Copper Starts The Week On Edge As Trade Politics Meet Tight Supply

Copper began Monday near $5.00 per pound on COMEX, with London’s three-month contract around $10,500 per ton.

Shanghai futures slipped roughly 2% overnight after fresh U.S.–China tariff noise unsettled risk appetite. It’s a familiar push-pull: politics are cooling momentum just as supply worries keep a floor under prices.

The market is coming off a jumpy week. London briefly pierced $11,000 a ton—its highest since mid-2024—before giving back gains.

The bigger backdrop hasn’t changed much: the industry’s official study group has softened its 2025 surplus view and now sees a deficit in 2026 as mine growth slows and refined output lags.

On the ground, guidance cuts in Chile have reinforced the sense that new tons are hard to bring on. At last week’s industry gatherings, leading investors warned that geopolitics are complicating supply chains and raising costs.

Here’s the story behind the tape. Copper has become two markets at once. In the United States, tariff risk, inventory shifts, and demand from financial buyers have kept the COMEX price premium over London volatile.

In China—the world’s biggest buyer—onshore indicators like inventories and Yangshan premiums wobble with policy headlines, pulling futures up and down.

Exchange-traded products have seen modest net inflows into October, suggesting that dips still attract money even as physical signals turn mixed.

Technicals say “trend intact, patience required.” On the four-hour chart, price holds above a rising 200-period average after a sharp downdraft and rebound; momentum is negative but improving.

The daily chart keeps the uptrend from September, though the rally has cooled. Traders are watching $5.10/lb as near-term resistance; losing roughly $4.95 would invite a deeper test toward the mid-$4.80s.

What decides the next move? Clarity on U.S.–China measures, any response from Beijing, and updates from Andean producers. In the meantime, copper looks range-bound: politics setting the ceiling, tight supply setting the floor.

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