COSTA RICA · UN SECRETARY-GENERAL
Key Facts
- —What is happening On Friday, 16 October, the UN Security Council held its sixth secret straw poll for the next Secretary-General, and two permanent members discouraged Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, who still led with nine encourage votes.
- —Why it matters The General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General only on the Council’s recommendation, so a negative vote from a permanent member can block a candidate before any formal vote or Assembly decision.
- —The numbers Grynspan drew 9 encourage, 5 discourage and 1 no opinion; Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett drew 8 encourage and 6 discourage; Rafael Grossi drew 8 encourage; a candidate needs nine encourage votes and no permanent-member objection.
- —Who is who The Council has 15 members, five permanent with veto power (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States) and ten elected; the 193-member General Assembly makes the final appointment under Article 97 of the UN Charter.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Grynspan a 49% chance of becoming the next Secretary-General, Grossi 19% and Rodrigues Birkett 13% (17 October, 2:22 a.m. ET).
- —Power Index Costa Rica ranks 9th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 36.5 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What to watch No date is set for a seventh straw poll, Secretary-General António Guterres’s term ends on Thursday, 31 December, and member states keep the right to nominate more candidates.
- —What it means for you The United States holds one of the five veto seats and was one of the two tellers for the sixth poll, so Washington’s position carries weight in any Council recommendation.
The UN Secretary-General veto is not cast in the secret straw polls, but a permanent member’s red ballot signals one. Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan led the latest poll and still faces two such signals.
The UN Secretary-General veto can end a candidacy, and on Friday, 16 October, two veto holders discouraged Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan. She still topped the sixth Security Council straw poll with nine “encourage” votes.
Grynspan says no formal vote took place, so the word “veto” does not apply. This explainer sets out how the process works, who decides, and what is still open.
What Happened in the Sixth Straw Poll
The Council voted in private on Friday, using colour-coded ballots for the first time. The five permanent members voted in a different colour from the ten elected members, so their preferences could be told apart.
PassBlue, an independent news site that covers the UN, published the tallies on 16 October. Costa Rican outlets Nación and Monumental gave the same Grynspan figures.
Grynspan received 9 “encourage”, 5 “discourage” and 1 “no opinion” vote. Three permanent members encouraged her and two discouraged her, according to PassBlue.
Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana received 8 encourage and 6 discourage votes. Rafael Grossi of Argentina also received 8 encourage and 6 discourage votes, per Nación.
How the UN Secretary-General Selection Process Works
Article 97 of the UN Charter says the General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General “upon the recommendation of the Security Council”. The Assembly has 193 member states, and the Council has 15.
The two presidents of those bodies started the current race with a joint letter on 25 November 2025. It invited governments to nominate candidates and asked for vision statements and funding disclosure.
The Council began its straw polls on 30 July. Later polls followed on 21 August, 18 September, 29 September, 7 October and 16 October.
Each member gets a ballot for every candidate with three options: “encouraged”, “discouraged” or “no opinion expressed”. The Security Council Report research group says the polls test which candidates are viable.
The Council does not publish the results, and its president only announces that a poll took place. In past rounds the numbers leaked and were posted online soon afterwards.
Where the Veto Comes In
The Council has five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Article 27 of the Charter requires nine affirmative votes on substantive matters, including the concurring votes of the permanent members.
In a straw poll nobody can veto anything, because the vote is informal. A red “discouraged” ballot from a permanent member is read as a sign that a formal veto may follow.
Those positions are not fixed and can change in later polls or in the formal vote. PassBlue and the Costa Rican outlets say a recommendation needs at least nine encourage votes and no permanent-member objection.
Grynspan told reporters in Costa Rica that nobody knows for certain who voted how in a secret ballot. She said she will try to reverse the two negative votes.
A separate report on Grynspan vowing to stay in the race covers her reaction in full. Earlier coverage looked at her lead in the third straw poll.
Who Is in the Race
Seven candidates remain, and none has withdrawn since the fifth poll on 7 October. They are Grynspan, Grossi, Rodrigues Birkett, María Fernanda Espinosa and Ivonne A-Baki, Olara Otunnu of Uganda and Macky Sall.
Espinosa and A-Baki are both from Ecuador, nominated by Antigua and Barbuda and by Tonga. Sall is nominated by Burundi, and Otunnu by Uganda.
On 13 October the regional bloc CELAC wrote to ask that a Latin American or Caribbean national be chosen. PassBlue reports that Panama backs Grossi and argues that the region is due its turn.
What Happens Next
No date has been set for a seventh straw poll. Guterres’s term ends on Thursday, 31 December, and diplomats told PassBlue they expect this phase to move faster.
PassBlue reports that weaker candidates are expected to drop out, and that names such as Lana Nusseibeh and Courtenay Rattray are rumoured. It also reports that US Ambassador Mike Waltz said member states keep the right to nominate more candidates.
If the Council recommends someone, the General Assembly must still appoint that person. Security Council Report notes there is no straightforward precedent if the Council cannot agree.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, the market “Next Secretary-General of the United Nations” has traded about US$226,000. At 2:22 a.m. ET on Saturday, 17 October, it priced Grynspan at 49%, Grossi at 19% and Rodrigues Birkett at 13%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
The United States is one of the five permanent members, so Washington’s position carries a veto in the Council. It has not said publicly how it voted, and the ballots are secret.
PassBlue quotes Ambassador Waltz as saying Washington prefers to finish the selection this calendar year. The US was also one of the two tellers appointed for the sixth poll, along with China.
What Is Not Known
The ballots are secret, so it is not known which two permanent members discouraged Grynspan. Nación reports that PassBlue cited an anonymous diplomat on this, but Grynspan disputes it and no authority has confirmed it.
It is not known whether any permanent member would cast a negative vote in a formal Council vote. It is also not known whether new candidates will enter or when the next poll will be held.
Results are not released officially, so every tally here comes from news reports of leaked figures. Grossi’s split between permanent and elected members was not reported.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there really a veto in the straw polls?
No, the straw polls are informal and nothing is decided in them. A red “discouraged” ballot from a permanent member is read as a warning that a formal veto may follow.
Who chooses the UN Secretary-General?
The General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General, but only on the recommendation of the Security Council. Article 97 of the UN Charter sets out this two-step process.
How many votes does a candidate need?
A candidate needs at least nine of the 15 Council members to encourage them. No permanent member may object, according to PassBlue.
Where does Rebeca Grynspan stand?
She led the sixth poll with nine encourage votes, five discourage votes and one no opinion. Two of the five discourage votes came from permanent members.
When will the next Secretary-General take office?
The current term of António Guterres ends on 31 December 2026. No date has been set for the Council’s recommendation or the Assembly’s appointment.
Sources: PassBlue (sixth straw poll tallies); Security Council Report (sixth straw poll); Security Council Report (joint letter); UN Charter, Chapter XV (Article 97); UN Charter, Chapter V (Articles 23 and 27); La Nación; Monumental; Teletica; Diario Extra (all accessed 17 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief