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Africa Intelligence Brief for Thursday, February 24, 2026
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February 24, 2026
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11 min read
What Matters Today
Read about Africa Intelligence Brief for Thursday, February 24, 2026 on The Rio Times.
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\nWhat matters today
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\nWhat matters today
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17 years of Latin America reporting, on demand.
1 SA Budget 2026 delivered yesterday — Godongwana holds the line: no VAT hike, no PIT/CIT rate changes, debt stabilised at ~78% GDP, third consecutive primary surplus, commodity windfall (gold+PGMs) lifts revenues ~R19B above target; bond issuance cut expected; markets respond positively
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2 COSATU tests GNU on day after Budget — 3-month rolling action begins — National Day of Action TODAY at GEMS HQ Pretoria; DENOSA, NEHAWU, SADTU mobilise against 9.8% medical aid hike (CMS recommended 3.3%); COSATU signals this is “Phase One” with intensified workplace mobilisation and possible national march to follow; Section 77 LRA protection confirmed; GEMS principal officer earns double the President’s salary
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3 DRC ceasefire collapses within 72 hours; Angolan mediation in crisis — FARDC and M23 trade violation accusations; fighting resumes around Minembwe in South Kivu highlands; Burundian troops involved; Qatari-mediated talks to resume but seventh ceasefire failure deepens structural pessimism; 7M+ displaced; US pressures AVZ Minerals to sell Manono lithium to American firm
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4 Mugabe son remanded on attempted murder + 2 additional charges — Bellarmine Chatunga Mugabe (29) and bodyguard charged with attempted murder, defeating ends of justice, and unlawful firearm possession after gardener shot in Hyde Park; remanded to Mar 3 bail hearing; Grace Mugabe “distressed”; firearm still missing
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5 Somaliland plays mineral-and-base card for US recognition; Somalia cancels UAE defence deals — Hargeisa offers Washington exclusive lithium/coltan access + military installations at Gulf of Aden; already exploring Israeli military presence; Mogadishu and AU reject; Somalia cancelled all UAE port and security agreements Jan 12 over sovereignty concerns; Horn geopolitics reshuffling around Red Sea access
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01
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 24
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 24
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| INDEX / PAIR | LEVEL | DAY CHG | SIGNAL |
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| JSE All Share | ~89,200 | +0.8% | ▲ Budget rally |
| Nigeria NGX ASI | ~105,400 | +1.2% | ▲ Momentum |
| USD/ZAR | ~18.10 | +0.3% | ▼ Rand steady |
| USD/NGN | ~1,490 | Flat | ▶ Stable |
| EUR/ZAR | ~19.05 | +0.2% | ▼ Tracking EUR |
| GBP/ZAR | ~22.80 | +0.1% | ▶ Range-bound |
| Gold | ~$5,155/oz | +0.1% | ▲ Haven bid |
| Brent Crude | ~$73.50/bbl | -0.4% | ▼ Iran talks drag |
| Copper | ~$9,420/t | +0.3% | ▲ China stimulus |
| Cobalt | ~$24,200/t | Flat | ▶ Oversupply |
| Cocoa | ~$3,350/t | -1.8% | ▼ Surplus builds |
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02
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
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\nCritical
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\nCritical
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\nSudan
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\nSudan
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SAF advances in Kordofan; RSF sieges broken; aid convoy attacks continue; US sanctions 3 RSF commanders; humanitarian crisis deepening with 12M+ displaced; Reuters: Ethiopia building secret RSF training camp in Benishangul-Gumuz
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\nCritical
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\nCritical
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\nEthiopia–Eritrea
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\nEthiopia–Eritrea
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ICG Briefing 210: conflict “could erupt at any time”; Bloomberg: both sides deploying troops to Tigray; Ethiopia demanded Eritrean withdrawal Feb 7; Eritrea denies; three-way friction (federal govt vs TDF vs Asmara); Assab port flashpoint; overlaps Sudan proxy dynamics
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\nTense
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\nTense
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\nDRC – M23
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\nDRC – M23
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Doha talks paused; M23 controls Goma; 7M displaced; fighting in South Kivu highlands; sixth ceasefire failure; FARDC and M23 accuse each other of truce violations
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\nWatching
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\nWatching
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\nNigeria NW
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\nNigeria NW
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300+ killed in Feb per Amnesty; Zamfara 50 dead, Kebbi ~35, Niger state 46; 100 US soldiers arrive for training; Lassa fever 318 cases/70 dead; state disintegration accelerating
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03
\nFast Take
\nFast Take
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BUDGETSA Budget 2026: No VAT hike, no PIT/CIT changes — Godongwana delivers “stability over excitement”; third primary surplus at ~1% of GDP; debt capped at 77.9%; gold/PGM windfall lifts SARS revenues ~R19B above target; JPMorgan expects bond issuance cut to R2.5B/week; markets rally on fiscal discipline
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LABOURCOSATU National Day of Action TODAY — DENOSA, NEHAWU, SADTU protest GEMS 9.8% medical aid hike; unions say increase “erodes” public servants’ take-home pay; march to GEMS HQ Pretoria; follows provincial pickets Feb 24; SEIFSA confirms protected protest under Section 77 LRA
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CONFLICTEthiopia–Eritrea at inflection point — ICG Briefing 210 warns deadly conflict “could erupt at any time”; Bloomberg reports both sides deploying troops/hardware to northern Tigray; overlaps with Sudan war proxy dynamics; Red Sea port access is flashpoint
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CONFLICTDRC ceasefire collapses; seventh truce failure — Angolan-mediated truce proposed Feb 18 violated within 72 hours; FARDC and M23 accuse each other; clashes around Minembwe with Burundian troops; Qatari talks to resume; US pressures AVZ Minerals to sell Manono lithium deposit to American firm; 7M+ displaced
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GEOPOLITICSSomaliland offers US exclusive mineral rights + military base for recognition — lithium/coltan access at Gulf of Aden; already exploring Israeli military presence; Mogadishu cancels all UAE port/security deals Jan 12 over sovereignty; Red Sea access reshuffling Horn alliances; Trump “hinted at moving on the issue”
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DEFENCESA withdrawing 700+ troops from MONUSCO by year-end — Ramaphosa announced Feb 8 realignment of defence resources; SANDF redeployed to Western Cape and Gauteng gang/illegal mining operations; Deputy Defence Minister Holomisa signals expanded military mandate; defence budget under pressure from FMD vaccination campaign (14M cattle)
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04
\nDevelopments to Watch
\nDevelopments to Watch
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SOUTH AFRICASA Budget 2026: Fiscal Consolidation Holds Under GNU
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\nFinance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the 2026 Budget on February 25 in Cape Town. As widely expected, he held all headline tax rates — no VAT increase (after last year’s debacle), no personal income tax rate changes, and corporate tax stays at 27%. The budget deficit narrows to ~4.4% of GDP. South Africa records its third consecutive primary surplus at ~1% of GDP. Gross debt stabilises at ~77.9% of GDP. A gold and PGM commodity windfall has lifted SARS revenues approximately R19 billion above target. JPMorgan projects a 50%+ probability of bond issuance being cut to R2.5B/week from R3B. Morgan Stanley called it “one of the most bullish budget documents in many a year.”After last year’s three-attempt budget fiasco, stability was the prize. Godongwana got it. No VAT hike means no political rupture in the GNU ahead of 2026 local elections. But the structural problem persists: debt-servicing costs consume more than health or policing budgets. The commodity windfall is cyclical, not structural — gold at $5,150 is buying time, not buying reform. S&P’s positive outlook (first upgrade in 18 years last November) depends on whether this discipline outlasts the election cycle.
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\nFinance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the 2026 Budget on February 25 in Cape Town. As widely expected, he held all headline tax rates — no VAT increase (after last year’s debacle), no personal income tax rate changes, and corporate tax stays at 27%. The budget deficit narrows to ~4.4% of GDP. South Africa records its third consecutive primary surplus at ~1% of GDP. Gross debt stabilises at ~77.9% of GDP. A gold and PGM commodity windfall has lifted SARS revenues approximately R19 billion above target. JPMorgan projects a 50%+ probability of bond issuance being cut to R2.5B/week from R3B. Morgan Stanley called it “one of the most bullish budget documents in many a year.”After last year’s three-attempt budget fiasco, stability was the prize. Godongwana got it. No VAT hike means no political rupture in the GNU ahead of 2026 local elections. But the structural problem persists: debt-servicing costs consume more than health or policing budgets. The commodity windfall is cyclical, not structural — gold at $5,150 is buying time, not buying reform. S&P’s positive outlook (first upgrade in 18 years last November) depends on whether this discipline outlasts the election cycle.
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LABOURCOSATU Shuts Down Streets: National Day of Action Against GEMS
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\nCOSATU-affiliated unions are staging a nationwide “National Day of Action” today, February 26, protesting the Government Employees Medical Scheme’s (GEMS) 9.8% contribution increase for 2026. DENOSA, NEHAWU, and SADTU are leading marches, with the main demonstration targeting GEMS headquarters in Pretoria. SEIFSA confirmed the action meets Section 77 LRA requirements for protected protest. DENOSA President Simon Hlungwani called the increase “unjustified” and said it would “erode” public servants’ take-home pay, making it difficult to cover school fees, transport, and food.The timing is pointed — one day after the Budget Speech that avoided tax hikes. COSATU is signalling that workers’ patience has limits even when the Treasury exercises restraint. For the GNU, labour unrest in an election year is a political pressure point the ANC cannot ignore. The 9.8% hike compares with CPI at ~3.5%, meaning real costs are rising sharply for 1.6 million GEMS members. The CMS recommended just 3.3% — GEMS overshot by 6.5 percentage points.
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\nCOSATU-affiliated unions are staging a nationwide “National Day of Action” today, February 26, protesting the Government Employees Medical Scheme’s (GEMS) 9.8% contribution increase for 2026. DENOSA, NEHAWU, and SADTU are leading marches, with the main demonstration targeting GEMS headquarters in Pretoria. SEIFSA confirmed the action meets Section 77 LRA requirements for protected protest. DENOSA President Simon Hlungwani called the increase “unjustified” and said it would “erode” public servants’ take-home pay, making it difficult to cover school fees, transport, and food.The timing is pointed — one day after the Budget Speech that avoided tax hikes. COSATU is signalling that workers’ patience has limits even when the Treasury exercises restraint. For the GNU, labour unrest in an election year is a political pressure point the ANC cannot ignore. The 9.8% hike compares with CPI at ~3.5%, meaning real costs are rising sharply for 1.6 million GEMS members. The CMS recommended just 3.3% — GEMS overshot by 6.5 percentage points.
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HORN OF AFRICAEthiopia–Eritrea Powder Keg: ICG Issues Urgent Warning
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\nThe International Crisis Group issued Briefing 210 on February 18 warning that deadly conflict between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray “could erupt at any time.” Bloomberg reports both sides are deploying troops and hardware to northern Tigray. Addis Ababa demanded Eritrean troop withdrawal on February 7; Asmara rejected this as “patently false.” A three-way friction involves the federal government, TDF (Tigray forces), and Eritrea. The flashpoint is Assab port — landlocked Ethiopia views Red Sea access as existential; Eritrea treats it as a sovereignty red line. This overlaps with Sudan’s proxy war: UAE backs RSF via Ethiopia; Egypt/Saudi back SAF via Eritrea.Any military escalation in the Horn would disrupt the Ethio-Djibouti corridor handling 90%+ of Ethiopia’s trade. Regional proxy war dynamics mean a bilateral conflict could rapidly internationalise. Egypt’s investment in Eritrea’s Assab port and Saudi’s growing ties with Asmara add layers of external interest. For investors: Horn of Africa shipping, logistics, and Ethiopian sovereign bonds are all exposed.
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\nThe International Crisis Group issued Briefing 210 on February 18 warning that deadly conflict between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray “could erupt at any time.” Bloomberg reports both sides are deploying troops and hardware to northern Tigray. Addis Ababa demanded Eritrean troop withdrawal on February 7; Asmara rejected this as “patently false.” A three-way friction involves the federal government, TDF (Tigray forces), and Eritrea. The flashpoint is Assab port — landlocked Ethiopia views Red Sea access as existential; Eritrea treats it as a sovereignty red line. This overlaps with Sudan’s proxy war: UAE backs RSF via Ethiopia; Egypt/Saudi back SAF via Eritrea.Any military escalation in the Horn would disrupt the Ethio-Djibouti corridor handling 90%+ of Ethiopia’s trade. Regional proxy war dynamics mean a bilateral conflict could rapidly internationalise. Egypt’s investment in Eritrea’s Assab port and Saudi’s growing ties with Asmara add layers of external interest. For investors: Horn of Africa shipping, logistics, and Ethiopian sovereign bonds are all exposed.
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WEST AFRICANigeria: APC Sweeps FCT Under New Electoral Act
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\nThe APC won 5 of 6 chairmanship seats in the FCT Area Council elections on February 21 — the first test of President Tinubu’s Electoral Act 2026, signed just 3 days before polling. Turnout was critically low — under 15% of 2023 levels in some constituencies. Opposition parties PDP, NNPP, and ADC were absent from ballots in several races. FCT Minister Wike imposed a curfew and declared a work-free day that drew condemnation from Senator Ireti Kingibe as “authoritarian.” Separately, the NCDC confirmed 318 Lassa fever cases and 70 deaths, with a 22% case fatality rate concentrated in five states.The election was supposed to showcase the new Electoral Act’s reforms, particularly electronic result transmission. Instead, the dominant narrative is voter apathy, opposition boycotts, and Wike’s heavy-handedness. For 2027 general election watchers, the signals are worrying. The Lassa fever outbreak — five times deadlier than the global average for viral haemorrhagic fevers — is straining an already overwhelmed health system. Northwest banditry has killed 300+ in February alone according to Amnesty International.
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\nThe APC won 5 of 6 chairmanship seats in the FCT Area Council elections on February 21 — the first test of President Tinubu’s Electoral Act 2026, signed just 3 days before polling. Turnout was critically low — under 15% of 2023 levels in some constituencies. Opposition parties PDP, NNPP, and ADC were absent from ballots in several races. FCT Minister Wike imposed a curfew and declared a work-free day that drew condemnation from Senator Ireti Kingibe as “authoritarian.” Separately, the NCDC confirmed 318 Lassa fever cases and 70 deaths, with a 22% case fatality rate concentrated in five states.The election was supposed to showcase the new Electoral Act’s reforms, particularly electronic result transmission. Instead, the dominant narrative is voter apathy, opposition boycotts, and Wike’s heavy-handedness. For 2027 general election watchers, the signals are worrying. The Lassa fever outbreak — five times deadlier than the global average for viral haemorrhagic fevers — is straining an already overwhelmed health system. Northwest banditry has killed 300+ in February alone according to Amnesty International.
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TRADETrump’s 15% Tariff Wall: AGOA’s Future in Doubt
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\nAfter the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” under IEEPA, the President immediately announced 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, replacing the previous 10% rate. This comes as AGOA — the African Growth and Opportunity Act providing duty-free access for qualifying African nations — faces questions about its fitness for purpose and imminent expiry. Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs remain in force separately. Gold surged to $5,154/oz on safe-haven demand; Bitcoin crashed 27% in one month with $5B exiting spot ETFs.African exporters face a dual squeeze: higher baseline tariffs + AGOA uncertainty. South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria are the continent’s largest AGOA beneficiaries. The tariff escalation accelerates the de-dollarisation trend and makes China’s move to scrap tariffs on most African goods from May 2026 look strategically timed. A dual trade architecture is emerging: the US raising walls while China lowers them. The gold/Bitcoin divergence tells the story: institutional capital is running to hard assets, not digital ones.
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\nAfter the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” under IEEPA, the President immediately announced 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, replacing the previous 10% rate. This comes as AGOA — the African Growth and Opportunity Act providing duty-free access for qualifying African nations — faces questions about its fitness for purpose and imminent expiry. Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs remain in force separately. Gold surged to $5,154/oz on safe-haven demand; Bitcoin crashed 27% in one month with $5B exiting spot ETFs.African exporters face a dual squeeze: higher baseline tariffs + AGOA uncertainty. South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria are the continent’s largest AGOA beneficiaries. The tariff escalation accelerates the de-dollarisation trend and makes China’s move to scrap tariffs on most African goods from May 2026 look strategically timed. A dual trade architecture is emerging: the US raising walls while China lowers them. The gold/Bitcoin divergence tells the story: institutional capital is running to hard assets, not digital ones.
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05
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
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| COUNTRY | KEY DEVELOPMENT | CREDIT SIGNAL |
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| South Africa — BB/Positive (S&P) | Budget 2026: no tax shocks; debt 77.9% GDP; third primary surplus; gold/PGM windfall | JPMorgan: 50%+ chance bond issuance cut; S&P upgrade path intact; risk: commodity dependence, election-year spending |
| Nigeria — B-/Stable (S&P) | Electoral Act 2026 passed; FCT elections low turnout; Lassa fever 318/70; banditry 300+ killed Feb | CBN mopping liquidity (₦8.53T OMO Jan); democratic narrative undermined; health system strained |
| Ethiopia — CCC+ (Fitch) | ICG: most severe warning since Tigray ceasefire; military buildup; proxy war with Sudan | Ethio-Djibouti corridor (90% of trade) at risk; IMF programme under pressure; sovereign bonds exposed |
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06
\nKey Players & Quotes
\nKey Players & Quotes
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Enoch Godongwana (SA Finance Minister) — Delivered Budget 2026 with no tax shocks, commodity windfall, and fiscal consolidation intact. Avoided last year’s VAT debacle. Markets responded positively. Next test: maintaining discipline through election year spending pressures.
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Simon Hlungwani (DENOSA President / COSATU Joint Mandating Committee) — Leading today’s National Day of Action; called GEMS 9.8% increase “unjustified” and said it “erodes” public servants’ take-home pay; mobilising DENOSA, NEHAWU, SADTU — the backbone of the public sector
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Abiy Ahmed (Ethiopian PM) — Faces ICG’s most severe warning since the Tigray ceasefire. Military buildup near Tigray alongside unresolved Eritrean standoff. Reuters RSF training-camp exposure adds diplomatic liability. Red Sea port ambition remains the root cause.
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Bola Tinubu (Nigerian President) — Electoral Act 2026 signed; first elections produced APC sweep but exposed voter apathy and opposition marginalisation. Northwest security crisis (300+ dead in Feb) and Lassa outbreak compound governance challenges ahead of 2027.
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07
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
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SA Budget Implementation: No VAT hike; VAT stays at 15%; CIT at 27%; PIT brackets likely frozen (bracket creep); carbon tax Phase 2 rate to R308/t CO2e (+30.5%); excise duties on alcohol/tobacco rising; SARS gets continued R7.5B+ for enforcement and AI-driven compliance; GFECRA gold windfall may reduce borrowing needs.
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Nigeria Electoral Act 2026: Signed February 18; first tested February 21 in FCT/Kano/Rivers elections. Section 60(3) on electronic result transmission remains contentious. Opposition parties allege the law was rushed. Low turnout and boycotts cloud the reform narrative. 2027 general election is the real test.
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Trump 15% Global Tariff: Replaces 10% rate after SCOTUS IEEPA ruling; Section 232 steel/aluminium tariffs remain; AGOA fitness under review; China simultaneously scraps tariffs on most African goods from May 2026. Dual trade architecture emerging: US raising walls, China lowering them.
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08
\nUpcoming Events
\nUpcoming Events
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| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
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| Feb 26 | COSATU National Day of Action — GEMS HQ Pretoria march | GNU labour test; election-year pressure point |
| Feb 26 | SA Budget lock-up analysis continues; Nvidia Q4 earnings | Market reaction; AI capex bellwether |
| Feb 27 | SA Parliament committees begin Budget deliberations | GNU consensus test; appropriations pathway |
| Mar 2 | IAEA Board of Governors convenes | Iran nuclear timeline; oil price implications for Africa |
| Jul 24 | Section 122 tariff cliff (150 days) | Congress must extend or tariffs expire; AGOA access at stake |
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\nStrategic Assessment
\nStrategic Assessment
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\nAssessment
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\nSouth Africa’s Budget 2026 is the sound of a government doing the bare minimum competently — and being rewarded for it. In a world where the US is raising tariff walls, Ethiopia and Eritrea are marching toward war, and Nigeria’s northwest is bleeding 300 bodies a month, “stability over excitement” counts for something. Godongwana held tax rates, capped debt, and let gold do the heavy lifting. Markets will applaud.
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\nBut COSATU’s streets today are a reminder that spreadsheet discipline does not pay school fees. The structural question has not changed: South Africa needs 3%+ growth to dent 41% unemployment, and this budget projects 1.5%. The commodity windfall is buying time. Time is not a strategy.
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\nThe Horn of Africa’s three-way collision — Addis, Asmara, and Mekelle — has the ICG issuing its most urgent warning in years. If the guns speak, the Ethio-Djibouti corridor that connects 120 million people to global trade goes dark. The proxy dynamics — UAE via Ethiopia, Egypt via Eritrea, Saudi via both — mean any bilateral conflict could rapidly internationalise.
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\nTrump’s 15% tariff wall, erected hours after the Supreme Court struck down his last one, signals that Africa’s trade architecture is being reshaped by forces entirely beyond its control. China is watching, and its May tariff elimination for African goods is not charity — it is positioning.
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\nBottom line: The budget bought South Africa another year of credibility. The question is whether credibility converts to growth before the commodity cycle turns. Everywhere else on the continent, the structural forces — conflict, trade disruption, health crises — are accelerating faster than the institutional responses designed to contain them. Position for stability in the south, volatility in the Horn, and structural uncertainty everywhere.Africa Intelligence Brief
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\nAssessment
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\nSouth Africa’s Budget 2026 is the sound of a government doing the bare minimum competently — and being rewarded for it. In a world where the US is raising tariff walls, Ethiopia and Eritrea are marching toward war, and Nigeria’s northwest is bleeding 300 bodies a month, “stability over excitement” counts for something. Godongwana held tax rates, capped debt, and let gold do the heavy lifting. Markets will applaud.
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\nBut COSATU’s streets today are a reminder that spreadsheet discipline does not pay school fees. The structural question has not changed: South Africa needs 3%+ growth to dent 41% unemployment, and this budget projects 1.5%. The commodity windfall is buying time. Time is not a strategy.
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\nThe Horn of Africa’s three-way collision — Addis, Asmara, and Mekelle — has the ICG issuing its most urgent warning in years. If the guns speak, the Ethio-Djibouti corridor that connects 120 million people to global trade goes dark. The proxy dynamics — UAE via Ethiopia, Egypt via Eritrea, Saudi via both — mean any bilateral conflict could rapidly internationalise.
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\nTrump’s 15% tariff wall, erected hours after the Supreme Court struck down his last one, signals that Africa’s trade architecture is being reshaped by forces entirely beyond its control. China is watching, and its May tariff elimination for African goods is not charity — it is positioning.
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\nBottom line: The budget bought South Africa another year of credibility. The question is whether credibility converts to growth before the commodity cycle turns. Everywhere else on the continent, the structural forces — conflict, trade disruption, health crises — are accelerating faster than the institutional responses designed to contain them. Position for stability in the south, volatility in the Horn, and structural uncertainty everywhere.Africa Intelligence Brief
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This is part of The Rio Times’ coverage of African business and economic developments for the global financial community.
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