Mexico’s Goods Exports Hit Record US$81.4 Billion in July
Mexico · TRADE
Key Facts
- —Record Mexican goods exports reached US$81.42 billion in July 2026, an all-time monthly high.
- —Growth The 43.7 percent rise compares July 2026 with July 2025, not with June.
- —Balance Imports climbed 45.0 percent to US$82.27 billion, leaving a US$848 million trade deficit.
- —Mix Non-automotive manufacturing exports jumped 64.9 percent, while car exports added only 2.4 percent.
- —Market The United States took 84.51 percent of non-oil exports from January to July.
Computers, not cars, drove the July surge in Mexican goods exports, and imports climbed even faster.
Mexico’s statistics agency reported record merchandise exports of US$81.42 billion for July 2026 on August 27. Mexican goods exports were 43.7 percent higher than in July 2025, the strongest annual gain since 2021.
What the 43.7 percent actually measures
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography, known as INEGI, published bulletin 569/26 on August 27, 2026. It covers the Balanza Comercial de Mercancías de México, the country’s monthly merchandise trade balance.
The headline figure is total merchandise exports of US$81.42 billion in July 2026. That is 43.7 percent above the US$56.71 billion recorded in July 2025.
The comparison is one month against the same month a year earlier, not against June. The 43.7 percent covers all Mexican goods exports, not oil, cars or one sub-category.
Adjusted for seasonality, exports rose 9.69 percent against June 2026, a much smaller step. The cumulative January to July total came to US$471.39 billion, up 27.7 percent.
Imports grew even faster
Mexico bought US$82.27 billion of goods from abroad in July, 45.0 percent more than a year earlier. That left a monthly trade deficit of US$848 million.
Intermediate goods drove the import bill, rising 31.2 percent in the first seven months. Those are the parts and components that feed export factories rather than domestic shops.
Consumer goods imports grew 9.8 percent to US$58.19 billion between January and July. Capital goods, meaning machinery and equipment, added just 2.5 percent to US$33.27 billion.
In seasonally adjusted terms imports rose 15.16 percent in the month, faster than exports. The adjusted balance still showed a small surplus of US$465 million.
For January to July the country holds a surplus of US$9.26 billion. The same period of 2025 produced only US$1.18 billion.
Oil is the drag on the total
Non-oil shipments reached US$79.43 billion in July and grew 45.0 percent. Oil exports came to US$1.99 billion, up only 6.8 percent.
Crude export volumes fell to 510,000 barrels a day from 692,000 a year earlier. The Mexican export mix averaged US$75.12 a barrel during the month.
The petroleum account ran a deficit of US$3.66 billion, wider than June’s US$3.40 billion. Energy therefore subtracted from a month that was otherwise extraordinary.
Computers, not cars
Manufacturing exports totalled US$76.31 billion in July and rose 45.7 percent. Within that, non-automotive manufacturing reached US$59.84 billion and jumped 64.9 percent.
Automotive exports came to US$16.47 billion and grew only 2.4 percent. The car sector, long the engine of Mexican goods exports, is now the slow lane.
Agricultural exports fell 8.6 percent to US$1.32 billion in the month. Extractive industries, meaning mining and quarrying, rose 87.1 percent to US$1.81 billion.
Seasonally adjusted, non-automotive manufacturing exports gained 14.28 percent against June. That single line explains most of the record.
The data centre effect
Banco BASE published an analysis of the export boom on August 10, 2026. It found that computer equipment exports rose 177.57 percent in the first half of the year.
That one tariff line accounted for 76.75 percent of total export growth over the period. The buyers are United States data centres built for artificial intelligence.
Metal prices added more. Silver rose 151.81 percent, platinum 117.34 percent and copper 38.83 percent in the year to date.
Strip out computer equipment and metal prices, and Banco BASE puts underlying export growth at 2.56 percent. Imports of computer equipment grew 220.01 percent, mostly from Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea.
The bank describes Mexico as an assembly node rather than a technology producer. Manufacturing output itself fell 1.19 percent in the year to May, and factory employment fell 2.09 percent.
Almost everything goes north
The United States took 84.51 percent of non-oil exports between January and July. Sales to that market grew 49.8 percent in July alone.
Shipments to the rest of the world rose 21 percent over the same month. The concentration on one buyer is therefore rising, not falling.
T-MEC is the Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá, the North American trade agreement. Goods that meet its rules of origin still enter the United States duty free.
The Secretaría de Economía, Mexico’s economy ministry, said on June 3, 2026 that about 85 percent of exports qualify. Section 232 duties of up to 50 percent still apply to steel, aluminium and copper.
Vehicles and several machinery chapters also carry extra charges despite the agreement. That pattern helps explain why car exports lagged while computer shipments surged.
Why the number is this big
Part of the answer is the base. Exports grew only 4.0 percent in July 2025, a weak month to measure against.
Mario Correa, former head of the economics committee at the Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, pointed to inventory building. Speaking on July 29, 2026, he tied the rush to uncertainty over United States trade policy.
He warned that the boost could prove short-lived once buyers stop stockpiling. Front-loading pulls future orders into the present rather than creating new demand.
Gerónimo Ugarte, chief economist at Valmex Casa de Bolsa, credited the American investment cycle on the same day. He also cited supply chains moving away from Asian technology suppliers facing tariffs.
Juan Carlos Alderete of Banorte said on July 28, 2026 that artificial intelligence spending should keep manufacturing exports growing. Rodolfo Ostolaza of Banamex cautioned against crediting every gain to that single theme.
The peso and the forecasts
Trade figures are measured in United States dollars, so a stronger peso does not inflate them. Banco de México, the central bank, set its FIX reference rate at 16.9660 pesos per dollar on August 27, 2026.
Banamex expects Mexico to close 2026 with a trade deficit of US$6.5 billion. It forecasts full-year export growth of 7.4 percent and import growth of 8.5 percent.
The review of T-MEC is the main risk hanging over the current run. Stricter rules of origin would bite hardest on the assembly trade now driving growth.
Mexican goods exports have set records all year, yet factory output and employment have not followed. That gap is the awkward part of an otherwise spectacular headline.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the 43.7 percent figure refer to all Mexican goods exports?
Yes, it is INEGI’s total merchandise export figure for July 2026. It compares that month with July 2025, not with June 2026.
Which sectors drove the July record?
Non-automotive manufacturing, above all computer equipment sold to United States data centres. Extractive industries also grew sharply, while cars and farm goods lagged.
Did Mexico run a trade surplus in July 2026?
No, imports of US$82.27 billion produced a deficit of US$848 million. The January to July period still shows a surplus of US$9.26 billion.
Connected Coverage
Mexico US Tariffs: Ebrard Presses T-MEC Review in Washington
Mexico’s Public Debt Hits Record US$1.11 Trillion, 51% of GDP
Sources
- www.inegi.org.mx
- www.inegi.org.mx
- www.infobae.com
- www.abc.com.py
- blog.bancobase.com
- www.globalmedia.mx
- www.industrialnewsbc.com
- www.cronista.com
- www.jornada.com.mx
- www.infobae.com
- expansion.mx
- dof.gob.mx
- www.riotimesonline.com
- www.riotimesonline.com
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