Mining Margins Hit 27% as Gold Beats Steel

MEXICO · MINING

Mining margins reached 27% in 2025 even though the industry sold barely more metal, according to the Global Materials Perspective 2026 that McKinsey & Company published on Tuesday 13 October 2026. Gold, whose price rose 45% in a year, overtook steel and thermal coal in the industry’s profit pool for the first time.

For US readers there are two links: gold and copper prices feed straight into the profits of mining companies, and Mexico, the neighbour next door, sold US$11.58 billion of mining and metal exports to the United States in 2025. A Spanish-language summary by the EFE news agency, dated Madrid, Sunday 18 October, was carried that day by the website of Mexican commentator Joaquín López-Dóriga and by Metro Puerto Rico.

The report itself is six days old, so what this article adds is a check of the summary against the report’s own coverage, a label on every figure that only EFE gives, and the Mexican data that the summary leaves out. The summary does not mention Mexico at all.

How Mining Margins Rose to 27% Without More Output

McKinsey says industry EBITDA, meaning earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, passed US$800 billion in 2025 and that the average EBITDA margin reached 27%. EFE adds that the margin was 19% a year earlier, a figure the two trade reports on the study do not give.

Revenue grew only about 1%, volumes were largely flat, labour productivity did not change and capital productivity declined, according to International Mining (14 October) and Global Mining Review (15 October), which reproduce the report’s summary. Industry market value reached a record US$3.7 trillion, about 230% above 2015.

So the jump in mining margins came from the mix of metals sold, not from more tonnes or better productivity. EFE quotes the report in Spanish as saying that margin expansion was “almost entirely” due to a shift of volume towards higher-margin commodities, “especially gold and copper”, which is our translation.

Which Metals Drove the Gain

Gold prices rose 45% year on year, and gold overtook steel and thermal coal in the industry’s EBITDA pool for the first time, according to the two trade reports. EFE alone puts gold’s share at 28% of all industry EBITDA and says copper rose 9% in the year, figures we could not match to the report’s public summary.

EFE reports that a slowdown in Chinese construction pushed down steel and thermal coal prices, which held back industry revenue. Falling prices for those two materials are the reason EFE gives for revenue growing by only about 1% in 2025.

Between 2015 and 2025, shareholder returns multiplied 8.1 times for gold producers, 6.3 times for copper and 2.2 times for nickel, according to the report as summarised by International Mining and Global Mining Review. EFE separately says returns for the whole sector multiplied 5.6 times against 3.7 times for the S&P Global 1200 index, a comparison we attribute to EFE only.

Investment, Exploration and Data Centres

McKinsey estimates that about US$4.2 trillion of capital spending may be needed across mining and processing through 2035, to meet demand from infrastructure, energy, artificial intelligence and defence. It also sees an untapped productivity gain of US$450 billion to US$750 billion a year, and projects industry emissions to fall by only 8% by 2035.

EFE says exploration spending stands 65% below its 2012 peak, alongside stalled productivity. We did not find that figure in the report’s public summary and attribute it to EFE.

Data centres are expected to account for about 4% of global copper demand by 2030, the trade reports say. EFE gives 4.3% for copper and 6.2% for gallium, so the decimal for copper and the gallium share rest on EFE alone.

Mexico: Prices Rose While Gold Output Fell

Mexico shows a similar pattern to the global mining margins story, with one difference. The mining chamber Camimex reported on Monday 3 August 2026, in its Informe Anual 2026, that the value of Mexican mining and metallurgical output in 2025 reached MXN 379.29 billion, up 21.2% from MXN 313.06 billion in 2024; Camimex puts the 2025 total at US$19.77 billion, up 15.9% in dollar terms.

The report’s tables, which cite the national statistics office INEGI, show the physical volume index up only 0.2%, and Camimex says the rise came mainly from metal prices. In its words, output volume was practically stagnant.

Gold was worth MXN 126.57 billion (about US$6.6 billion), up 31.8%, even though gold volume fell 3.8% to 65,457 kilograms. Silver was worth MXN 92.09 billion (about US$4.8 billion), up 34.9%, on a 1.5% rise in volume to 4,137 tonnes.

Copper was worth MXN 93.34 billion (about US$4.9 billion), up 12.9%, with volume up 4.1% to 508,574 tonnes. Together gold, silver and copper made up about 82% of the total, and gold and silver alone about 58%, by our calculation from the report’s tables.

Camimex puts the 2025 average gold price at US$3,431 an ounce, 43.8% above 2024, and the average copper price at US$4.51 a pound, up 8.8%. Our dollar equivalents for the metals use 19.19 pesos per dollar, which Camimex gives as the 2025 average and which matches its own peso and dollar totals.

Mexican mining exports were US$30.64 billion in 2025, up 19.8%, and the United States took US$11.58 billion of that, up from US$9.53 billion in 2024, according to INEGI figures in the Camimex report. Investment fell 3.3% to US$4.90 billion, with spending on new projects down 49.2%.

Mexican Output in 2026 Has Not Followed Prices

INEGI’s monthly mining bulletin of Wednesday 23 September 2026 shows that July output fell 3.9% from a year earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 3.8% rise from June. In unadjusted figures, gold output fell 10.1% to 4,528 kilograms, silver fell 2.3% to 328,347 kilograms and copper rose 3.1% to 43,303 tonnes.

The bulletin also reported that June output was down 10.6% and May down 3.3% from a year earlier, both seasonally adjusted. INEGI’s next release is due on Wednesday 21 October 2026, which will add the August reading.

Mexico’s 2025 gain therefore came from prices, and the July 2026 data show gold volume falling, which is the opposite of the global flat-volume picture. These are single-month and preliminary figures, so they show direction and not a full-year result.

What It Means for You

For US investors, the report is a reminder that the surge in mining margins has been a price story, so margins can shrink as quickly as they grew if gold or copper retreat. For Mexico-focused investors, 2025 results rest on prices while gold volume is falling, which our earlier coverage of US$11 billion in blocked Mexican mining projects and the chamber’s call to restart concessions helps explain.

For readers following copper, our guide Copper in Latin America 2026: Mines, Prices and Politics covers the region’s mines and the demand outlook. Our explainer Mexico Natural Resources Explained 2026 sets out what the country mines and where.

What Is Not Known

We could not open McKinsey’s full report, so the industry figures rest on the report’s public page, dated 13 October, and on International Mining and Global Mining Review, which reproduce its summary. EFE’s figures for gold’s 28% share, the 19% starting margin, the 5.6 times shareholder return, the 65% fall in exploration spending, the 4.3% and 6.2% data-centre shares could not be matched in those summaries.

The sources do not show how much of Mexico’s 2025 gain came from each metal’s price compared with volume, and they do not say whether the gold decline in 2026 is temporary. Neither the McKinsey summaries nor the EFE text mention Mexico, so the link between the two is our comparison and not a finding of the report.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did McKinsey report about mining margins?

Its Global Materials Perspective 2026, published on Tuesday 13 October 2026, puts the average industry EBITDA margin at 27% for 2025, on revenue growth of about 1%. Industry EBITDA passed US$800 billion.

Which metals lifted mining profits?

Gold, up 45% in price, and copper did most of the lifting, and gold overtook steel and thermal coal in the industry’s profit pool for the first time. EFE says weaker steel and thermal coal prices held back revenue.

Did Mexican mining show the same pattern?

In 2025, yes: the value of output rose 21.2% in pesos to MXN 379.29 billion (US$19.77 billion, up 15.9% in dollars) while the volume index rose only 0.2%, according to Camimex and INEGI. In July 2026, gold output fell 10.1% from a year earlier, according to INEGI.

Which figures come only from the EFE summary?

The 28% gold share of EBITDA, the 19% earlier margin, the 5.6 times sector return, the 65% drop in exploration spending and the 4.3% copper and 6.2% gallium data-centre shares. We attribute them to EFE and could not match them in the report’s public summaries.

What does it mean for US readers?

It shows that mining profits depend heavily on gold and copper prices, which matters to investors in miners. Mexico also sold US$11.58 billion of mining exports to the United States in 2025.

Sources: McKinsey & Company, Global Materials Perspective 2026 (13 October 2026); International Mining, 14 October 2026; Global Mining Review, 15 October 2026; Metro Puerto Rico (EFE), 18 October 2026; López-Dóriga (EFE), 18 October 2026; Camimex, Informe Anual 2026 (INEGI tables); INEGI, Industria Minerometalúrgica bulletin, 23 September 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error