IBOV 176,976 ▼ 0.17% IPSA 10,468 ▲ 0.45% IPC MEX 68,405 ▲ 0.63% MERVAL 2,816,245 ▲ 4.00% COLCAP 2,118 ▼ 0.22% BVL PERÚ 19,767 ▲ 0.37% USD/BRL 5.01 ▲ 0.45% USD/MXN 17.34 ▲ 0.29% USD/CLP 900.43 ▲ 0.00% USD/COP 3,797 ▼ 0.02% USD/PEN 3.42 ▼ 0.01% USD/ARS 1,396 ▼ 0.04% USD/UYU 40.30 ▲ 1.72% USD/PYG 6,066 ▼ 0.00% USD/BOB 6.85 ▲ 1.45% USD/DOP 59.01 ▼ 0.28% USD/CRC 451.24 ▲ 1.99% USD/GTQ 7.62 ▼ 0.05% USD/HNL 26.60 ▲ 1.45% USD/NIO 36.62 ▲ 0.50% USD/VES 516.67 ▼ 0.13% USD/PAB 1.00 ▲ 2.00% USD/BZD 2.00 ▲ 1.43% USD/JMD 157.29 ▲ 0.33% USD/TTD 6.71 ▲ 0.58% EUR/BRL 5.82 ▼ 0.82% BRENT 111.16 ▼ 0.84% WTI 104.03 ▼ 4.26% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.25 ▼ 0.43% GOLD 4,539 ▼ 0.29% SILVER 76.47 ▼ 0.79% SOY 1,217 ▲ 0.31% CORN 479.75 ▲ 0.58% WHEAT 672.50 ▲ 1.20% COFFEE 267.95 ▼ 2.99% SUGAR 14.99 ▲ 1.77% ORANGE JUICE 156.15 ▼ 5.05% COTTON 83.04 ▼ 0.79% COCOA 3,842 ▲ 1.35% BEEF 247.13 ▼ 2.67% CATTLE 358.78 ▼ 2.69% LITHIUM 83.03 ▼ 1.25% PETR4 46.44 ▲ 2.13% VALE3 81.83 ▼ 2.00% ITUB4 39.62 ▼ 0.20% BBDC4 17.66 ▼ 0.17% ABEV3 15.81 ▲ 0.76% BBAS3 20.42 ▼ 1.35% B3SA3 16.72 ▲ 0.12% WEGE3 42.34 ▼ 1.83% PRIO3 68.82 ▲ 0.03% SUZB3 41.97 ▲ 0.65% RENT3 42.97 ▼ 0.02% AZZA3 19.34 ▲ 1.52% CSAN3 4.41 — 0.00% RAIZ4 0.43 ▼ 4.44% PCAR3 2.25 ▼ 0.44% GMAT3 4.23 ▼ 2.53% PSSA3 48.70 ▲ 1.63% CVCB3 1.81 — 0.00% POSI3 3.95 ▲ 1.80% SLCE3 17.28 ▲ 0.52% NATU3 9.75 ▼ 1.91% BRKM5 12.41 ▲ 1.64% RANI3 7.85 — 0.00% CSNA3 6.15 ▼ 4.21% CMIN3 4.28 ▼ 9.32% USIM5 9.03 ▼ 0.99% GGBR4 23.26 ▼ 0.34% ENEV3 24.99 ▼ 0.28% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 44.72 ▲ 0.45% CMIG4 11.50 ▲ 2.04% EQTL3 38.61 ▲ 0.05% LREN3 13.77 ▲ 1.62% VIVT3 35.29 ▼ 0.65% RAIL3 14.90 ▼ 0.47% KLABIN 16.30 ▼ 0.79% RAIA DROGASIL 19.12 ▼ 2.40% RDOR3 34.77 ▼ 0.20% HAPV3 12.83 ▲ 3.05% FLRY3 15.62 ▲ 0.13% SMTO3 18.39 ▲ 0.77% UGPA3 29.28 ▲ 0.51% VBBR3 33.26 ▲ 0.42% BBSE3 34.12 — 0.00% BPAC11 54.18 ▼ 0.59% CURY3 29.49 ▼ 1.21% AERI3 2.32 ▼ 4.13% VIVARA 22.80 ▼ 0.61% COMPASS 26.10 ▲ 0.77% VAMOS 3.34 ▼ 2.05% SANB11 26.85 ▼ 0.26% ASAI3 8.29 ▼ 2.47% SBSP3 29.16 ▲ 0.45% WALMEX 55.96 ▲ 2.23% GMEXICO 200.40 ▼ 0.85% FEMSA 211.08 ▲ 0.32% CEMEX 22.00 ▲ 0.82% GFNORTE 188.03 ▲ 2.06% BIMBO 58.00 ▼ 2.13% TELEVISA 9.81 ▼ 1.01% AMX 23.22 ▲ 0.35% GAP 419.50 ▲ 1.80% ASUR 297.12 ▲ 0.33% OMA 226.41 ▲ 1.76% KOF 182.76 ▲ 1.16% GRUMA 299.28 ▲ 0.39% KIMBER 37.99 ▼ 0.63% SQM-B 74,600 ▼ 2.60% COPEC 6,450 ▲ 4.96% BSANTANDER 69.17 ▲ 0.26% FALABELLA 5,650 ▲ 2.72% ENELAM 76.00 ▲ 0.33% CENCOSUD 2,106 ▲ 2.23% CMPC 1,061 ▲ 0.57% BANCO CHILE 165.00 ▲ 0.79% LATAM AIR 21.35 ▼ 0.88% YPF 70,350 ▲ 8.23% GGAL 6,285 ▲ 3.71% PAMPA 4,890 ▲ 3.60% TXAR 620.00 ▲ 0.81% ALUAR 912.00 ▼ 3.03% TGS 9,115 ▲ 4.17% CEPU 2,116 ▲ 3.27% MIRGOR 17,025 ▼ 1.16% COME 44.50 ▲ 4.66% LOMA NEGRA 3,230 ▲ 4.03% BYMA 277.75 ▲ 2.02% TELECOM ARG 3,560 ▲ 1.57% ECOPETROL 13.81 ▲ 5.50% BANCOLOMBIA 64.02 ▲ 1.36% GRUPO AVAL 4.19 ▲ 4.49% CREDICORP 303.86 ▼ 3.94% SOUTHERN COPPER 171.90 ▼ 2.76% BUENAVENTURA 34.01 ▼ 0.82% MERCADOLIBRE 1,586 ▲ 2.53% NUBANK 12.29 ▲ 0.82% XP 17.34 ▼ 0.74% PAGSEGURO 9.18 ▲ 3.61% STONE 10.21 ▲ 6.24% GLOBANT 39.85 ▲ 2.42% TECNOGLASS 39.46 ▲ 2.20% GAP AIRPORT 243.41 ▲ 2.08% ASUR 297.12 ▲ 0.33% OMA AIRPORT 104.62 ▲ 1.73% AMX ADR 26.88 ▲ 1.09% FEMSA ADR 122.25 ▲ 0.72% CEMEX ADR 12.70 ▲ 1.11% PETROBRAS ADR 20.70 ▲ 3.86% VALE ADR 16.31 ▼ 0.06% ITAU ADR 7.89 ▲ 0.64% SANTANDER BR 5.40 ▲ 1.31% AMBEV ADR 3.15 ▲ 2.44% CSN 1.25 ▼ 0.79% GERDAU 4.64 ▲ 0.76% LATAM ADR 47.06 ▲ 0.32% BTC 76,796 ▼ 0.21% ETH 2,112 ▼ 0.77% SOL 84.48 ▼ 0.96% XRP 1.37 ▼ 1.33% BNB 639.07 ▼ 0.62% ADA 0.25 ▼ 1.06% DOGE 0.10 ▼ 0.70% AVAX 9.12 ▼ 1.23% LINK 9.56 ▼ 0.33% DOT 1.23 ▼ 1.50% LTC 54.09 ▼ 0.41% BCH 373.03 ▼ 1.45% TRX 0.36 ▼ 0.09% XLM 0.15 ▼ 1.38% HBAR 0.09 ▼ 0.78% NEAR 1.60 ▼ 1.19% ATOM 2.06 ▼ 0.60% AAVE 88.35 ▼ 1.12% SELIC 14.50% EMBRAER 70.50 ▼ 1.05% EMBRAER ADR 56.39 ▲ 1.13% JBS 12.86 ▼ 4.60% JBS BDR 68.22 ▼ 0.41% MBRF3 16.81 ▼ 3.50% MBRFY 3.33 ▼ 1.48% INTER 5.82 ▼ 0.51% IBOV 176,976 ▼ 0.17% IPSA 10,468 ▲ 0.45% IPC MEX 68,405 ▲ 0.63% MERVAL 2,816,245 ▲ 4.00% COLCAP 2,118 ▼ 0.22% BVL PERÚ 19,767 ▲ 0.37% USD/BRL 5.01 ▲ 0.45% USD/MXN 17.34 ▲ 0.29% USD/CLP 900.43 ▲ 0.00% USD/COP 3,797 ▼ 0.02% USD/PEN 3.42 ▼ 0.01% USD/ARS 1,396 ▼ 0.04% USD/UYU 40.30 ▲ 1.72% USD/PYG 6,066 ▼ 0.00% USD/BOB 6.85 ▲ 1.45% USD/DOP 59.01 ▼ 0.28% USD/CRC 451.24 ▲ 1.99% USD/GTQ 7.62 ▼ 0.05% USD/HNL 26.60 ▲ 1.45% USD/NIO 36.62 ▲ 0.50% USD/VES 516.67 ▼ 0.13% USD/PAB 1.00 ▲ 2.00% USD/BZD 2.00 ▲ 1.43% USD/JMD 157.29 ▲ 0.33% USD/TTD 6.71 ▲ 0.58% EUR/BRL 5.82 ▼ 0.82% BRENT 111.16 ▼ 0.84% WTI 104.03 ▼ 4.26% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.25 ▼ 0.43% GOLD 4,539 ▼ 0.29% SILVER 76.47 ▼ 0.79% SOY 1,217 ▲ 0.31% CORN 479.75 ▲ 0.58% WHEAT 672.50 ▲ 1.20% COFFEE 267.95 ▼ 2.99% SUGAR 14.99 ▲ 1.77% ORANGE JUICE 156.15 ▼ 5.05% COTTON 83.04 ▼ 0.79% COCOA 3,842 ▲ 1.35% BEEF 247.13 ▼ 2.67% CATTLE 358.78 ▼ 2.69% LITHIUM 83.03 ▼ 1.25% PETR4 46.44 ▲ 2.13% VALE3 81.83 ▼ 2.00% ITUB4 39.62 ▼ 0.20% BBDC4 17.66 ▼ 0.17% ABEV3 15.81 ▲ 0.76% BBAS3 20.42 ▼ 1.35% B3SA3 16.72 ▲ 0.12% WEGE3 42.34 ▼ 1.83% PRIO3 68.82 ▲ 0.03% SUZB3 41.97 ▲ 0.65% RENT3 42.97 ▼ 0.02% AZZA3 19.34 ▲ 1.52% CSAN3 4.41 — 0.00% RAIZ4 0.43 ▼ 4.44% PCAR3 2.25 ▼ 0.44% GMAT3 4.23 ▼ 2.53% PSSA3 48.70 ▲ 1.63% CVCB3 1.81 — 0.00% POSI3 3.95 ▲ 1.80% SLCE3 17.28 ▲ 0.52% NATU3 9.75 ▼ 1.91% BRKM5 12.41 ▲ 1.64% RANI3 7.85 — 0.00% CSNA3 6.15 ▼ 4.21% CMIN3 4.28 ▼ 9.32% USIM5 9.03 ▼ 0.99% GGBR4 23.26 ▼ 0.34% ENEV3 24.99 ▼ 0.28% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 44.72 ▲ 0.45% CMIG4 11.50 ▲ 2.04% EQTL3 38.61 ▲ 0.05% LREN3 13.77 ▲ 1.62% VIVT3 35.29 ▼ 0.65% RAIL3 14.90 ▼ 0.47% KLABIN 16.30 ▼ 0.79% RAIA DROGASIL 19.12 ▼ 2.40% RDOR3 34.77 ▼ 0.20% HAPV3 12.83 ▲ 3.05% FLRY3 15.62 ▲ 0.13% SMTO3 18.39 ▲ 0.77% UGPA3 29.28 ▲ 0.51% VBBR3 33.26 ▲ 0.42% BBSE3 34.12 — 0.00% BPAC11 54.18 ▼ 0.59% CURY3 29.49 ▼ 1.21% AERI3 2.32 ▼ 4.13% VIVARA 22.80 ▼ 0.61% COMPASS 26.10 ▲ 0.77% VAMOS 3.34 ▼ 2.05% SANB11 26.85 ▼ 0.26% ASAI3 8.29 ▼ 2.47% SBSP3 29.16 ▲ 0.45% WALMEX 55.96 ▲ 2.23% GMEXICO 200.40 ▼ 0.85% FEMSA 211.08 ▲ 0.32% CEMEX 22.00 ▲ 0.82% GFNORTE 188.03 ▲ 2.06% BIMBO 58.00 ▼ 2.13% TELEVISA 9.81 ▼ 1.01% AMX 23.22 ▲ 0.35% GAP 419.50 ▲ 1.80% ASUR 297.12 ▲ 0.33% OMA 226.41 ▲ 1.76% KOF 182.76 ▲ 1.16% GRUMA 299.28 ▲ 0.39% KIMBER 37.99 ▼ 0.63% SQM-B 74,600 ▼ 2.60% COPEC 6,450 ▲ 4.96% BSANTANDER 69.17 ▲ 0.26% FALABELLA 5,650 ▲ 2.72% ENELAM 76.00 ▲ 0.33% CENCOSUD 2,106 ▲ 2.23% CMPC 1,061 ▲ 0.57% BANCO CHILE 165.00 ▲ 0.79% LATAM AIR 21.35 ▼ 0.88% YPF 70,350 ▲ 8.23% GGAL 6,285 ▲ 3.71% PAMPA 4,890 ▲ 3.60% TXAR 620.00 ▲ 0.81% ALUAR 912.00 ▼ 3.03% TGS 9,115 ▲ 4.17% CEPU 2,116 ▲ 3.27% MIRGOR 17,025 ▼ 1.16% COME 44.50 ▲ 4.66% LOMA NEGRA 3,230 ▲ 4.03% BYMA 277.75 ▲ 2.02% TELECOM ARG 3,560 ▲ 1.57% ECOPETROL 13.81 ▲ 5.50% BANCOLOMBIA 64.02 ▲ 1.36% GRUPO AVAL 4.19 ▲ 4.49% CREDICORP 303.86 ▼ 3.94% SOUTHERN COPPER 171.90 ▼ 2.76% BUENAVENTURA 34.01 ▼ 0.82% MERCADOLIBRE 1,586 ▲ 2.53% NUBANK 12.29 ▲ 0.82% XP 17.34 ▼ 0.74% PAGSEGURO 9.18 ▲ 3.61% STONE 10.21 ▲ 6.24% GLOBANT 39.85 ▲ 2.42% TECNOGLASS 39.46 ▲ 2.20% GAP AIRPORT 243.41 ▲ 2.08% ASUR 297.12 ▲ 0.33% OMA AIRPORT 104.62 ▲ 1.73% AMX ADR 26.88 ▲ 1.09% FEMSA ADR 122.25 ▲ 0.72% CEMEX ADR 12.70 ▲ 1.11% PETROBRAS ADR 20.70 ▲ 3.86% VALE ADR 16.31 ▼ 0.06% ITAU ADR 7.89 ▲ 0.64% SANTANDER BR 5.40 ▲ 1.31% AMBEV ADR 3.15 ▲ 2.44% CSN 1.25 ▼ 0.79% GERDAU 4.64 ▲ 0.76% LATAM ADR 47.06 ▲ 0.32% BTC 76,796 ▼ 0.21% ETH 2,112 ▼ 0.77% SOL 84.48 ▼ 0.96% XRP 1.37 ▼ 1.33% BNB 639.07 ▼ 0.62% ADA 0.25 ▼ 1.06% DOGE 0.10 ▼ 0.70% AVAX 9.12 ▼ 1.23% LINK 9.56 ▼ 0.33% DOT 1.23 ▼ 1.50% LTC 54.09 ▼ 0.41% BCH 373.03 ▼ 1.45% TRX 0.36 ▼ 0.09% XLM 0.15 ▼ 1.38% HBAR 0.09 ▼ 0.78% NEAR 1.60 ▼ 1.19% ATOM 2.06 ▼ 0.60% AAVE 88.35 ▼ 1.12% SELIC 14.50% EMBRAER 70.50 ▼ 1.05% EMBRAER ADR 56.39 ▲ 1.13% JBS 12.86 ▼ 4.60% JBS BDR 68.22 ▼ 0.41% MBRF3 16.81 ▼ 3.50% MBRFY 3.33 ▼ 1.48% INTER 5.82 ▼ 0.51%
since 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Latin America Argentina

Argentina Stock Market Surges 4% in Biggest Latin America Gain After Friday Selloff

By · May 19, 2026 · 4 min read

Live ticker intelligence

Argentina Live Market Board

Live market data
May 19, 08:31

MERVAL
2,816,245
+4.00%

USD/ARS
1,396
-0.04%

YPF
70,350
+8.23%

GGAL
6,285
+3.71%

Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL 2,816,245 +4.00% +18.85% 2,707,869
USD/ARS 1,396 -0.04% +22.48% 1,396 1,396 1,396
YPF 70,350 +8.23% +63.72% 65,000 70,950 65,400 1,052,245
GGAL 6,285 +3.71% -15.07% 6,060 6,305 6,000 2,841,196
PAMPA 4,890 +3.60% +23.48% 4,720 4,920 4,633 1,431,089
TXAR 620.00 +0.81% -3.42% 615.00 635.00 607.00 422,973
ALUAR 912.00 -3.03% +25.07% 940.50 942.50 908.00 609,611
TGS 9,115 +4.17% +22.97% 8,750 9,120 8,690 105,945
CEPU 2,116 +3.27% +34.43% 2,049 2,128 2,020 519,525
MIRGOR 17,025 -1.16% -30.72% 17,225 17,225 16,825 1,164
COME 44.50 +4.66% -42.19% 42.52 44.74 42.00 12,103,719
LOMA NEGRA 3,230 +4.03% +9.73% 3,105 3,248 3,060 166,355
BYMA 277.75 +2.02% +35.54% 272.25 277.75 271.00 2,831,964
TELECOM ARG 3,560 +1.57% +33.46% 3,505 3,633 3,490 77,268
GLOBANT 39.85 +2.42% -62.21% 38.91 40.49 37.19 2,399,225
MERCADOLIBRE 1,586 +2.53% -38.49% 1,547 1,586 1,529 669,915

Largest live moves in this report universe

YPF
70,350
+8.23%
COME
44.50
+4.66%
TGS
9,115
+4.17%
LOMA NEGRA
3,230
+4.03%
MERVAL
2,816,245
+4.00%
GGAL
6,285
+3.71%
PAMPA
4,890
+3.60%
CEPU
2,116
+3.27%

Live cross-market prices, session ranges and volume update through the day, giving each report a richer read on the instruments that matter most for the session.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026 · Covering Monday May 18 session
Summary

Merval Argentina today reflects Monday’s 4.00% surge to 2,816,245.26, the biggest LatAm gain. The cloud floor at 2,700,961 held, the 200-DMA and 50-DMA were reclaimed in one candle. This is the third capitulation reversal of May after May 6 +4.42% and May 11 +2.31%.

The Big Three

1.
Merval closed Monday at 2,816,245.26 (+4.00%, +108,376 pts) — biggest LatAm gain (Mexico +0.63%, Brazil −0.17%, Colombia −0.98%). Open 2,709,579, low 2,703,512 (2,551 above the cloud bottom at 2,700,961), close near the high. Bullish marubozu. The third May capitulation reversal after May 6 (+4.42%) and May 11 (+2.31%).
2.
Friday’s RSI fast 38.88 was the deepest oversold since the April lows. Both prior May tests at the 2,750K floor produced sharp reversals. Friday’s break pulled the index to the cloud bottom and 200-DMA, where mechanical buyers re-entered. RSI recovered to 49.40.
3.
Monday reclaimed the 200-DMA (2,791,183), 50-DMA (2,795,565) and cloud top in one candle. MACD histogram improved from −14,627 to −8,001, narrowing materially. Structural pillars held: BCRA reserve build, US$20B Treasury swap, fiscal surplus. The Milei reform premium is tested, not broken.
Merval Close
2,816,245
+4.00%
Session Low
2,703,513
Cloud floor held
200-DMA Reclaim
2,791,184
Cleared
RSI Fast
49.40
Recovering hard

02 Session Data

Metric Value Change Context
Merval close 2,816,245.26 +4.00% Biggest LatAm gain
Intraday range 2,703,513 – 2,818,350 114,837 pts Bullish marubozu
Points gained +108,377 Recovered Friday Erased 275% of Friday’s −39,441
RSI fast / slow 49.40 / 44.31 Recovering hard From Fri 38.88 oversold
MACD histogram −8,001 Narrowing From Fri −14,627
200-DMA reclaim 2,791,184 +25,061 Structural uptrend restored
Cloud floor 2,700,961 Held Session low 2,551 above
Source: BYMA, BCRA, TradingView. Snapshot: May 19, 2026 06:21 UTC.

03 Why Argentina Reversed

External Trigger: Warsh shock has no Monday follow-through

Friday’s Warsh handover and US April CPI 3.8% drove the 10Y to 4.55% and broke the Merval through the 2,749,913 floor. Monday saw no follow-through: global yields stalled, dollar bid eased. Argentina took the biggest reversal because the drop was deepest — 19.8x forward P/E is the most leveraged in LatAm both ways.

Local Anchor: Structural pillars held the capitulation

The session low at 2,703,513 sat 2,551 above the cloud bottom — mechanical buyers had a clear line. Structural pillars held: BCRA reserves building toward the $10B target, US$20B Treasury swap backstop, fiscal surplus, soybean inflows through May. Country risk near 500bps remains the threshold for private-market access. Milei’s October midterm mandate is not in question.

§04 · Market Commentary

Monday delivered the third capitulation reversal of May: May 6 (+4.42%), May 11 (+2.31%), May 18 (+4.00%). Each test pierced the prior floor by progressively more, each reversal sharper. Textbook absorption. The cloud bottom at 2,700,961 was the line; Friday’s break was the buying opportunity, not the breakdown.

The session reclaimed the 200-DMA, 50-DMA and cloud top in one candle, closing at the 20-DMA cluster. Resistance overhead: Kijun (2,872,612), upper Bollinger (2,948,806). The 19.8x forward P/E is no longer the highest-multiple risk in LatAm; it is the relief trade. RSI 49.40 leaves room.

05 Technical Snapshot

Argentina Merval S&P BYMA daily chart May 18 2026 close 2816245 +4% bullish marubozu third capitulation reversal cloud floor 2700961 held 200-DMA 2791184 reclaimed RSI 49 Milei BCRA

S&P Merval daily, BYMA. TradingView · May 19, 2026 06:21 UTC

Merval closed Monday at 2,816,245 above the 200-DMA (2,791,184), 50-DMA (2,795,565) and cloud top (2,834,088 — close 17,843 below) reclaimed intraday. The 20-DMA cluster at 2,824,884 and Tenkan at 2,816,893 sit at the close. Session low 2,703,513 held the cloud bottom 2,700,961 by 2,551 points — a textbook mechanical floor. MACD histogram improved sharply from −14,627 Friday to −8,001. RSI fast 49.40, slow 44.31 — recovering from Friday’s 38.88 oversold.

Resistance: 2,824,884 (20-DMA) → 2,834,088 (cloud top) → 2,872,612 (Kijun)
Support: 2,795,565 (50-DMA) → 2,791,184 (200-DMA) → 2,700,961 (cloud floor)
Invalidation: A daily close below 2,700,961 breaks the cloud and re-opens the lower Bollinger at 2,617,409.

06 Forward Look

This week · Confirmation gate
The Kijun at 2,872,612 is the confirmation. A close above unlocks the upper Bollinger at 2,948,806 and the path to 3M. A fade below 2,795,565 (50-DMA) classifies Monday as dead-cat.
End May · Soybean window
Peak harvest dollar inflows tail through May. BCRA reserve buying continues at ~$68M/day; June flows fade.
June · Country risk watch
A sustained move below 500bps unlocks private-market refinancing of the US$19B maturity wall. Above 500 keeps Argentina dependent on the swap line.
June · May CPI print
First sub-3% monthly print would revalidate disinflation thesis and unlock the Kijun-to-3M path. Tenth consecutive above-3% pulls relief off.

07 Questions & Answers

Why did the Merval surge 4% Monday?
Capitulation reversal. Friday’s break of the 2,749,913 floor on the Warsh Fed shock pulled the Merval to the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 2,700,961, where mechanical buyers re-entered. Monday’s session low at 2,703,513 sat 2,551 above the floor — a textbook test. The reversal reclaimed the 200-DMA, 50-DMA and cloud top in one candle. This is the third May capitulation reversal: May 6 +4.42%, May 11 +2.31%, May 18 +4.00%.
Is the Milei reform premium safe?
Held at structural support. The cloud bottom and 200-DMA cluster defined the post-October midterm uptrend. Friday pierced both intraday; Monday reclaimed both at the close. Fiscal surplus intact, BCRA reserve build at ~$68M/day, US$20B US Treasury swap backstop, soybean window still flowing. The premium was tested at its line, not broken.
What confirms or fades Monday’s reversal?
The Kijun at 2,872,612 is the confirmation gate. A close above unlocks the upper Bollinger at 2,948,806 and reopens the 3M path. A fade back below the 50-DMA at 2,795,565 classifies Monday as a dead-cat bounce. RSI 49.40 leaves room either way; the next catalyst is the soybean window tail and the June country-risk reading.

Verdict

Monday’s +4.00% was the biggest single-session gain across LatAm and the third May capitulation reversal off the 2,700K cloud zone. Friday’s break of the 2,749,913 floor created the buying opportunity, not the breakdown. The session reclaimed the 200-DMA, 50-DMA and cloud top in one candle. Structural pillars held — BCRA reserve build, US$20B swap, fiscal surplus, soybean window. RSI 49.40, MACD narrowing materially. The Kijun at 2,872,612 is the confirmation gate; cleared, the upper Bollinger at 2,948,806 reopens.

Related: Friday’s floor break · May 11 double-test reversal · Mexico joins recovery camp.

Confirmation gate: Kijun at 2,872,612. Above = 3M path reopens; below 50-DMA at 2,795,565 = dead-cat.

Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.

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