Silver Breaks 13-Year High as Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Rally

Silver prices surged to $37.24 per troy ounce on June 18, 2025, marking a 0.32% gain from the previous session and extending the metal’s impressive rally to its highest levels since February 2012.

The white metal has maintained its bullish momentum despite attempts to offload overbought conditions, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential.

Front-month COMEX silver futures settled at $37.09 on Tuesday, representing the fourth consecutive winning session and extending the longest streak since June 9.

This price action reflects silver’s 25.11% year-over-year gain and 15.10% increase over the past month, demonstrating remarkable strength amid complex market dynamics.

The Israel-Iran conflict has entered its sixth day, with President Trump calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. This escalation has driven significant safe-haven flows into precious metals, with silver rising 2% to $37.08 per ounce during Tuesday’s trading session.

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide underlying support despite the strengthening US dollar. Technical analysis reveals silver trading above all major moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day lines.

The daily RSI stands at 68.91, approaching but not yet reaching overbought territory, while the MACD histogram remains positive though showing signs of contracting momentum. These indicators suggest the market is gathering strength for its next directional move.

On the 4-hour chart, silver attempts to offload overbought conditions while maintaining bullish momentum. The metal trades above its EMA50, providing dynamic support for the ongoing uptrend.

Support levels cluster around $36.45, $35.65, and $34.95, while resistance stands at $37.65, $38.15, and $39.15. Fundamentals continue to favor the bulls as the silver market faces its fifth consecutive annual deficit.

Silver Faces Supply Shortfall Amid Strong Industrial Demand

The Silver Institute projects a 117.6 million ounce shortfall in 2025, with global mine production struggling to meet robust industrial demand.

Industrial applications now account for over half of global silver demand, with solar energy, electronics, and electric vehicles driving consumption to record levels. Silver ETFs have outperformed gold ETFs for three consecutive months, marking the first time in over two years.

Net inflows reached ₹853 crore in May 2025, nearly three times the ₹292 crore garnered by gold ETFs. The iShares Silver Trust reported holdings of 14,709.29 tons on June 6, an increase of 36.76 tons from the previous day.

Market analysts expect silver to continue benefiting from supply constraints and robust industrial demand. Citibank has forecasted that silver prices could hit $40 in the next 6-12 months.

With the gold-to-silver ratio sitting around 94, down from 105 in April but still above its historical average of 60, silver appears positioned for further gains if it can maintain momentum above $37.65.

The convergence of supply deficits, industrial demand growth, safe-haven flows, and technical breakouts creates a supportive environment for continued price appreciation as silver attempts to challenge the $38-40 range in the coming weeks.

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