Argentina’s Merval Reverses From Below 2.75M — CPI Binary in 48 Hours
The Big Three
The S&P Merval surged 2.31% to 2,833,120.06 on Monday — the second largest single-session gain since the +4.42% capitulation reversal on May 6 — after the session low at 2,754,976 briefly pierced the capitulation floor at 2,749,913. The index opened at 2,769,127 (Friday’s close), dipped immediately to 2,754,976 — 5,063 points below the prior capitulation low — then reversed 78,144 points to close at 2,833,120 on the Kijun-sen and cloud bottom, according to BYMA data as of close, May 11, 2026. The double capitulation test at 2,750K — first on May 6, now on May 11 with a brief pierce — strengthens the case that this zone is the correction’s exhaustion floor. The close at 2,833K reclaims the 50-day SMA (2,818,246) and returns to the Kijun (2,833,120).
The MACD histogram narrowed from −17,418 to −16,258 — resuming the improvement that Friday’s −2.30% selloff had interrupted — while the RSI signal recovered from 41.98 to 46.35. The four-session pattern is now clear: May 6 (+4.42% reversal from 2,750K) → May 7 (−1.63% pullback to Kijun) → May 8 (−2.30% erased the reversal, retested 2,757K) → May 11 (+2.31% reversal from below 2,750K). The market is oscillating between the Kijun above (~2,833K) and the capitulation low below (~2,750K), with each downside probe producing a sharper snap-back. This is the hallmark of a market that has found its floor but lacks the catalyst to break higher. That catalyst arrives in 2 days.
INDEC publishes the April CPI on Wednesday May 14 — now 2 days away — with the Merval arriving at the data from the Kijun (2,833K) rather than from below the 200-SMA (2,769K, where it sat on Friday). The inflation trajectory: January +2.2%, February +2.9%, March +3.4% monthly (annual 32.6%). A reading below 3% would be the first sub-3% monthly print in 11 months and would confirm the March spike as seasonal. Moody’s Analytics still expects annual inflation to close 2026 near 28%. The BCRA’s REM survey projects full-year at 29.1%. Below 3% = the double-tested 2,750K floor becomes the launchpad, targeting the cloud top at 2,895K and 3,000,000. Above 3% = the 11th consecutive month, retests the capitulation zone for a third time. The PIIE warns that Argentina’s monetary framework “contains new vulnerabilities.” Two days.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close / Kijun | 2,833,120.06 | +2.31% (+63,993.42) |
| Session Low (below capitulation) | 2,754,976.38 | 5K below May 6 floor |
| Intraday reversal (low to close) | +78,144 pts | +2.83% from the low |
| Capitulation zone (DOUBLE TESTED) | 2,749,913 / 2,754,976 | held both times |
| MACD histogram (narrowing) | −16,258 | from −17,418 |
| RSI signal (recovering) | 46.35 | from 41.98 |
| Cloud top (next target) | 2,895,293 | 62K above close |
| April CPI | May 14 | 2 DAYS |
Source: BYMA, TradingView, INDEC, Moody’s Analytics — as of close May 11, 2026.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+0.00%
173,371.35
-0.20%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,896.87
+0.10%
3,223,652
+0.00%
2,298.34
+0.00%
55,645.90
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,223,652 | +0.00% | +57.83% | 3,199,935 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,481 | -0.03% | +16.18% | 1,482 | 1,481 | 1,481 | — |
| YPF | 79,200 | +1.67% | +101.02% | 77,900 | 79,300 | 76,700 | 247,703 |
| GGAL | 7,845 | -0.19% | +29.88% | 7,860 | 7,955 | 7,720 | 1,413,066 |
| PAMPA | 5,270 | +1.93% | +47.00% | 5,170 | 5,280 | 5,115 | 642,357 |
| TXAR | 675.00 | +1.66% | +6.26% | 664.00 | 685.00 | 655.00 | 1,540,289 |
| ALUAR | 959.50 | +1.05% | +35.52% | 949.50 | 965.00 | 945.50 | 228,813 |
| TGS | 9,500 | +1.39% | +43.94% | 9,370 | 9,540 | 9,240 | 93,107 |
| CEPU | 2,289 | +1.10% | +56.78% | 2,264 | 2,299 | 2,227 | 249,923 |
| MIRGOR | 17,125 | +1.48% | -19.70% | 16,875 | 17,400 | 16,575 | 3,406 |
| COME | 42.95 | -2.03% | -12.96% | 43.84 | 44.10 | 42.41 | 13,063,026 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,558 | +0.99% | +30.38% | 3,523 | 3,600 | 3,480 | 230,696 |
| BYMA | 294.50 | -1.09% | +54.20% | 297.75 | 302.75 | 291.00 | 2,430,937 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,145 | -0.12% | +78.66% | 4,150 | 4,173 | 4,050 | 80,837 |
| GLOBANT | 32.29 | +0.19% | -62.34% | 32.23 | 32.94 | 31.25 | 1,027,263 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,832 | +1.02% | -22.98% | 1,814 | 1,863 | 1,805 | 293,812 |
02 Merval Performance — The Double-Tested Floor
Merval Argentina today enters Tuesday’s session on the Kijun after a +2.31% V-reversal that confirmed the capitulation zone at 2,750K as a double-tested floor. The intraday structure repeated the May 6 pattern: probe below the key low triggers institutional buying that produces a sharp recovery into the close. Monday’s session low at 2,754,976 briefly pierced the May 6 capitulation low at 2,749,913 by 5,063 points — and the snap-back was immediate and violent. The V-shape from 2,755K to 2,833K (+78K points) confirms that forced selling at the exhaustion level is met by accumulation buying.
The positioning entering the CPI is constructive: the Merval arrives at the data from 2,833K (Kijun) rather than from 2,769K (below the 200-SMA, where it sat Friday). The double capitulation test has established a firm floor. The LatAm context: Mexico is above 70K with MACD expanding bullish. Chile is grinding at the 50-SMA/cloud. Colombia is at new 2026 lows. Argentina is between its floor (2,750K) and the cloud top (2,895K), waiting for the CPI to determine direction.
03 Technical Setup
Key Levels Above
• Resistance 1: 2,856,770 (21-day EMA)
• Resistance 2: 2,895,293 (cloud top — close above exits the cloud, confirms recovery)
• Resistance 3: 2,992,384 / 3,000,000 (upper BB / psychological)
Key Levels Below
• Support 1: 2,808,769 (200-day SMA)
• Support 2: 2,781,574 (50-day SMA area)
• Support 3: 2,749,913 / 2,754,976 (double-tested capitulation zone — THE floor)
04 What to Watch
• Tuesday–Wednesday: Pre-CPI positioning. A hold above 2,808K (200-SMA) maintains the constructive setup. The Kijun at 2,833K is the equilibrium.
• May 14 (2 DAYS): April INDEC CPI — below 3% = first in 11 months, launchpad from 2,750K floor to 2,895K and 3,000K; above 3% = 11th consecutive month, third capitulation retest.
• Ongoing: BCRA reserve accumulation (~$3.3B YTD vs $10B target). Peak soybean harvest.
• Inflation trajectory: Jan +2.2% → Feb +2.9% → Mar +3.4%. Annual: 32.6%. REM: 29.1% full-year. Moody’s: ~28%.
05 Verdict
Monday confirmed the floor. The session low at 2,754,976 — briefly below the May 6 capitulation low — followed by a +2.31% reversal to the Kijun at 2,833K establishes the 2,750K zone as a double-tested exhaustion floor. The MACD narrowed (−17,418→−16,258). The RSI recovered (41.98→46.35). The Merval retained 92% of Monday’s intraday reversal. The positioning entering the CPI is the best since the correction began: on the Kijun, above the 200-SMA, with a double-tested floor 83K points below.
Bias: Cautiously bullish — double-tested floor, Kijun consolidation, CPI in 2 days decides. The Merval at 2,833K on the Kijun with the capitulation zone at 2,750K confirmed as floor and the CPI 2 days away is in the most favorable pre-catalyst position of the correction. Below 3% = launchpad to 2,895K and 3,000,000. Above 3% = third retest of 2,750K. The entire year’s thesis in one number. Two days.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Merval surge 2.31% on May 11?
The Merval produced a second capitulation-and-reversal: the session low at 2,754,976 briefly pierced the May 6 capitulation floor at 2,749,913 before reversing 78,144 points to close at 2,833,120 on the Kijun-sen. The pattern repeats the May 6 structure where institutional buying is triggered at the exhaustion level near 2,750,000, according to BYMA data as of May 11, 2026.
When is Argentina’s April CPI released?
INDEC publishes the April 2026 CPI on Wednesday May 14, 2 days away. March CPI was +3.4% monthly (annual 32.6%). A reading below 3% would be the first in 11 months. The BCRA’s REM survey projects full-year 2026 inflation at 29.1%. Moody’s Analytics expects approximately 28%.
What is the Merval’s capitulation floor?
The 2,749,913–2,754,976 zone has been tested twice — on May 6 (session low 2,749,913) and May 11 (session low 2,754,976, briefly below the prior low). Both tests produced sharp intraday reversals. This double-tested floor is the strongest technical support the Merval has established during the correction.
What happens if April CPI is below 3%?
A sub-3% monthly print would confirm the March 3.4% spike as seasonal and revalidate the disinflation thesis. The Merval would likely rally from its double-tested 2,750,000 floor toward the cloud top at 2,895,293 and potentially 3,000,000. The 19.8x forward P/E would be supported by the improving inflation trajectory.
Related coverage:
Prior reversal: Merval Surges 4.42% in Reversal From Lows
PIIE framework: Argentina’s Fragile Monetary Framework Risks Renewed Volatility
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Growth, Reforms and Investor Guide
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.
Updated: 2026-05-12T08:00:00Z by Rio Times LatAm Markets Desk
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