MEXICO · POLITICS
Key Facts
- The country Mexico, the United States’ southern neighbour and partner in the USMCA trade pact, has been led by President Claudia Sheinbaum of the governing Morena party since 1 October 2024.
- What happened A MetricsMx telephone poll of 14 October puts her approval at 69.1%, the lowest of 16 weekly readings since 1 July. The same poll finds 78.9% in favour of making digital platforms protect children from violent content.
- Why it matters A president near 70% approval has room in trade talks with Washington, and a new decree puts child safety duties on social networks, video games and app stores serving Mexico’s 104.9 million internet users.
- The decree It was published in the official gazette on 14 October, gives platforms 30 days to report what they have done, and sets no penalties for now.
- Prediction markets Polymarket traders put the chance that Sheinbaum is out as president by 31 December at about 4% (3:36 p.m. ET, 19 October 2026).
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s approval rating stands at 69.1% in a MetricsMx telephone poll taken on 14 October and published by the news site SDP Noticias on Monday 19 October. The same survey found that 78.9% of respondents want the government to require digital platforms to protect children and teenagers from violent content and harassment.
That matters to US readers for two reasons. A president near 70% approval has political room while trade talks with Washington continue, and the new child safety rules bind the social networks, video games and app stores that serve Mexico’s 104.9 million internet users, a 2025 survey estimate cited in the decree.
The 69.1% is the lowest of 16 weekly MetricsMx readings since 1 July, when the series stood at 70.9%. It is 6.2 points below the 75.3% of 29 July, although the 1.3-point dip since 30 September is well inside the poll’s margin of error.
What the Poll Found
Of the 69.1% who approve, 57.7% approve a lot and 11.4% approve somewhat, while 19.6% disapprove, 7.9% are neutral and 3.4% do not know. A week earlier, on 7 October, the series stood at 69.4%, and on 30 September at 70.4%.
On children online, 67.7% very much agree and 11.2% somewhat agree that the government should require platforms to protect minors from violent content and harassment, while 15.7% disagree. The survey also found 67.0% saying Sheinbaum should attend the Ibero-American Summit that Spain hosts in Madrid on 4 and 5 November, against 12.2% who say she should not.
On 5 August the same pollster found 71.2% naming parents or guardians as chiefly responsible for protecting minors on social networks, against 9.2% for the platforms’ owners and 3.1% for the government. The question differs from the October one, so it is not a before-and-after test, but it shows that backing for platform duties sits alongside a belief that parents carry the main responsibility.
How Reliable Is the Poll
MetricsMx surveyed 800 adults on 14 October by automated call, with a recorded voice asking the questions and respondents answering on their phone keypads, and weighted the results by gender, age and state. The stated margin of error is plus or minus 3.46 points at 95% confidence, the textbook figure for a simple random sample of 800, and SDP Noticias published no response rate and no exact question wording.
El Financiero found 70% approval and 30% disapproval in a telephone poll of 800 adults between 10 and 20 September, and Mitofsky put her at 72% for September, the news site Político MX reported. The three firms ask different questions at different times, but all point to roughly seven in ten Mexicans approving.
The Child Safety Decree Behind the 78.9%
On 14 October, the day the poll was taken, the government published a decree on safe digital environments for children and teenagers in the Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico’s official gazette. The text, which was presented on 9 October, bans platforms from letting minors reach or be recommended content that promotes harassment, sexual abuse, hate speech, violent extremism, pornography, suicide, self-harm or eating disorders.
Platforms must use age checks that go beyond a user’s own declaration, remove offending accounts and content immediately, default new accounts to the strictest privacy settings and keep a 24-hour contact point for prosecutors. The decree contains no penalty clause but gives platforms 30 calendar days from 14 October, which ends around 13 November, to document and report what they have done.
Sheinbaum calls the rules mandatory and says a law with sanctions would follow if platforms fail to comply, and on 13 October she said the platforms “totally agreed”, Infobae México reported. The Guadalajara daily El Informador listed Meta, Microsoft, Apple, TikTok, Google, X and Huawei as willing to implement it, but no public statement from those companies was found.
Sheinbaum tied the decree to school violence on 9 October, citing four recent cases, one ending in a teacher’s death, with signs of contact through social networks, the presidency’s bulletin says. On 1 October the Coahuila state prosecutor’s office said the deputy head of a secondary school in Torreón was killed, and two former pupils, both 18, were detained.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market where users trade contracts with real money, the contract on whether Sheinbaum is out as president by 31 December stood at about 4 cents for Yes at 3:36 p.m. ET on Monday 19 October, which reads as a 4% chance, with a best bid of 3.7 cents and a best ask of 4.7 cents. About US$39,300 has traded on that contract, but these are bets, not polls, and the contract tracks whether she stays in office rather than how popular she is.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you run or invest in a US platform business with Mexican users, the decree is an early test of how hard Mexico will push. The government chose a mandatory decree without fines, so the report due around 13 November, and any law that follows, are the dates and steps to watch.
If you trade with or invest in Mexico, the approval number shows how much political room Sheinbaum has while talks with Washington go on. El Financiero’s September poll found 60% favourable opinion of the government’s handling of the USMCA negotiations, up from 56% in August, against 49% favourable on the economy and 27% on security.
If you live in Mexico or travel there with children, you may meet age checks and stricter default privacy settings on the apps your family uses. Adults may also see violent posts removed faster, since platforms must take down offending accounts and content immediately.
What Is Not Known
It is not known who commissioned and paid for the MetricsMx series, and the figures appear only in SDP Noticias reports, not on metricsmx.com, which forwards to the site of the consultancy Metrics. The 78.9% is the news site’s summary of a question about measures to protect minors, not a verdict on the decree itself, because the exact wording is not public.
It is not known whether platforms will meet the 30-day deadline, which companies beyond the seven El Informador named have agreed, or what a future law would penalise. It is also open whether Sheinbaum will go to Madrid, because no confirmation was found and the latest statements located, from March and April, said she was undecided.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Claudia Sheinbaum’s approval rating?
A MetricsMx telephone poll of 14 October puts it at 69.1%, with 19.6% disapproving. El Financiero found 70% in September and Mitofsky 72%.
Who is MetricsMx and how reliable is the poll?
MetricsMx is a polling firm whose weekly Sheinbaum approval series SDP Noticias has published since at least July. It surveys 800 adults by automated phone call with a stated margin of error of 3.46 points, and no release of the results was found on the firm’s own website.
What does Mexico’s child safety decree require?
Platforms must verify ages beyond self-declaration, remove content that promotes harassment, sexual abuse, hate or self-harm, and report their actions within 30 days of 14 October. The decree sets no penalties for now, and Sheinbaum has said a law with sanctions would follow if companies fail to comply.
Does the decree affect US companies?
In practice it does, because it covers social networks, video games and app stores, and the Guadalajara daily El Informador listed Meta, Microsoft, Apple, TikTok, Google and X among the companies willing to implement it. The decree itself names no company.
When are Mexico’s next national elections?
Mexico votes on 6 June 2027 to renew all 500 seats of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Congress. The federal electoral process began on 10 September 2026, the national electoral institute INE says.
Sources: SDP Noticias, MetricsMx poll of 14 October, 19 October 2026; SDP Noticias weekly MetricsMx releases (3 August, 10 August, 17 August, 31 August, 7 September, 14 September, 21 September, 28 September, 5 October, 12 October); Diario Oficial de la Federación, Decreto de entornos digitales seguros para niñas, niños y adolescentes, 14 October 2026; Secretaría de Educación Pública, republished presidency bulletin, 9 October 2026; Infobae México, 13 October 2026; El Informador, 14 October 2026; El Financiero, approval poll, 1 October 2026; El Financiero, Torreón school attack, 1 October 2026; Político MX, Mitofsky world leaders ranking, 5 October 2026; La Moncloa, XXX Ibero-American Summit, 8 September 2026; swissinfo (EFE), 17 March 2026; swissinfo (EFE), 30 April 2026; Instituto Nacional Electoral, Proceso Electoral Federal 2026-2027; Cámara de Diputados, record of the session of 1 October 2024; Polymarket public market data, 19 October 2026. All retrieved 19 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error