moves because they know each building’s condition.
Where Voters Are Affected
Minas Gerais has the most affected voters with 29,715, followed by Paraná with 17,968 and Amapá with 11,614, according to the Times Brasil report based on Agência Brasil data. The reasons include storm damage, building repairs and accessibility work.
Voters can check their address in the e-Título app, the court’s voter-ID app, or on its Electoral Self-Service website. Voting is compulsory for most adults in Brazil, so a wrong address can cost a vote.
Our earlier reports covered 592,000 voters with new polling places and 4,352 changed polling places. Both counts came from court data that has since been revised.
What It Means for US Readers
A runoff this close can turn on turnout, so confusion over polling places may feed disputes after the count. The court’s own figures now point to a much smaller problem than early data suggested.
Investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and US-listed shares should watch turnout and any court rulings on voting logistics. A smooth vote lowers the odds of a contested result that could unsettle the real and Brazilian assets.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff, and Lula 23.5% (Monday 19 October, 10:49 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$188.7 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 11:20 pm ET (04:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The court has not explained why its portal showed about 4,300 sections on Saturday and 438 two days later. It is also unclear whether the final count will match the 438 to 444 sections now reported.
It is not known whether the changes will affect turnout on 25 October.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Related: our understanding the brazil political system a guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Brazilian voters have a new polling place for the runoff?
The court’s data at 9 p.m. ET on Monday 19 October showed 438 sections and 126,032 voters. Terra reported 444 sections and 130,490 voters that afternoon.
Why did the number of changed polling places fall so much?
The court says its system carried over provisional first-round changes. Its official Murilo Salmito said the real runoff numbers are the lowest in history.
How can I check my polling place in Brazil?
Use the e-Título app or the court’s Electoral Self-Service website. Both ask for personal details such as your voter ID number.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are the two candidates.
Can the polling place numbers change again?
Yes, the court says the figures are still being updated as local electoral zones finish their records. They may change until election day.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 19 October 2026; Terra, 19 October 2026; Times Brasil (Agência Brasil), 19 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief