U.S. Durable Goods Orders Plunge 6.3% as Trade Policy Swings Rattle Manufacturers

The U.S. Census Bureau reported a 6.3% monthly drop in durable goods orders to $296.3 billion in April 2025, erasing gains from March’s revised 7.6% surge. Transportation equipment led the decline, plummeting 17.1% ($20.3 billion) as commercial aircraft orders collapsed.

Excluding transportation, orders edged up 0.2%, while defense-excluded orders fell 7.5%, reflecting tariff-driven uncertainty and shifting industrial demand. Aircraft orders swung violently between March and April, with Boeing securing 192 orders in March before demand evaporated.

Manufacturers rushed to lock in purchases ahead of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% levy on EU imports initially set for May—only to pause in April as the administration delayed the deadline to July.

Automotive orders, which rose 2.3% in March, stalled completely as buyers hesitated. Core capital goods orders—a bellwether for business investment—fell 1.3%, the steepest drop since October 2024.

The decline underscores corporate caution amid unpredictable trade policies, despite five consecutive months of rising shipments (+0.4% in April). ISM’s April PMI highlighted contractionary conditions, with 82% of manufacturers citing tariff impacts as export orders sank.

Markets reacted cautiously: the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to 99.30 as traders priced in a 56% chance of a September Fed rate cut. Gold dipped below $3,300/oz amid dollar strength.

Analysts warn that Trump’s abrupt tariff reversals—including walking back a threatened 50% EU levy—risk prolonging industrial stagnation. Behind the volatility lies a fragile manufacturing sector navigating geopolitical crosscurrents.

While transportation swings distort headlines, underlying trends reveal a sector bracing for prolonged trade turbulence rather than investing in growth.