Analysis: Bolsonaro’s Recent Focus on Poorest Population Stymies the Opposition

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Jair Bolsonaro was elected President with the vote of the wealthiest. He seeks reelection with the vote of the poorest. The wealthy adopted him two years ago to defeat the PT (Workers’ Party). The middle class too, but it has always been unreliable.

Thus, Bolsonaro may lament the fact that his sudden preferential option for the poor undermines the fiscal adjustment, but so be it.

So, Paulo Guedes, what would be the point in tidying up the government so that someone else, other than Bolsonaro, could later benefit from this?

In the second round of the 2018 election, Bolsonaro won in 97 percent of the wealthiest cities, and Haddad in 98 percent of the poorest.

In the wealthiest agribusiness regions, Bolsonaro won 61.54 percent of the valid votes against 38.46 percent for Haddad.

Haddad won in more municipalities – 2,810 to 2,760. Still, Bolsonaro had 10.7 million more total votes than he did.

There was a time when the Northeasterners’ vote sustained Arena, a pseudo-party created by the 1964 military dictatorship.

And there was a time, more recently, when it sustained four PT governments. Or rather: three and a half governments.

The Northeasterners’ hearts have always beaten faster for governments or parties that have met their needs. Obviously.

With the Covid-19 emergency aid, Bolsonaro’s rejection rate in the Northeast plummeted from 52 percent in June to 35 percent now.

Guedes wanted the aid to be R$200 (US$40) per month. The Congress asked for R$500. Bolsonaro granted R$600.

The Economy Minister estimated that in its first three months, the aid cost R$152 billion.

But the aid was eventually extended for another three months. And it will remain in place until December. Guedes is willing to pay R$250. Bolsonaro wants R$300.

Opposition parties, which govern eight of the nine states in the Northeast, are perplexed and do not know what to do.

Bolsonaro has removed what used to be their prime votegetters. Bolsa Família (Family Grant) is out, Renda Brasil (Brazil Income) is in. Out with ‘Minha Casa, Minha Vida’ (My Home, My Life), in with ‘Casa Verde e Amarela’ (Green and Yellow House).

Always spending a little more money prevents the changes from looking like merely cosmetic measures or misappropriation of famous trademarks.

If Bolsonaro breaks down the Northeasterners’ doors, he will hardly fail to be reelected in 2022. It would take a broad party front to defeat him.

This will only be possible if PT agrees to give up leadership of the left-wing parties. But Lula argues that it cannot be so.

What if no other opposition candidate stands ahead of the PT candidate on the eve of the first round?

There is an argument that a candidate supported by left, right and center parties, such as PT, PSDB, DEM, PSB, PDT, could deter Bolsonaro.

What Bolsonaro most wants in 2022 is to face a PT candidate in the second round. What he most fears is to run against another type of candidate.

Source: Ricardo Noblat in Veja Magazine, August 26, 2020