Brazil Oil Exports Top Soy at US$43 Billion

BRAZIL · OIL EXPORTS

Brazil oil exports have overtaken soybeans as the country’s largest single export, with crude shipments of US$43.01 billion from January to September 2026 against US$42.90 billion for soybeans, according to the trade ministry’s Comex Stat database. The FGV Ibre economics institute separately put Brazil’s oil trade surplus at a record US$31.22 billion, as Valor Econômico reported on Tuesday 20 October 2026.

For US readers the shift runs through Asia rather than the Gulf Coast, because the United States took only 5.8% of Brazil’s crude exports in the first nine months, down from 11.6% a year earlier. China took 50.7%, or US$21.82 billion, and Brazilian crude shipments to the US fell 35.8% to US$2.49 billion.

Brazil also bought US$1.24 billion of crude from the United States in the same period, which made the US its second-largest crude supplier after Saudi Arabia. We covered the wider September trade picture in Brazil Trade Surplus Hits US$7.7 Billion in September, and this article looks at the oil line behind it.

How Brazil Oil Exports Overtook Soybeans

Crude oil exports totalled US$43.01 billion from January to September 2026, up 28.6% from US$33.44 billion a year earlier, in the ministry’s database. Soybean exports were US$42.90 billion, so crude leads by about US$113 million.

Soybeans still led through August, with US$39.42 billion against US$36.51 billion for crude. September changed the order, with crude exports of US$6.50 billion, up 77.3% from September 2025, against US$3.47 billion for soybeans.

Crude made up 18.9% of Brazil’s US$34.42 billion of exports in September and 15.1% of the US$284.65 billion exported over the nine months. Valor quoted Inter economist André Valério as saying the bulk of farm exports has already been shipped by this point in the year, so he expects crude to remain the top export to the end of 2026.

Oil Trade Surplus Hits a Record

FGV Ibre’s Icomex indicator, which counts crude oil and oil products together, shows a surplus of US$31.22 billion from January to September, up 40% from the same period of 2025. That is half of Brazil’s nine-month surplus of US$62.40 billion and slightly more than the US$31.18 billion from all other goods combined.

Within that total, Icomex puts the crude surplus at a record US$37.76 billion, which matches our arithmetic from the ministry’s database of US$43.01 billion in exports less US$5.25 billion in imports. Refined products ran a deficit of US$6.54 billion, 9.3% wider than a year earlier, in a segment where Valor notes Brazil has historically run a deficit.

Prices, Volumes and the Middle East Conflict

Average crude export prices were about 17% higher than a year earlier, at US$546 per tonne against US$467 in the ministry’s data, while tonnage rose 10.1%. FGV Ibre’s own volume measure shows 12.1% growth, and Icomex coordinator Lia Valls said the conflict in the Middle East pushed up prices for both crude and refined products.

StoneX analyst Bruno Cordeiro offered one possible explanation for September’s jump, namely planned maintenance stops at domestic refineries that left more crude available for export. Inter’s Valério added that the Middle East conflict and rising domestic production also lifted volumes.

The same shock hit the import bill, with the average price of imported fuels up 35.1%, volumes down 8.1% and total spending on imported fuels up 23.2%, according to the Icomex figures in Valor. Cordeiro expects oil above US$100 a barrel in the fourth quarter, a forecast he said depends partly on a resolution of restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz after the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November.

Where Brazil’s Crude Goes

China bought US$21.82 billion of Brazilian crude from January to September, up from US$14.68 billion a year earlier, and its share rose from 43.9% to 50.7%. India’s share rose from 3.4% to 7.0%, or US$3.02 billion, in the ministry’s database.

The Netherlands (US$2.71 billion), the United States (US$2.49 billion), Spain (US$2.25 billion) and Portugal (US$2.00 billion) followed, and the European Union as a whole took about 21% against about 24% a year earlier. Valor noted that the value of crude sent to the bloc still grew 13.5%.

Brazil’s own crude imports came to US$5.25 billion, led by Saudi Arabia (US$1.65 billion), the United States (US$1.24 billion), Guyana (US$641 million) and Algeria (US$610 million). Guyana, where ExxonMobil operates the offshore Stabroek block, supplied 12.2% of Brazil’s imported crude.

Forecasts for the Rest of 2026

Valor quoted José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), as forecasting oil exports of US$59.96 billion in 2026, up 34.2%, against US$53.25 billion for soybeans. The association sees a full-year trade surplus of US$85.26 billion, against US$68.07 billion in 2025, while Inter forecasts US$89 billion.

What It Means for You

US investors and energy traders see oil, not soybeans, as Brazil’s biggest single export line, and see China rather than the United States taking the extra barrels. Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, has shares that trade in New York, so the export data matter to US holders of the stock, though the figures do not break out Petrobras itself.

Travellers and expats in Brazil see no direct change at the pump from these figures, which cover trade rather than local fuel prices. Our guide Brazil Natural Resources Explained 2026 sets out the background, and our Rio de Janeiro expat city guide covers life in the city where Petrobras has its headquarters.

What Is Not Known

We could not open FGV Ibre’s own Icomex release, so the record US$31.22 billion surplus, the 40% rise and the volume and import-price figures rest on Valor Econômico’s report of Tuesday 20 October 2026. The crude figures, shares and rankings in this article come from the trade ministry’s Comex Stat database, which we queried directly.

The ministry’s data on refined oils under heading 2710 show US$10.53 billion of exports against US$15.27 billion of imports, a gap of US$4.74 billion that does not match FGV’s US$6.54 billion deficit for refined products. We could not tell which product groupings explain the difference, and ministry figures can be revised.

It is not known whether crude will stay ahead of soybeans through December, because the lead is only about US$113 million after nine months. The AEB and Inter figures are forecasts, and the maintenance explanation for September’s jump is one analyst’s view that we could not confirm.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is oil now Brazil’s biggest export?

Yes, on nine-month figures, with crude oil exports of US$43.01 billion against US$42.90 billion for soybeans. The lead is narrow, and soybeans led until the end of August.

How big is Brazil’s oil trade surplus?

FGV Ibre’s Icomex indicator puts it at a record US$31.22 billion from January to September, half of the US$62.40 billion total surplus. Crude alone produced a surplus of US$37.76 billion, while refined products ran a deficit.

Who buys Brazil’s oil?

China took 50.7% of crude exports, or US$21.82 billion, followed by India at 7.0% and the Netherlands at 6.3%. The United States took 5.8%, or US$2.49 billion.

Why did Brazil oil exports rise?

Average export prices rose about 17% and volumes grew by roughly 10% to 12%, depending on the measure. FGV Ibre’s Lia Valls ties the price rise to the conflict in the Middle East.

What does it mean for US readers?

The United States now takes a smaller share of Brazil’s crude while China takes half, and Brazil buys US$1.24 billion of crude from the United States. US investors who hold Petrobras shares or follow the real can watch oil as a larger driver of Brazil’s export income.

Sources: Valor Econômico, 20 October 2026; Valor International, 20 October 2026; Brazil trade ministry, Comex Stat database (queried 21 October 2026); FGV Ibre, Icomex foreign trade indicator.

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