KENYA · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What is happening Thousands gathered at Migwena grounds in Bondo, western Kenya, on Thursday, 15 October, for the first anniversary of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s death, while President William Ruto stayed away.
- —Why it matters Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement is split over its alliance with Ruto, and the fight for his voters will shape Kenya’s general election due in August 2027.
- —The numbers Raila died on 15 October 2025, aged 80, after five presidential bids, and a poll this year put 74% of party supporters with the rebel camp against 20% with the leadership.
- —Who is who Ruto is Kenya’s president and seeks re-election, Raila’s brother Oburu Oginga leads the party and backs Ruto, and Senator Edwin Sifuna leads the rebel Linda Mwananchi camp.
- —What to watch Whether former President Uhuru Kenyatta attended is not yet confirmed, and the next test is when Oburu, absent on doctors’ advice, returns to lead the party.
- —What it means for you Kenya is a major non-NATO ally of the United States, so a calm or bitter contest for Raila’s voters affects election-year risk for US investors and travellers.
Opposition leaders and Raila Odinga’s family filled Migwena grounds in Bondo on the first anniversary of his death. President William Ruto, who had been scheduled to attend, was on a development tour in the North Rift instead.
Thousands of Kenyans gathered in Bondo on Thursday, 15 October, to mark one year since Raila Odinga died. The former Prime Minister died in India on 15 October 2025, aged 80, while receiving medical treatment.
Opposition figures including Martha Karua, Edwin Sifuna and former Chief Justice David Maraga joined the family at Migwena grounds. Ruto stayed away, and ODM leader Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother, missed the event while recovering from an illness.
Raila’s party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), is now split over its alliance with Ruto ahead of the August 2027 election. That fight over his voters matters to the United States, which counts Kenya as a major non-NATO ally.
Who Attended the Raila Odinga Memorial
Widow Ida Odinga led the family, with Raila Odinga Junior and Winnie Odinga, The Standard and The Eastleigh Voice reported. Siaya Governor James Orengo, a long-time Raila ally whose county includes Bondo, was involved in the preparations.
Martha Karua, leader of the People’s Liberation Party and Raila’s 2022 running mate, flew into Kisumu ahead of the memorial. “I have just landed in Kisumu ahead of the memorial of my dear brother and friend,” she said, The Star reported.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, the former ODM secretary general, travelled with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. Before the ceremony, Ida Odinga hosted Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi group at her Opoda farm home, The Star and The Eastleigh Voice reported.
Former Chief Justice David Maraga, who is seeking the presidency, said he was in Bondo to join the family, People Daily reported. Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a former Vice President, said he was on his way, People Daily and The Eastleigh Voice reported.
Prof Adams Oloo, who chairs the family-led steering committee for the anniversary, promised “a celebration worthy of the man.” Musicians, dancers and gospel singers filled the programme, and police stood by to direct the crowd.
Who Stayed Away and Why
Ruto had been expected to attend, and Capital FM reported on 10 October that the published programme included him. People Daily said he was instead in Elgeyo-Marakwet County, and The Star said he continued a development tour of the North Rift.
Neither The Star nor The Eastleigh Voice cited any reason for his absence. Ruto had already handed over Raila’s mausoleum at the family home, Kang’o ka Jaramogi, on Wednesday, 7 October.
Oburu Oginga, the ODM party leader and Siaya Senator, was absent on medical advice. Ida Odinga told mourners he was unwell but alive, on doctors’ orders to rest, Pulse Kenya and The Eastleigh Voice reported.
In a statement read at the grounds by Kisii Governor Simba Arati, Oburu said his doctors had ordered bed rest. He said they had ordered “zero public appearances for the immediate future,” People Daily and The Eastleigh Voice reported.
Sections of the crowd chanted for Oburu and asked where he was, People Daily and Pulse Kenya reported. He had also missed the mausoleum handover on 7 October on medical advice to rest.
ODM’s communications director warned on Tuesday, 13 October, against false reports about Oburu’s health, Kenyans.co.ke and The Eastleigh Voice reported. Kenyans.co.ke said the party described him as resting after weeks of treatment in London and Kenya.
The Eastleigh Voice reported that ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga, Homa Bay’s governor, and Minority Leader Junet Mohamed were also absent. It said other ODM MPs stayed away to avoid confrontation with Sifuna’s camp, a claim not independently confirmed.
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta was invited but had not arrived by early afternoon, People Daily reported. Kenyatta quit on 5 October as chair of Azimio la Umoja, the coalition behind Raila’s 2022 bid, but remains a member.
ODM Divided a Year After His Death
Raila brought ODM into a so-called broad-based government with Ruto after the 2024 Gen Z protests forced a Cabinet overhaul. The two men signed a cooperation deal in March 2025, and senior ODM figures took Cabinet posts.
Under Oburu, ODM’s leadership now backs Ruto’s re-election, and chairperson Gladys Wanga says the party will field no presidential candidate in 2027. Sifuna launched The Equitable Party for a 2027 presidential bid, and Capital FM says it will become the Linda Mwananchi Movement.
A poll by Kenyan research firm TIFA found 74% of ODM supporters identify with Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi camp, The Star reported. Capital FM gave the same split, with 20% for Linda Ground, the faction tied to Oburu and the Ruto deal.
Ida Odinga and Orengo had urged leaders not to turn the day into a contest between political factions. “I know there are some people who have come with different agendas,” Ida told the crowd, People Daily reported.
Raila’s daughter Winnie Odinga used the memorial to declare a run for Nairobi senator, The Standard and The Eastleigh Voice reported. “I am running for Nairobi Senator,” she said, noting that Sifuna is seeking higher office, state broadcaster KBC reported.
The Rio Times maps the wider field in its guides to who can challenge Ruto in 2027 and Kenya’s key political players. Its Nairobi city guide covers the capital, where Sifuna and Babu Owino hold their seats.
Who Is Who
- Raila Odinga: Kenya’s Prime Minister from 2008 to 2013 and longtime ODM leader, who died on 15 October 2025.
- William Ruto: Kenya’s president since 2022, leader of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), seeking re-election in 2027.
- Oburu Oginga: Raila’s elder brother, Siaya Senator and ODM party leader, who backs the alliance with Ruto.
- Ida Odinga: Raila’s widow, who led the family’s commemoration and called for political restraint.
- Edwin Sifuna: Nairobi Senator and former ODM secretary general, now leading the Linda Mwananchi camp against Ruto’s re-election.
- Martha Karua: Leader of the People’s Liberation Party and Raila’s running mate in the 2022 election.
- Kalonzo Musyoka: Wiper party leader, former Vice President and Raila’s running mate in 2013 and 2017.
- James Orengo: Governor of Siaya County, which includes Bondo, and a long-time Raila ally.
What It Means for US Readers
Kenya is a major non-NATO ally of the United States, a status Washington granted in 2024. Its next general election is due in August 2027, and the contest for Raila’s voters could shape how calm that race is.
Disputed Kenyan elections in 2007 and 2017 brought deadly unrest, and investors in Kenyan dollar bonds watch that risk closely. Pundits quoted by The Star say it is unclear who will inherit Raila’s base in the Nyanza region around Kisumu.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Uhuru Kenyatta attended, since his office had not confirmed by Thursday morning, The Star reported. No reason for Ruto’s absence and no message from him on the anniversary had been reported by early afternoon.
The reasons given for the absence of Wanga and other ODM MPs rest on a single outlet and remain unconfirmed. It is also unclear whether Kalonzo Musyoka, who said he was on his way, arrived and spoke at the memorial.
Oburu’s diagnosis has not been disclosed, and it is unclear when he will return to public life. No official crowd figure was released, so the size of the gathering is known only as thousands.
What Comes Next
ODM’s own month of Raila commemorations continues around the country, separate from the family’s events. Mashujaa Day, Kenya’s national heroes’ holiday, follows on Tuesday, 20 October.
The larger test is the August 2027 election, where ODM plans to back Ruto while Sifuna and others court Raila’s voters. The anniversary changed no party alignment by itself, but it showed where each leader chose to be.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who was Raila Odinga?
Raila Odinga was Kenya’s Prime Minister from 2008 to 2013 and led the Orange Democratic Movement. He ran for president five times without winning and died in India on 15 October 2025, aged 80.
Why did President Ruto skip the memorial?
No reason was given, and he was on a development tour in the North Rift region instead. He had handed over Raila’s mausoleum at the family home on Wednesday, 7 October.
Why was ODM leader Oburu Oginga absent?
Ida Odinga told mourners he was unwell but alive and that doctors had advised him to rest. His family and party have not disclosed his diagnosis.
What is Linda Mwananchi?
Linda Mwananchi is a rebel ODM camp led by Senator Edwin Sifuna that opposes the party’s alliance with Ruto. Sifuna launched The Equitable Party for it and plans to run for president in 2027.
Why does this matter to Americans?
Kenya is a major non-NATO ally of the United States and a key partner in East Africa. The fight over Raila’s voters will shape the August 2027 election, which US investors watch for signs of instability.
Sources: The Star (Karua, Sifuna in Bondo as Ruto skips); The Star (Migwena crowds); The Star (political showdown); The Star (ODM turbulence); Citizen Digital (thousands throng Bondo); Citizen Digital (Ida Odinga, Orengo); Citizen Digital (steering committee); The Standard; People Daily (who is in, who is missing); People Daily (Ida Odinga); The Eastleigh Voice; The Eastleigh Voice (live blog); Pulse Kenya; Capital FM (programme); Capital FM (Raila’s political legacy); Kenyans.co.ke (ODM statement on Oburu); The Eastleigh Voice (Ida Odinga on Oburu); People Daily (Oburu statement); The Standard (Winnie Odinga); KBC (Winnie Odinga); Citizen Digital (Kenyatta quits Azimio post); The Star (ODM month-long programme) (all accessed 15 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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