BRAZIL · FUEL
Key Facts
- —What is happening Brent crude closed at US$113.17 a barrel on Thursday 22 October, its highest close since 4 May, while Brazil holds down pump prices with fuel subsidies that expire in November.
- —Why it matters Brazil imports about a third of its diesel, so oil near US$113 eats into the subsidies that shield drivers and truckers ahead of the Sunday 25 October presidential runoff.
- —The numbers Abicom put the gap between Petrobras diesel and import cost at BRL 3.50 a litre (about US$0.69) on 19 October, BRL 0.02 below the BRL 3.52 (about US$0.70) import subsidy.
- —Who is who Petrobras is Brazil’s state controlled oil company, Abicom is the fuel importers’ association, and the Finance Ministry sets a subsidy that the oil regulator ANP pays out.
- —What to watch Gasoline tax relief runs to Monday 9 November and the extra diesel subsidy lasts 30 days from 13 October, so a renewal decision falls soon after the runoff.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you Holders of Petrobras New York shares (PBR) watch whether Brazil renews the relief or lets Petrobras raise prices, a choice that moves its refinery revenue and Brazilian inflation.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.1% · Lula 22.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 23%
As of 23 October, 2:40 am ET (07:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Abicom put the Petrobras diesel gap within two centavos of Brazil’s import subsidy on 19 October. Gasoline tax relief ends on 9 November.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, closed at US$113.17 a barrel on Thursday 22 October, its highest close since 4 May. For Brazil, which imports about a third of its diesel, that tests the room left in the Brazil fuel subsidies.
The importers’ association Abicom calculated on Monday 19 October that Petrobras diesel sat BRL 3.50 a litre (about US$0.69) below import cost. The government’s import subsidy is BRL 3.52 (about US$0.70), so almost no margin remained.
What Oil Did on Thursday
Brent rose US$4.35, or 4%, to close at US$113.17, Brasil 247 reported from a wire text, and InfoMoney matched it. Trading Economics also put Brent above US$113 on Thursday, near the four year high of US$114.44 set on 4 May.
The rise followed Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. The Houthis, a Yemeni group aligned with Iran, claimed strikes on 19 October that Saudi authorities had not confirmed, Times Brasil reported.
Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates also cited rumours of a joint US and Israeli strike on Iran after the midterms. Saudi Aramco reportedly told staff to leave its Dhahran headquarters, Brasil 247 said.
How Brazil Cushions Pump Prices
On Friday 9 October President Lula signed Decree 13,134, zeroing federal PIS, Cofins and Cide taxes on gasoline until 9 November. The relief is BRL 0.89 a litre (about US$0.18), up from BRL 0.63 (about US$0.12).
The same decree raised the ethanol producer subsidy to BRL 0.428 a litre (about US$0.08), so ethanol stays competitive with cheaper gasoline. The Finance Ministry puts the gasoline and ethanol measures at BRL 3.6 billion (about US$0.71 billion) in 2026.
For diesel, a ministry order on Tuesday 13 October added BRL 1.40 a litre (about US$0.28) for imported road diesel. It lasts 30 days and joins the existing BRL 2.12 (about US$0.42), lifting the total import subsidy to BRL 3.52 (about US$0.70).
Planning Minister Bruno Moretti said on 9 October that the whole package costs BRL 5.2 billion (about US$1.03 billion) over 30 days. He said extra income from higher oil prices will pay for it, because Brazil exports crude.
The Finance Ministry says about 33% of the diesel Brazil consumes is imported, which is why importers get the extra aid. The Ministry of Mines and Energy says October supply is secured, with 4.184 million cubic metres offered against 3.950 million of demand.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-1.15%
204,120.12
-1.15%
69,889.73
-0.51%
10,780.31
-1.88%
3,017,221
—
2,528.42
-1.25%
59,561.23
-4.26%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,120.12 | -1.15% | +21.85% | 206,495.23 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
The Diesel Gap in Numbers
The oil regulator ANP, the National Petroleum Agency, surveyed pump prices from 11 to 17 October. Diesel S10 averaged BRL 7.34 a litre (about US$1.46), down 0.27% on the week but 21.12% above a year earlier.
Gasoline averaged BRL 6.53 a litre (about US$1.29), down 0.15% on the week and 4.98% higher than a year earlier. Pump prices have held steady for four weeks.
ANP’s before tax price for diesel A from producers and importers was BRL 3.55 (about US$0.70) in the week to 11 October. Its weekly average import parity price, what an importer pays, was BRL 6.43 (about US$1.28) in the week to 9 October.
By simple subtraction that is a difference of about BRL 2.88 (about US$0.57) in early October. Abicom’s later estimate, with Brent at US$111 on 19 October, put the gap at BRL 3.50, Eixos and Estadão Conteúdo reported.
Abicom put the gasoline gap at 20%, or BRL 0.43 a litre (about US$0.09). At the private Mataripe refinery in Bahia the gap was 44% for diesel and 11% for gasoline.
Mataripe is owned by the Mubadala fund of Abu Dhabi. Its weekly price changes keep it closer to world prices, Estadão Conteúdo reported.
Why the Calendar Matters
The gasoline relief ends on Monday 9 November, and the extra diesel subsidy lasts 30 days from its publication on 13 October. The government said it will reassess market conditions at the end of that period.
The package came 16 days before the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, and Finance Minister Dario Durigan denied an electoral motive. Both measures run past the vote, so a renewal decision lands in the first fortnight afterwards.
What It Means for US Readers
Petrobras shares trade in New York as PBR, so a refinery price rise would lift its revenue and Brazilian inflation together. A freeze keeps pump prices calm but widens the gap that importers and the Treasury must cover.
ANP’s weekly report tracks a US Gulf Coast diesel quote beside its import parity price, so US fuel markets feed the yardstick. The import aid exists to keep cargoes arriving.
Earlier reports cover the US$1.5 billion fuel credit, the gasoline tax cut, the Treasury revenue comparison and Brent near US$110. More context is in the Brazil news hub and the Brazil guide for newcomers.
What Is Not Known
Petrobras has not said whether it will change refinery prices, and no announcement was found. The Abicom gap figures are the importers’ own estimate, taken from Eixos and Estadão Conteúdo because its site could not be opened.
Abicom’s daily study showed a diesel gap of BRL 3.24 (about US$0.64) on the morning of 22 October, InfoMoney reported. The effect of the US$113 close on that gap is not yet known.
The ministry says 33% of diesel is imported, while SBT News cited ANP data of 23.14% of diesel A sales in August. The difference may reflect the period and the definition used.
The Aramco evacuation and the post midterm strike plans come from wire reports and analysts, not from official statements. It is not known whether crude will hold above US$113.
What Comes Next
Brazil votes in the runoff on Sunday 25 October. The government will reassess the fuel measures when the 30 days end, between 9 and 12 November.
None of this means a price rise is planned, and no subsidy ends before the runoff. A renewal would add to the BRL 5.2 billion (about US$1.03 billion) monthly cost.
Frequently Asked Questions
How high is oil and why did it jump?
Brent closed at US$113.17 a barrel on Thursday 22 October, its highest close since 4 May. The rise followed Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and fears of wider conflict with Iran.
What does Brazil’s diesel subsidy pay?
Importers of road diesel receive BRL 3.52 a litre (about US$0.70). That is BRL 2.12 plus an extra BRL 1.40 ordered on 13 October for 30 days.
Does Brazil’s fuel relief end before the runoff?
No, both measures outlast the Sunday 25 October vote. Gasoline tax relief runs to Monday 9 November, and the extra diesel subsidy lasts 30 days from 13 October.
What is Abicom?
Abicom is the Brazilian association of fuel importers. It regularly estimates how far Petrobras prices sit below import prices.
Will Brazilian pump prices rise?
ANP data show prices flat to lower in the week of 11 to 17 October. A rise depends on Petrobras and on whether the relief is renewed, and neither has been announced.
Sources: ANP weekly fuel price survey, edition 42; Decree 13,134 of 9 October 2026, Planalto; Ministry of Finance, 9 October; Poder360, 9 October; Times Brasil (Agência Brasil), 9 October; SBT News, 14 October; Eixos, 21 October; NovaCana (Estadão Conteúdo), 20 October; Brasil 247, 22 October; Trading Economics, 22 October; InfoMoney, 22 October close; InfoMoney, 22 October live; Times Brasil, 20 October; Exchange rates, open.er-api.com (all accessed 23 October 2026). Conversions use BRL 5.04 per US$1, rate of 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief