MEXICO · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico shipped US$419.3 billion of goods to the US, January to August.
- —What happened Producer prices rose 4.05% year on year in September, INEGI said.
- —The numbers Forecast 3.3%; August 2.99%; monthly rise 1.37%.
- —The drivers Crude oil prices jumped 34.04% in the month; gasoline rose 7.54%.
- —What it means for you Mexican export prices rose 3.12%; US import price data due 16 October.
- —Still open INEGI does not separate the peso’s effect from oil’s.
Mexico’s producer prices rose at the fastest pace since June 2025, led by a 34% jump in crude oil prices.
Mexico producer prices rose 4.05% in the year to September, well above the 3.3% analysts expected. The national statistics institute INEGI published the data on Thursday, 8 October, after a 2.99% rate in August.
The jump matters for US buyers, since Mexico shipped US$419.3 billion of goods to the United States from January to August. Crude oil, gasoline and diesel did most of the lifting, as a Middle East supply shock pushed energy costs higher.
What INEGI’s Figures Show
The Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) is Mexico’s autonomous statistics agency. Its producer price index tracks what producers receive for goods and services sold at home and abroad.
The index, including oil, rose 1.37% from August, the largest monthly rise since March’s 1.72%. The annual rate of 4.05% is the fastest since June 2025, when INEGI reported 4.89%.
Prices of intermediate goods and services, the inputs firms sell to each other, rose 4.25% on the year. Prices of final goods and services rose 3.97%, against 3.06% for the whole index a year earlier.
Crude Oil and Fuel Drove the Rise
Mining sector prices, which include crude oil, rose 13.27% in the month and 23.84% on the year. The biggest single contributor was crude oil, whose producer price jumped 34.04% from August.
Crude oil alone added 0.59 percentage points to the 1.37% monthly rise, more than two-fifths of it. Gasoline rose 7.54%, diesel 11.52% and fuel oil 6.32%, INEGI’s table of key products shows.
With natural gas, those energy items added about 0.8 points, close to 60% of the monthly increase. Makers of petroleum and coal products raised prices 7.37% in the month and 17.57% on the year.
Poultry was the other big mover, up 27.99%, while avocado and potato prices fell. Banxico’s minutes say oil rebounded sharply in early September after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The same passage cites attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Oil stayed high into October, with Brent futures at US$105.18 a barrel on Thursday, Mexican business outlet Expansión reported.
Export Prices and the Peso
Prices of goods Mexico produces for export rose 2.07% in September and 3.12% on the year. In August, the annual rate for export goods was just 1.05%.
INEGI measures these prices in pesos, so currency moves matter. Banxico’s FIX reference rate rose from 17.01 pesos per dollar on Monday, 31 August, to 18.07 on Wednesday, 30 September.
That means a dollar bought about 6.2% more pesos at month-end. Most of the slide came after mid-September, so the monthly average was only about 1.2% weaker than in August.
The peso fell 1.21% on Thursday, closing at 18.2025 per dollar, El Economista reported. The newspaper tied the move to Banxico minutes that showed openness to a further rate cut.
What It Means for You
For US importers, Mexico producer prices are an early read on what suppliers may charge. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics says prices of imports from Mexico rose 2.3% in the year to August.
That was well below the 7.0% rise in overall US import prices, where fuel import prices climbed 26.8%. Prices of non-manufactured imports from Mexico rose 8.2%, against 2.0% for manufactured goods.
US goods imports from Mexico reached US$60.6 billion in August, against US$45.2 billion a year earlier, Census Bureau data show. That trade runs under the USMCA, the 2020 pact among the United States, Mexico and Canada.
One Banxico board member tied first-half export growth of 11.8% to preferential access to the US market under that pact. For travellers and remittance senders, the weaker peso means each dollar buys more.
Why the Central Bank Is Watching
Banco de México (Banxico), the autonomous central bank, targets 3% consumer inflation with a band of one point either side. It held its benchmark rate at 6.50% on Thursday, 24 September, its third hold in a row.
Minutes published on 8 October show one member warning that energy-driven production and transport costs could reach Mexican prices. Two members signalled a possible further cut, one speaking of a downward “fine adjustment.”
Consumer inflation, published the same morning, rose to 3.45% from 3.26%, Expansión reported citing INEGI. Banxico’s FIX stood at 18.11 pesos per dollar on Thursday, 8 October.
What Is Not Known
INEGI does not split the crude oil jump into dollar oil prices and the peso’s move. It is also unclear how much of the rise firms will pass on to consumers or US buyers.
INEGI’s producer price figures are preliminary and can be revised for up to five months, oil included. September prices of US imports from Mexico are not yet known.
What Comes Next
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September import prices, including its Mexico index, on Friday, 16 October. Banxico announces its next rate decision on Thursday, 5 November.
INEGI releases October producer prices on Monday, 9 November. One strong month does not mean consumer inflation, now inside Banxico’s 2% to 4% range, will follow at that pace.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do Mexico producer prices measure?
They track the prices Mexican producers receive for goods and services sold at home and for export. INEGI publishes the index monthly, on the same day as consumer prices.
How much did Mexico producer prices rise in September?
They rose 4.05% from a year earlier and 1.37% from August, INEGI said on 8 October. Analysts had expected 3.3%, after 2.99% in August.
What drove the increase?
Crude oil prices jumped 34.04% in the month, and gasoline and diesel also rose. Energy items accounted for close to 60% of the monthly increase.
Will this raise US import prices?
It could, since Mexican export goods prices rose 3.12% on the year, measured in pesos. A weaker peso may offset part of that for buyers paying in dollars.
When is the next data?
The US import price report for September is due on 16 October. INEGI publishes October producer prices on 9 November.
Sources: INEGI, producer price index for September 2026 (Boletín 620/26); INEGI, producer price index for August 2026 (Boletín 587/26); Banco de México, minutes of the 24 September decision; Banco de México, 24 September policy statement; Banco de México, 2026 policy calendar; Banco de México, FIX exchange rate; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, import prices; US Census Bureau, trade in goods with Mexico; El Economista (peso); Expansión (oil); Expansión (consumer prices) (all accessed 9 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief