Projected record trade surplus of US$86.472 billion for 2023 in Brazil

The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) anticipates a significant trade surplus of US$ 86.472 billion for 2023.

This projection arises from an expected drop in imports and exports, with exports predicted to hit US$ 323.937 billion, a 3% decrease from 2022, and imports estimated at US$ 237.465 billion, a 12.9% fall from the previous year.

This record surplus denotes a 40.5% increase from the US$ 61.526 billion in 2022.

Yet, the AEB suggests this surplus might not contribute positively to economic activity or job creation.

The total trade flow for 2023 is projected at US$ 561.402 billion, marking a 7.5% drop from 2022.

The forecasted decline in exports is attributed to fluctuating international market prices, while import reduction is attributed to adjustments in response to domestic growth and the impact of international events, such as the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Brazil’s exports remain centered around commodities, with 14 out of the top 15 export products falling under this category.

The future inclusion of more value-added products depends on tax reforms.

Current conditions, including crises in key markets like Argentina, may lead to more focus on commodities in Brazil’s export composition.

In terms of imports, manufactured products comprise 90% of Brazil’s purchases from other countries. The changing share of industry in Brazil’s GDP has implications for future import levels.

The AEB suggests that foreign trade will positively impact Brazil’s 2023 GDP despite reduced trade flows.