Argentina Stock Market Surges 4% in Biggest Latin America Gain After Friday Selloff
Merval Argentina today reflects Monday’s 4.00% surge to 2,816,245.26, the biggest LatAm gain. The cloud floor at 2,700,961 held, the 200-DMA and 50-DMA were reclaimed in one candle. This is the third capitulation reversal of May after May 6 +4.42% and May 11 +2.31%.
The Big Three
Merval closed Monday at 2,816,245.26 (+4.00%, +108,376 pts) — biggest LatAm gain (Mexico +0.63%, Brazil −0.17%, Colombia −0.98%). Open 2,709,579, low 2,703,512 (2,551 above the cloud bottom at 2,700,961), close near the high. Bullish marubozu. The third May capitulation reversal after May 6 (+4.42%) and May 11 (+2.31%).
Friday’s RSI fast 38.88 was the deepest oversold since the April lows. Both prior May tests at the 2,750K floor produced sharp reversals. Friday’s break pulled the index to the cloud bottom and 200-DMA, where mechanical buyers re-entered. RSI recovered to 49.40.
Monday reclaimed the 200-DMA (2,791,183), 50-DMA (2,795,565) and cloud top in one candle. MACD histogram improved from −14,627 to −8,001, narrowing materially. Structural pillars held: BCRA reserve build, US$20B Treasury swap, fiscal surplus. The Milei reform premium is tested, not broken.
02 Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval close | 2,816,245.26 | +4.00% | Biggest LatAm gain |
| Intraday range | 2,703,513 – 2,818,350 | 114,837 pts | Bullish marubozu |
| Points gained | +108,377 | Recovered Friday | Erased 275% of Friday’s −39,441 |
| RSI fast / slow | 49.40 / 44.31 | Recovering hard | From Fri 38.88 oversold |
| MACD histogram | −8,001 | Narrowing | From Fri −14,627 |
| 200-DMA reclaim | 2,791,184 | +25,061 | Structural uptrend restored |
| Cloud floor | 2,700,961 | Held | Session low 2,551 above |
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+0.00%
173,325.65
-0.03%
66,709.60
+0.88%
10,954.04
+0.52%
3,281,979
+0.00%
2,301.34
+0.13%
56,620.35
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,281,979 | +0.00% | +60.69% | 3,223,652 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,478 | -0.27% | +15.97% | 1,482 | 1,478 | 1,478 | — |
| YPF | 80,625 | +1.80% | +104.63% | 79,200 | 80,975 | 79,250 | 250,509 |
| GGAL | 7,965 | +1.53% | +31.87% | 7,845 | 8,085 | 7,870 | 1,318,202 |
| PAMPA | 5,475 | +3.89% | +52.72% | 5,270 | 5,525 | 5,280 | 1,625,805 |
| TXAR | 679.00 | +1.27% | +7.61% | 670.50 | 680.00 | 662.00 | 1,306,506 |
| ALUAR | 973.00 | +1.41% | +37.43% | 959.50 | 974.00 | 960.00 | 262,563 |
| TGS | 9,710 | +2.21% | +47.12% | 9,500 | 9,895 | 9,415 | 223,685 |
| CEPU | 2,340 | +2.23% | +60.27% | 2,289 | 2,360 | 2,256 | 639,369 |
| MIRGOR | 16,775 | -2.04% | -21.34% | 17,125 | 17,075 | 16,600 | 6,365 |
| COME | 42.87 | -0.19% | -13.13% | 42.95 | 43.50 | 42.75 | 12,256,398 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,605 | +0.91% | +31.57% | 3,573 | 3,650 | 3,480 | 180,198 |
| BYMA | 292.25 | -0.51% | +53.41% | 293.75 | 296.75 | 291.50 | 4,559,784 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,255 | +2.65% | +83.41% | 4,145 | 4,270 | 4,093 | 65,941 |
| GLOBANT | 32.10 | -0.59% | -63.93% | 32.29 | 32.76 | 31.29 | 1,073,497 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,823 | -0.53% | -23.57% | 1,832 | 1,840 | 1,798 | 257,651 |
03 Why Argentina Reversed
External Trigger: Warsh shock has no Monday follow-through
Friday’s Warsh handover and US April CPI 3.8% drove the 10Y to 4.55% and broke the Merval through the 2,749,913 floor. Monday saw no follow-through: global yields stalled, dollar bid eased. Argentina took the biggest reversal because the drop was deepest — 19.8x forward P/E is the most leveraged in LatAm both ways.
Local Anchor: Structural pillars held the capitulation
The session low at 2,703,513 sat 2,551 above the cloud bottom — mechanical buyers had a clear line. Structural pillars held: BCRA reserves building toward the $10B target, US$20B Treasury swap backstop, fiscal surplus, soybean inflows through May. Country risk near 500bps remains the threshold for private-market access. Milei’s October midterm mandate is not in question.
§04 · Market Commentary
Monday delivered the third capitulation reversal of May: May 6 (+4.42%), May 11 (+2.31%), May 18 (+4.00%). Each test pierced the prior floor by progressively more, each reversal sharper. Textbook absorption. The cloud bottom at 2,700,961 was the line; Friday’s break was the buying opportunity, not the breakdown.
The session reclaimed the 200-DMA, 50-DMA and cloud top in one candle, closing at the 20-DMA cluster. Resistance overhead: Kijun (2,872,612), upper Bollinger (2,948,806). The 19.8x forward P/E is no longer the highest-multiple risk in LatAm; it is the relief trade. RSI 49.40 leaves room.
05 Technical Snapshot
Merval closed Monday at 2,816,245 above the 200-DMA (2,791,184), 50-DMA (2,795,565) and cloud top (2,834,088 — close 17,843 below) reclaimed intraday. The 20-DMA cluster at 2,824,884 and Tenkan at 2,816,893 sit at the close. Session low 2,703,513 held the cloud bottom 2,700,961 by 2,551 points — a textbook mechanical floor. MACD histogram improved sharply from −14,627 Friday to −8,001. RSI fast 49.40, slow 44.31 — recovering from Friday’s 38.88 oversold.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Verdict
Monday’s +4.00% was the biggest single-session gain across LatAm and the third May capitulation reversal off the 2,700K cloud zone. Friday’s break of the 2,749,913 floor created the buying opportunity, not the breakdown. The session reclaimed the 200-DMA, 50-DMA and cloud top in one candle. Structural pillars held — BCRA reserve build, US$20B swap, fiscal surplus, soybean window. RSI 49.40, MACD narrowing materially. The Kijun at 2,872,612 is the confirmation gate; cleared, the upper Bollinger at 2,948,806 reopens.
Related: Friday’s floor break · May 11 double-test reversal · Mexico joins recovery camp.
Confirmation gate: Kijun at 2,872,612. Above = 3M path reopens; below 50-DMA at 2,795,565 = dead-cat.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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