Iron Ore Prices Breach $95 Mark as Bearish Momentum Intensifies

Iron ore prices for 62% Fe fines delivered to China slipped to $94.30 per ton on June 18, 2025, extending the decline that has characterized the market since late May.

The Singapore Exchange shows iron ore futures trading down 0.10% at $94.30, reflecting persistent downward pressure amid weak demand signals from China.

This price represents an 11.44% drop compared to the same period last year, confirming the bearish trend that analysts have anticipated. The technical landscape clearly signals continued weakness.

The price now trades well below all major moving averages, with the 200-day at $101.54 and the 50-day at $95.41 both acting as strong resistance levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33.65, approaching oversold territory but not yet indicating a reversal. Meanwhile, the MACD remains deeply negative with both the MACD and signal lines declining, highlighting sustained selling pressure.

On the four-hour chart, iron ore futures continue hugging the lower Bollinger Band while trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages that cluster between $94.94 and $97.93.

This technical formation confirms the strong downtrend with immediate support at $93.58 and the next major support zone beneath $90. Supply conditions remain robust across major iron ore producing regions.

Australian and Brazilian miners maintain high output levels, racing to sell before new capacity from Guinea’s Simandou project comes online later this year.

This landmark development will inject an additional 120 million metric tons annually into the global market, creating further downward pressure on prices.

Chinese port inventories remain elevated at 146.85 million tons, up 28% year-on-year. This signals persistent oversupply as mills focus on cost control and favor lower-grade feedstocks.

Steel production in China fell 6.9% year-on-year in May 2025, following an unexpected decline in April. Total production from January to May reached 431.63 million tons, representing a 1.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

Major financial institutions have revised their price forecasts downward. Citi has cut its three-month iron ore price target from $100 to $90 per ton, while Goldman Sachs analysts note aggressive selling by miners and spot traders.

UBS forecasts iron ore prices will average around $100 per ton in 2025, with a slight decrease to $95 per ton in 2026 and $90 per ton in 2027. The path of least resistance remains lower, with prices expected to stay within the $90-95 range in the near term.

The market awaits a clear catalyst to reverse the current trend, but the combination of weak Chinese demand, elevated inventories, and robust supply creates a challenging environment for iron ore prices.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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