Mexico’s ‘Historic’ Revenue Jump: Enforcement Over Tax Hikes, With a Nearshoring Bet

Mexico says its public finances are having a banner year without raising headline tax rates. The finance ministry reports a real 4.6% increase in 2025 revenues, driven mainly by stronger enforcement rather than new taxes or higher ISR/IVA rates.

Through September, the government had collected 77.8% of its annual target. Tax receipts reached roughly 5.297 trillion pesos, with an additional 654.180 billion in non-tax income—together about 470.541 billion pesos more than in 2024.

Officials say nearly 200 billion pesos of the outperformance came from tighter customs controls and a crackdown on smuggling.

The story behind those numbers is a systematic cleanup of how businesses register and file. The tax authority has tightened address verification and made it harder to obtain a digital signature, steps aimed at blocking shell companies.

Proposed rule changes would speed decisions against “invoice mill” schemes with an abbreviated 24-day process, allow immediate cancellation of digital seals used to issue receipts, and bar implicated partners from opening new firms.

Authorities frame this as leveling the field for compliant taxpayers; critics will watch to ensure enforcement does not ensnare legitimate companies.

Mexico Boosts Revenue Through Compliance Not New Taxes

President Claudia Sheinbaum has cast the revenue surge as proof that transparency and compliance can raise money without hiking rates.

That political message matters abroad because it signals policy stability: Mexico wants more revenue, but through efficiency and anti-evasion, not sweeping new taxes. It also dovetails with a broader economic bet.

For 2026, the government projects total revenues of 8.7 trillion pesos and a 7.8% rise in tax income, tied to “Plan México,” which leans into nearshoring and import substitution.

Tools on the table include a capital-repatriation window, incentives for investment in machinery and innovation, and extra deductions for worker training.

Why this matters outside Mexico: if enforcement keeps lifting revenue without new taxes, Mexico can fund infrastructure and social programs while staying attractive to manufacturers shifting supply chains closer to the United States.

The trade-off to watch is at the border and in audits—tougher controls can cut fraud, but if overdone they raise costs and slow deliveries for exporters and importers alike.