Liberia Grew 5.1 Percent, and the World Bank Calls It Jobless
LIBERIA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
—The number: Liberia’s economy grew an estimated 5.1 percent in 2025, up from 4.0 percent in 2024. The World Bank, the IMF and the government all use the same figure.
—Who said it now: Information Minister Jerolinmek Matthew Piah relayed it at a press briefing on 25 August, after a National Steering Committee review of the government’s development plan.
—What drove it: Mining output rose an estimated 17 percent, with iron ore production up about 42 percent. Non-mining manufacturing contracted 2.8 percent.
—The spillover: The World Bank says the mining-led upswing had limited spillovers to the rest of the economy. Services growth eased and agriculture moderated.
—Poverty: Extreme poverty is projected to have risen to 35.8 percent in 2025 before falling to 29.8 percent by 2028. The Bank describes recent growth as largely jobless.
—The fiscal picture: The overall deficit narrowed from 7.1 percent of GDP in 2023 to 1.1 percent in 2025. External grants fell from 7.8 percent of GDP to 5.1 percent, and capital spending from 8.2 percent to 5.3 percent.
—2026 forecasts: The government projects 5.5 percent growth for 2026 and the IMF 5.4 percent. The World Bank projects 5.0 percent.
Liberia growth reached an estimated 5.1 percent in 2025, a figure the government presented on 25 August as its two-year scorecard, and the underlying World Bank data shows the expansion was driven by iron ore, produced few jobs and coincided with rising poverty.
What the Liberia growth number describes
The 5.1 percent refers to calendar year 2025, and it is an estimate rather than a final measured outturn. It has been public since the IMF’s January 2026 staff mission and the World Bank’s April 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook for Liberia.
Information Minister Jerolinmek Matthew Piah brought it back to the press on 25 August, relaying conclusions from a National Steering Committee review of the ARREST Agenda, the government’s five-year development plan. The committee is chaired by President Joseph Boakai.
Piah said the review was meant to give the public a clearer picture of progress made and of the challenges that remain. He acknowledged openly that unemployment is still a significant problem.
Iron ore did the work
The World Bank’s account is more specific than the government’s. Mining output rose an estimated 17 percent in 2025, with iron ore production up roughly 42 percent.
Everything else was flat or worse. Services growth eased to 4.6 percent, agriculture moderated to 2.6 percent, and non-mining manufacturing contracted 2.8 percent.
The Bank’s own phrase is that the upswing had limited spillovers to the rest of the economy. A narrow, concentrated expansion is a different thing from a broad-based recovery, and only one of them changes household incomes.
Exports reached US$2.1 billion on gold and iron ore. The current account deficit stood at 6.5 percent of GDP and is projected to widen to 13.4 percent in 2026.
The fiscal improvement is partly forced
On the headline measure the public finances look transformed. The overall deficit narrowed from 7.1 percent of GDP in 2023 to 1.1 percent in 2025, and the primary balance moved to a small surplus.
Domestic revenue rose from 14.7 to 15.8 percent of GDP, which is genuine progress. But external grants fell from 7.8 percent of GDP to 5.1 percent over the same period, and capital spending was compressed from 8.2 percent to 5.3 percent.
Part of this consolidation is discipline and part of it is aid drying up. The World Bank notes that declining external assistance is tightening fiscal space rather than easing it.
Public debt stood at 52.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Government revenue collection reached US$761.1 million by mid-year, Piah said, against a full-year budget of about US$1.3 billion.
Inflation is the number most often reported wrongly
The government said inflation fell to 4.2 percent by the end of 2025. That is a December year-on-year reading, and the World Bank puts the 2025 annual average at 8.5 percent.
The rate has since edged up. The Central Bank of Liberia reported 5.4 percent year on year at its July 2026 policy meeting, and pointed to imported food and fuel prices as the cause.
The central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 16.00 percent in July. Reserves are variously reported at about 1.8 months of import cover by the World Bank for 2025 and about 3.9 months by the central bank in July 2026, on different measures.
The gap the scorecard does not close
Extreme poverty is projected to have risen to 35.8 percent in 2025, and to fall back to 29.8 percent only by 2028. The World Bank’s summary of the period is that recent growth has been largely jobless.
That is the sentence to hold alongside the 5.1 percent. Liberia has roughly 5.7 million people and an economy of about US$5 billion, so a couple of mines coming on stream can move national GDP without moving most households.
For an investor the read is straightforward enough. The macro programme is being cross-checked by IMF staff, the commodity exposure is concentrated, and the domestic market remains thin.
Figures here are estimates and projections from the World Bank, the IMF and the Liberian government, and they are revised regularly. None of this is investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
How fast did Liberia’s economy grow in 2025?
Real GDP growth is estimated at 5.1 percent in 2025, up from 4.0 percent in 2024. The World Bank, the IMF and the government all cite the same estimate.
What drove the growth?
Mining, and iron ore in particular, with output up about 42 percent. Non-mining manufacturing contracted and services growth eased.
Is Liberian poverty falling?
No. The World Bank projects extreme poverty rose to 35.8 percent in 2025 and describes recent growth as largely jobless.
What is projected for 2026?
The government projects 5.5 percent growth and the IMF 5.4 percent. The World Bank projects 5.0 percent.
Sources
World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook for Liberia, April 2026; IMF, 2025 Article IV consultation and second ECF review; Central Bank of Liberia, July 2026 monetary policy communiqué; The New Dawn, Boakai’s two-year report card.
Connected Coverage
Liberia’s programme financing is covered in the IMF review that unlocked about US$50 million, and a very different kind of arrangement in Monrovia’s agreement to take 1,200 deportees from the United States. More sits on our Western Africa hub.
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