Fact-Check Finds Errors by Lula and Flávio
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 3:16 a.m. ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo fact-check, Aos Fatos, Poder360
Key Facts
- What happened Fact-checkers found incorrect or exaggerated claims by both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in their first runoff debate, held on Band TV in São Paulo on Sunday 18 October.
- The travel claim Flávio said trips by Lula and his wife Janja cost R$7 billion (about US$1.4 billion), but that is the travel bill of the whole federal government.
- The growth claim Lula said Brazil’s GDP did not grow above 3% a year between his two spells in office, yet it grew 4% in 2011 and 4.8% in 2021.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (19 October, 3:07 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 19 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The runoff is on Sunday 25 October, and it is not known whether the debate will move any votes.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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Fact-checkers at the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo found incorrect or exaggerated claims by both candidates in the first runoff debate of the Brazil election 2026. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, met on Band TV on Sunday 18 October, and Folha published its check at 12:04 a.m. ET on Monday 19 October.
Each man corrected the other on spending and economic growth, two topics that matter to anyone who invests in Brazil. The runoff on Sunday 25 October will decide who runs Latin America’s largest economy, as we reported in our debate coverage.
What the Fact-Checkers Found on Travel Spending
Flávio said that trips by Lula and the first lady, Rosângela “Janja” Lula da Silva, cost R$7 billion (about US$1.4 billion). Folha ruled that wrong: the figure has circulated in social media posts critical of Lula, but it covers travel by many federal bodies.
Aos Fatos, a Brazilian fact-checking outlet, found on 5 October that the R$7 billion is federal travel spending for 2023 to 2025, about R$2.3 billion a year (about US$450 million). Government data on the Transparency Portal show the Presidency itself spent R$150.5 million (about US$30 million) on travel in those three years.
Lula’s Claim About Economic Growth
Lula said that after he left office in 2010, Brazil’s GDP did not grow above 3% a year until he returned in 2023. Folha called this wrong, and Poder360, a Brazilian political news site, reached the same verdict when he made a similar claim in March 2025.
The statistics agency IBGE recorded growth of 4% in 2011 under President Dilma Rousseff, of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), and 4.8% in 2021 under Jair Bolsonaro, according to the latest IBGE figures. Folha said Lula was right on one point: growth was 7.5% in 2010, when his first stretch as president ended.
Claims on Bolsonaro’s Vote and the Banco Master Money
Lula said he would welcome even the vote of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president, who is in prison for an attempted coup. Flávio replied that his father cannot vote because he is a victim of persecution.
Folha confirmed that Jair Bolsonaro cannot vote, but for a legal reason: Brazil suspends political rights once a criminal conviction is final. His final conviction was certified on 25 November 2025 (a sentence of 27 years and 3 months), Band reported, and Folha noted that people held without a final conviction keep the right to vote.
Lula also said Flávio “took” R$134 million (about US$26 million) from Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master, who was later arrested. Folha said this needs context: Flávio did ask Vorcaro directly for the money, but only part of it was paid, at least R$60 million (about US$12 million).
Flávio says the money was private sponsorship for a film about his father, called Dark Horse, and that no public money was involved. Bem Paraná reported that the sum requested was R$134 million and that more than R$60 million was paid in six transfers in 2025.
What It Means for US Readers
The fact-check shows both camps leaning on figures that do not hold up, so investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies should rely on official data such as IBGE rather than campaign claims. A close race can bring price swings until the result is known on 25 October.
Fact-checks rarely move polls on their own, so the next surveys are the first likely read on the debate. The Brazil election polls page lists every runoff survey so readers can compare pollsters.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (19 October, 3:07 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$187.8 million in total bets, and these are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.6% · Lula 21.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Readers can also follow the full Brazil election odds page.
What Is Not Known
Folha checked only some of the claims made in the debate, and other outlets may reach different verdicts on individual points. Both campaigns have disputed the other side’s figures before, so more corrections may follow.
It is not known whether the debate will change any votes before 25 October. Any poll measures opinion on the days of its interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the fact-check of the Lula and Flávio debate find?
Folha de S.Paulo found incorrect or exaggerated statements by both candidates on spending, growth and other topics. It published its check on Monday 19 October at 12:04 a.m. ET.
Did Lula and Janja’s trips cost R$7 billion?
No. The R$7 billion (about US$1.4 billion) is the travel spending of many federal bodies in 2023 to 2025, and the Presidency’s own travel was R$150.5 million (about US$30 million), according to Aos Fatos.
Can Jair Bolsonaro vote in the runoff?
No. Brazil suspends political rights after a final criminal conviction, and his conviction was certified on 25 November 2025.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Where and when was the debate held?
Band TV hosted it in São Paulo on Sunday 18 October. It was the first direct debate between the two runoff candidates.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 19 October 2026; Aos Fatos, 5 October 2026; Poder360, 7 March 2025; Band; Bem Paraná.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief