Rodríguez Says Venezuela Exchange Rate Gap Fell to 12.3 Percent

Venezuela · ECONOMY

Caracas touts a narrower gap between official and parallel rates, record-era oil output, and an invitation for Colombian firms to produce inside Venezuela.

Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, said on 24 August 2026 in Caracas that the Venezuela exchange rate gap, the difference between the official BCV rate and the parallel market reference, narrowed from about 30 percent to 12.3 percent over the last two months. She also said oil output exceeded 1.23 million barrels per day, the highest level since February 2019.

Rodríguez Cites Narrower Gap and Higher Oil Output

Speaking in Caracas on Monday 24 August 2026, acting President Delcy Rodríguez presented two headline economic figures. She said the gap between the official exchange rate set by the Banco Central de Venezuela and the parallel market reference had fallen from around 30 percent to 12.3 percent over the last two months.

In the same remarks, she said Venezuelan oil output had exceeded 1.23 million barrels per day, the highest level since February 2019. The production figure matches reporting by The Rio Times published the same day on the country’s strongest crude output in more than seven years.

Both numbers come from government statements and should be read as official claims. The exchange-rate figure, in particular, describes a parallel market that by its nature operates outside official measurement, which makes independent verification difficult.

Still, the direction of travel matters. A narrowing Venezuela exchange rate gap would ease pressure on prices and wages in an economy where many everyday transactions are anchored to the parallel rate.

Rodríguez also said Venezuela has signed about 50 agreements for new investment across what she called more than 76 productive hydrocarbon areas, and that the oil industry did not stop working despite the earthquakes that struck the country two months ago. She said the economy has now grown for 21 consecutive quarters, while cautioning that much remains to be done to repair the damage left by sanctions.

Official Figure Sits Below Earlier Independent Estimates

Independent trackers that monitor the informal currency market showed gaps of between 30 and 45 percent earlier in 2026. The 12.3 percent cited by Rodríguez is therefore at the low end of recent experience and reflects the government’s own reading of the market.

The Venezuela exchange rate gap is watched closely because it shapes the cost of imports, the value of local wages and the prices consumers face in shops. When the gap widens, businesses that buy dollars at the parallel rate tend to pass the premium on to customers.

A sustained narrowing of the gap would suggest that official dollar supply is reaching the market more effectively, or that demand for parallel dollars is easing. The government has an interest in presenting the trend as evidence of stabilisation.

Analysts and traders will watch whether the official claim is borne out in the weeks ahead, since the gap has repeatedly reopened after periods of apparent calm.

Outside data offer a partial cross-check. Figures compiled by OPEC put Venezuela’s crude output at about 1.2 million barrels per day in July, up almost 30 percent since January, according to El Diario, lending some support to the production half of the president’s account even as the currency claim awaits market confirmation.

Consecomercio Invites Colombian Firms to Produce in Venezuela

A day after the president’s remarks, the head of Venezuela’s commerce council Consecomercio, José Gregório Rodríguez, used a radio appearance to pitch Venezuelan manufacturing to Colombian businesses. He spoke on Unión Radio’s programme ‘A Tiempo’ on 25 August 2026.

His message to Colombian firms was direct: ‘come to Venezuela, we are going to produce them here, we are going to supply the Venezuelan market and the surpluses we can export’. The invitation covers Colombian-origin goods that Venezuelan consumers currently buy as imports.

The logic is to attack the bilateral trade deficit from two directions at once. Goods made inside Venezuela would substitute for imports from Colombia, while any surplus production could be exported, including back into the Colombian market.

Rodríguez also framed the proposal as a way to use idle industrial capacity in Venezuela, where many factories run below their potential output.

He said bilateral trade currently runs at about US$1.3 billion, well short of the roughly US$7 billion that Colombian President Gustavo Petro has set as a goal, and floated joint ventures between companies of both countries to supply Caribbean markets. He also called for a review of the partial-scope trade agreement governing part of the bilateral exchange, and said foreign investors will need firmer guarantees on property rights and the repatriation of profits before committing capital.

Stabilisation Narrative Faces Market Test

Taken together, the president’s figures and the Consecomercio pitch sketch the government’s preferred economic story for the second half of 2026: oil revenue rising, the currency gap closing and idle factories being offered to foreign partners.

The Venezuela exchange rate gap will be the most testable part of that narrative. Unlike oil output, which the state company can measure directly, the parallel rate is set in informal markets that the government does not control.

If the gap stays near the level Rodríguez cited, it would mark a sharp improvement from the 30 to 45 percent spreads that independent trackers recorded earlier in the year. If it reopens, the 12.3 percent figure will look like a snapshot of a favourable moment.

For Colombian businesses, the practical question is simpler: whether Venezuela’s market and its idle factories offer a better return than exporting from home. The Consecomercio invitation suggests Caracas believes the answer is yes. Rodríguez framed the economic figures as part of a broader reopening, saying Venezuela is recovering its relationship with multilateral lenders including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.

What to Watch in the Coming Weeks

The first marker is the parallel rate itself. Market participants will test the government’s 12.3 percent claim against the prices at which dollars actually change hands in the informal market in Caracas and beyond.

The second is oil. Sustaining output above 1.23 million barrels per day would give the treasury more room to supply dollars through official channels, reinforcing the narrowing of the Venezuela exchange rate gap.

The third is the Colombian response. No major Colombian company has publicly committed to the Consecomercio proposal, and the practical details, from ownership rules to repatriation of profits, remain to be spelled out.

For now, the government’s message is one of momentum. The market’s answer will arrive in the exchange houses and on the factory floors rather than in official statements.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

• minhidrocarburos.gob.ve
• prensa-latina.cu
• eldiario.com
• unionradio.net

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