BRAZIL · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The data IBGE regional industry survey for August, released Thursday, 8 October.
- —What happened Output fell from July in 10 of 15 surveyed regions.
- —The numbers National output down 0.6% on July and 1.2% on a year.
- —Biggest drop Pará, home of the Carajás iron-ore mines, fell 7.3%.
- —What it means for you Falling mining output in Pará matters to holders of NYSE-listed Vale.
- —Still open IBGE gave no sector reasons for the monthly declines.
Brazil’s August factory slowdown was broad, and the iron-ore state of Pará posted its fifth straight monthly fall.
Brazil’s industrial output fell in ten of 15 regions in August, official data showed on Thursday, 8 October. The steepest monthly drop came in Pará, the Amazon state that hosts the Carajás iron-ore mines.
For US investors, Pará matters because Vale, the miner listed in New York as VALE, produces iron ore at Carajás. Pará’s output fell 7.3% from July and stood 19.8% below a year earlier.
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the government’s statistics agency, published the regional breakdown at 9:00 a.m. Brasília time. It details the national figure released on Friday, 2 October: output fell 0.6% from July.
Where Brazil’s Industrial Output Fell
Pará led the declines with a 7.3% fall from July, its fifth monthly drop in a row. Over those five months, output in the state has fallen a combined 19.5%.
Amazonas, home to the Manaus industrial zone, dropped 5.7%. That erased part of a 14.3% jump in July, according to IBGE.
Rio Grande do Sul fell 4.5%, ending two months of growth worth a combined 6.4%. Ceará lost 3.6%, while Pernambuco and Espírito Santo each slipped 2.5%.
São Paulo state edged down 0.2%, Santa Catarina lost 1.5% and Goiás 1.1%. The Northeast region as a whole fell 0.5%.
Bahia was the main exception, rising 3.7% for a third straight monthly gain worth 5.8% in total. Rio de Janeiro rose 1.1%, Paraná and Mato Grosso 1.0% each, and Minas Gerais was flat.
Mining Weighs on the Annual Picture
Compared with August 2025, national output was 1.2% lower, with 21 working days in both months. Twelve of the 18 locations IBGE tracks on that basis were down.
Pará’s 19.8% annual fall was the deepest, and IBGE attributed it to extractive industries: iron ore, copper and manganese. In plain terms, the state produced about one-fifth less than a year earlier.
Maranhão, a northeastern state, was 11.2% lower on food products, aluminium oxide and natural gas. IBGE publishes no seasonally adjusted monthly series for Maranhão.
The strongest gains came from oil and gas: Rio de Janeiro rose 8.3% on the year and Espírito Santo 8.0%. IBGE cited crude oil and natural gas extraction in both.
Espírito Santo also gained from pelletised iron ore. Rio de Janeiro was helped by chemicals such as polyethylene, polypropylene, herbicides and shampoos.
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+0.94%
206,220.24
+0.94%
64,986.91
+0.52%
11,024.22
+0.22%
2,832,472
+0.30%
2,525.90
-0.36%
60,766.81
-1.71%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,220.24 | +0.94% | +21.85% | 204,302.33 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
A Slowing Trend, Not a One-Month Dip
The three-month moving average fell 0.7% nationally, with 12 of 15 regions negative. That measure smooths out monthly swings, and it was negative almost everywhere.
Pará fell 4.6% on that basis, Ceará 2.8% and Pernambuco 2.0%. Bahia, up 1.9%, again stood out.
Over the first eight months of 2026, national output was still 0.8% higher than a year earlier. The 12-month rate stood at 0.6%, positive in seven of 18 locations.
Pará’s 12-month rate slid from minus 3.3% to minus 5.7%. Espírito Santo still led with 19.4% over 12 months, down from 20.1%.
What It Means for You
Holders of Vale shares should note that Pará’s extractive output has now fallen for five months. IBGE measures physical output by state, not company results, so it does not show which mines slowed.
Oil is the counterweight. Brent crude topped US$104 a barrel on Thursday, InfoMoney reported, so oil-driven gains in Rio and Espírito Santo stand out.
For US firms selling machinery, parts or inputs into Brazil, a broad factory slowdown can mean softer orders. The Central Bank of Brazil also weighs activity data when it sets the Selic, its benchmark interest rate.
What Is Not Known
IBGE did not attribute the monthly declines to specific sectors in its release. It is therefore unclear whether the fall in Amazonas came from electronics, motorcycles or other goods.
The data also does not say whether Pará’s slide reflects maintenance, licensing, weather or market decisions at individual mines. Company-level answers would come from the miners’ own production reports.
What Comes Next
IBGE will publish the September regional figures on Wednesday, 11 November. Its September consumer price index, the IPCA, is due on Friday, 9 October.
One weak month does not mean a recession, since national output is still up 0.8% this year. But ten of 15 regions falling at once shows the slowdown is not confined to one state.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is IBGE’s regional industry survey?
It is the regional edition of the monthly industrial production survey by IBGE, Brazil’s national statistics agency. It tracks factory and mining output in 15 locations with seasonally adjusted monthly data.
Which Brazilian region fell the most in August?
Pará fell 7.3% from July, its fifth straight decline. It was also 19.8% below August 2025, driven by iron ore, copper and manganese.
Did any regions grow in August?
Yes. Bahia rose 3.7%, Rio de Janeiro 1.1%, Paraná and Mato Grosso 1.0% each, while Minas Gerais was flat.
Why does this matter for US investors?
Vale, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, produces iron ore at Carajás in Pará. Broad factory weakness also feeds into the Central Bank of Brazil’s interest-rate decisions.
When is the next regional industry release?
IBGE will publish the September regional figures on Wednesday, 11 November 2026.
Sources: IBGE, regional industrial production release for August 2026; US SEC EDGAR, Vale S.A. filer record; InfoMoney, Vale and Carajás; InfoMoney, Thursday agenda; InfoMoney, Brent crude (all accessed 9 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief