Brazil 8 Audios Threaten Indigenous Land If Flávio Wins
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country and home to most of the Amazon rainforest, picks its next president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- —What happened On Monday 12 October, Folha de S.Paulo reported eight audios threatening an invasion of the Apyterewa Indigenous land if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
- —The territory Apyterewa covers 773,000 hectares (about 1.9 million acres) in Pará state and is home to more than 1,000 Parakanã people.
- —Government response A federal committee agreed on Thursday 8 October to send more officers to keep invaders out of the territory.
- —Flávio’s campaign The conservative candidate’s campaign had not answered questions from Folha or from Brasil de Fato, a left-leaning news site, when both published.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (13 October, 2:19 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 87% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 13 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Audios sent to Indigenous leaders in Brazil’s Amazon say ranchers will invade their land if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 25 October runoff, a newspaper reports. For readers abroad, threats against an Indigenous land are an early test of what the vote could mean for the world’s largest tropical rainforest.
The São Paulo daily Folha de S.Paulo obtained eight of the recordings and reported them on Monday 12 October. The target is the Apyterewa territory in Pará state, which has a long history of violence and illegal forest clearing.
What the Audios Say
The messages were sent over WhatsApp in recent days by people living near the territory to Indigenous leaders, Folha reports. The newspaper says they describe farmers waiting for election day to enter the Indigenous land and build farms inside it.
According to Folha, the senders expect Flávio and Pará’s governor-elect, Dr. Daniel, to take the land from the Parakanã and hand it to ranchers. The messages also urge the Parakanã to avoid areas where ranchers are already preparing pasture, and to leave the region.
Folha’s report does not link Flávio himself to the messages, and his campaign has not commented on them.
Residents quoted in the audios describe more motorbikes and pickup trucks in the area, Folha writes. They also say farmers are buying tarpaulins and farming tools to start an occupation after the runoff.
Folha did not publish the transcripts or the senders’ names, citing safety. It says it matched the audio metadata with databases and spoke to investigators, who linked the senders to addresses around Apyterewa.
Why the Apyterewa Indigenous Land Matters
Apyterewa lies in São Félix do Xingu, a municipality on the Xingu River in Pará, and was formally recognised in 2007. Its 773,000 hectares make it larger than the US state of Delaware.
The Parakanã are classed as a people of recent contact with outsiders, Folha notes, which makes uncontrolled contact with invaders more dangerous for them. Ranchers once built a small town called Vila Renascer inside the protected area.
Data from Inpe, Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, show cleared forest in Apyterewa rising from 18.9 square kilometres in 2018 to 85.3 in 2019. It hit a record 102.2 square kilometres (about 39 square miles) in 2022, then fell to 20.6 in 2023.
Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father, was president from 2019 to 2022, and Lula took office in 2023. In 2020, Luís Roberto Barroso, then a Supreme Court justice, ordered the government to expel invaders from Indigenous lands.
Folha says Bolsonaro did not carry out the order. The removal of illegal occupants began in 2023 and met ambushes and destroyed bridges.
An official of Funai, the Indigenous affairs agency, was shot in late 2023, and a contractor for Ibama, the environmental agency, was killed in 2025.
How the Lula Government Is Responding
The audios were discussed on Thursday 8 October by the Lula government’s committee that coordinates the removal of invaders, Folha reports. The Federal Police, Funai, the Ministry of Indigenous Peoples and Ibama all said they are monitoring the situation.
In a statement to Folha, the Ministry of Indigenous Peoples said it tracks “increasing pressure for the illegal occupation of the territory”. It said the committee decided to reinforce security, including more officers on the ground, to keep invaders out.
On the audios, the ministry said establishing the facts “is a matter for the police authorities responsible for the investigation”. A Federal Police officer, speaking anonymously to Folha, called the intelligence solid and worrying.
Fire hotspots in Apyterewa jumped from 41 in July to 626 in August and 1,007 in September, according to Inpe data cited by Folha. Investigators suspect some fires were set on purpose.
Ibama told Folha it also sees signs of mobilisation in other Amazon areas, including Indigenous lands, to restart illegal gold mining.
Who Is Who in the Runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator from Rio de Janeiro for the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro. He faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), who seeks a fourth term.
Dr. Daniel, of the centre-right Podemos party, has already been elected governor of Pará, the Amazon state where Apyterewa lies. His office told Folha he would not comment, and the Pará state government did not respond.
What It Means for You
For investors and buyers of Brazilian beef and farm goods, the story shows how land conflicts in the Amazon remain tied to politics. A change of government in Brasília could shift how hard federal agencies police illegal ranching.
For travellers, nothing in the reports concerns tourist areas, and Apyterewa is a protected area deep in the Amazon, far from tourist routes. Earlier Rio Times coverage explains the court fight over mining on Indigenous land and the campaign’s final weeks.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.4% chance of winning and Lula 12.5% (13 October, 2:19 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$180.5 million in bets.
A smaller Polymarket market on who will come first in Pará gives Lula 80.5%, down 7.5 points in a day, on about US$40,900 in bets. These are bets, not polls.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.4% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 13 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The people who sent the audios have not been publicly identified, and Folha has not released the recordings. The ministry refers to a police investigation, but the Federal Police have not said publicly what stage any inquiry into the audios has reached.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign had not answered questions from Folha, sent since Thursday 8 October, or from Brasil de Fato by publication. Nothing in the reports suggests the candidate himself knew of or encouraged the messages.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Indigenous land is threatened in Brazil?
The Apyterewa Indigenous land in São Félix do Xingu, Pará state, home to more than 1,000 Parakanã people. It covers 773,000 hectares (about 1.9 million acres) of the Amazon.
Who sent the threatening audios?
People living near the territory sent them over WhatsApp, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The newspaper withheld their names and the recordings for safety reasons.
Has Flávio Bolsonaro responded?
His campaign had not answered questions from Folha or Brasil de Fato by the time they published on 12 October. Nothing reported links the candidate personally to the messages.
What is the Brazilian government doing?
A federal committee agreed on 8 October to send more security forces to keep invaders out of the Indigenous land. The Ministry of Indigenous Peoples says establishing the facts behind the audios is a matter for the police.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 12 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 12 October 2026; Opera Mundi, 12 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief