Oil Steadies After Five-Month Lows As Risk Premium Deflates And Trade Fears Bite
Crude edged higher Monday morning after a bruising week pushed prices to their weakest since May. Brent hovered in the mid-$63s and WTI near $60, clawing back part of Friday’s drop as traders took profits and reassessed the headlines.
The week’s plot had two sharp turns. First, a Gaza ceasefire removed a chunk of the geopolitical premium that supported prices in September.
Then fresh U.S.–China tariff threats revived growth worries and sent futures tumbling into the weekend. On supply, OPEC+ offered only a modest increase for November—about 137,000 barrels a day—too small to change the balance but large enough to damp talk of shortages.
The data behind the moves were mixed. U.S. government figures showed a roughly 3.7-million-barrel crude build last week even as refineries lifted runs and gasoline and diesel stocks fell.
The U.S. oil-rig count slipped by four, hinting at slower shale growth ahead, but production remains high. China provided the bright spot: September crude imports rose year on year to around 11.5 million barrels a day, a reminder that Asian demand is still absorbing barrels.
Russia, meanwhile, extended refinery support measures to stabilize domestic fuel supply, limiting refined-product exports.
Market plumbing told the same story. Volumes swelled during Friday’s selloff, a sign of de-risking. Oil ETFs showed only tentative dip-buying—small five-day inflows after a month of outflows—while the Brent–WTI spread tightened into the low-$2s, consistent with ample Atlantic Basin supply and a thinner Middle East premium.
Technically, the market looks in repair, not recovery. On four-hour charts, both benchmarks sit below short-term moving averages with momentum negative and RSI near oversold, allowing bounces but not yet a trend change.
Daily charts remain range-bound, implying rallies may stall unless prices reclaim broken support around recent breakdown zones.
The near-term script is two-way trade: dips cushioned by Chinese buying and cautious OPEC+ supply, rallies capped by tariff uncertainty and U.S. stock builds.
For now, oil is more likely to oscillate within familiar ranges than to break into a new uptrend—unless time-spreads firm and inventories turn convincingly lower.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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