The Big Three
The S&P Merval fell 0.28% to 2,759,256.60 on Tuesday — the second consecutive session below the 200-day SMA — as the index continued to grind lower without producing the sharp oversold bounce the February–March precedent suggested. The index opened at 2,773,088, pushed to 2,797,480, dipped to a session low of 2,744,020, and closed at 2,759,257, according to BYMA data as of close, May 5, 2026. The session low at 2,744,020 is the lowest intraday print since the February correction. The close at 2,759,257 sits below both the 200-SMA (2,754,796) and the 50-SMA (2,781,574). The three-week range (2,800K–2,878K) that defined April has been replaced by a downtrend below every major moving average.
The MACD histogram deepened to −21,884 — extending the record to the deepest negative of the entire 2026 cycle — while the RSI signal at 37.53 approaches the 35 zone where the February correction found its floor. The MACD trajectory since the range broke on May 4 (−20,109 → −21,884) confirms the sell momentum is still accelerating despite the Merval being below the 200-SMA. In the February correction, the MACD did not flatten until the index found ~2,700,000. The current session low at 2,744,020 is 44,000 points above that level — suggesting the MACD has further to run before the correction exhausts itself. The RSI signal’s approach toward 35 is the nearest the Merval has come to the exhaustion zone since that February bottom.
The April CPI on May 14 — now 9 days away — arrives with the Merval below every support level and the inflation narrative unresolved. March CPI printed 3.4% monthly with annual inflation at 32.6%, according to Rio Times economy analysis. The BCRA’s REM survey raised the full-year 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1% — up 3.1 percentage points, according to Rio Times reporting. Moody’s Analytics still expects annual inflation to close 2026 near 28%. A reading below 3% in April would be the first in eleven months and could trigger the oversold bounce the technicals are staging. A reading at or above 3% would confirm the re-acceleration and target the February correction low near 2,700,000.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close | 2,759,256.60 | −0.28% (−7,879.90) |
| Sessions below 200-SMA | 2 | first since Feb correction |
| 200-day SMA | 2,754,796 | close 4K pts above |
| 50-day SMA | 2,781,574 | close 22K below |
| MACD histogram (DEEPEST 2026) | −21,884 | from −20,109 |
| RSI signal (approaching exhaustion) | 37.53 | nearing 35 zone |
| February correction low target | ~2,700,000 | 2.1% below close |
| April CPI | May 14 | 9 days |
Source: BYMA, TradingView, INDEC, BCRA REM — as of close May 5, 2026.
02 Merval Performance
Merval Argentina today enters Wednesday’s session below the 200-day SMA for the second day as the S&P Merval fell 0.28% on Tuesday. The session’s intraday structure repeated Monday’s pattern: rally attempt in the morning (high at 2,797,480, briefly approaching the 50-SMA at 2,781,574), failure, selloff to a new correction low (2,744,020), and recovery to close on the 200-SMA. The Merval is trapped in a slow grind lower where each session probes deeper lows before recovering — the pattern of a market that has not yet found its exhaustion point.
The LatAm divergence on Tuesday was stark: Mexico surged 1.94% in its strongest session since the 70K breakout, reclaiming three Ichimoku levels. Argentina fell 0.28%. Chile data pending. The regional differentiation has reversed from April (when Chile led) to May (when Mexico is showing the most constructive recovery signals while Argentina and Colombia lag).
03 Technical Setup
From the chart: O:2,773,087.77, H:2,797,480.36, L:2,744,020.36, C:2,759,256.60 (−7,879.90, −0.28%). Tuesday’s candle is a small-body doji with a lower wick probing 2,744,020 — the grinding pattern that characterizes a market searching for its floor. MACD at 5,803 with signal at −16,081 (histogram −21,884) continues to deepen.
Key Levels Above
• Resistance 1: 2,781,574 (50-day SMA — first reclaim target)
• Resistance 2: 2,808,168 (Kijun-sen)
• Resistance 3: 2,855,487 (21-day EMA — recovery confirmation)
Key Levels Below
• Support 1: 2,744,020 (Tuesday’s session low)
• Support 2: ~2,700,000 (February correction low zone)
• Support 3: 2,584,065 (lower Bollinger Band)
04 What to Watch
• May 14 (9 days): April INDEC CPI — below 3% monthly = first in 11 months, reversal catalyst; above 3% = eleventh consecutive month, targets 2,700K.
• Daily: RSI signal approaching 35 exhaustion — the February correction bottomed at this level. A close below 2,744K (Tuesday’s low) would be a new 2026 correction low.
• Ongoing: BCRA reserve accumulation (~$3.3B YTD vs $10B target). Peak soybean harvest. $2B World Bank-backed loan for July maturities.
• Ongoing: Country risk near 500–546 bps — the market-access threshold.
05 Verdict
Tuesday was the second day of the post-range grind. The Merval at 2,759,257 below the 200-SMA, with the MACD at −21,884 (deepest of 2026) and the RSI signal at 37.53 (approaching 35 exhaustion), is heading toward the February correction low at ~2,700,000 unless the April CPI provides a reversal catalyst. The market’s morning rally attempts (to 2,797K on Tuesday, to 2,835K on Monday) are being sold — the pattern of a downtrend that has not exhausted itself.
Bias: Bearish — below 200-SMA, MACD at record deep, 2,700K targeted. The Merval is in confirmed downtrend below every moving average. The RSI at 37.53 is nearing the 35 zone where the February correction found its floor — meaning the exhaustion bounce could arrive within two to four sessions. But the February precedent required reaching ~2,700K before the MACD flattened. The April CPI (May 14, 9 days) is the data event that determines whether the floor is at 2,760K or at 2,700K. Below 3% = the floor. Above 3% = 2,700K.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Merval falling below the 200-day SMA?
The Merval closed below the 200-day SMA for the second consecutive session on May 5, 2026, at 2,759,257 — the first sustained break below this level since the February correction. The decline reflects the 19.8x forward P/E premium being repriced after ten consecutive months of inflation above 3%, the Adorni corruption probe, and Milei’s 36% approval rating.
When is Argentina’s April CPI released?
INDEC publishes the April 2026 CPI on May 14 — nine days away. March CPI was 3.4% monthly with annual inflation at 32.6%, according to INDEC data. A reading below 3% would be the first in eleven months and would likely trigger a reversal. The BCRA’s REM survey forecasts full-year 2026 inflation at 29.1%, while Moody’s Analytics projects approximately 28%.
What is the next support level for the Merval?
Tuesday’s session low at 2,744,020 is the immediate support. Below that, the February correction low zone near 2,700,000 is the structural floor — the level where the prior correction’s MACD flattened and the recovery began. The lower Bollinger Band at 2,584,065 represents deep capitulation support. The 200-day SMA at 2,754,796 is now resistance.
Is the Merval approaching oversold exhaustion?
The RSI signal at 37.53 is approaching the 35 zone where the February correction found its bottom. The MACD at −21,884 is the deepest of 2026 and still accelerating. In the February–March correction, the combination of RSI at 35 and the MACD flattening at the 200-day SMA produced the reversal that led to a recovery toward 2,955,991. The current setup is nearing but has not yet reached that exhaustion threshold.
Related coverage:
Range break: Merval Crashes 2.32% Below 200-SMA
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Growth, Reforms and Investor Guide
Inflation forecast: Argentina Inflation Forecast Jumps to 29% as Oil Shock Hits
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.
Updated: 2026-05-06T07:30:00Z by Rio Times LatAm Markets Desk