Ibovespa Caps Best Month Since 2020 As Foreign Money Floods Brazil

Key Points

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• The Ibovespa gained 12.56% in January, its best month since November 2020, and broke above 186,000 intraday.

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• Foreign investors put more than R$23 billion ($4.26 billion) into Brazilian equities through Jan 28, the biggest monthly inflow since January 2022.

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• Charts suggest momentum is cooling from extreme levels, but the broader uptrend still looks intact.

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\n\\nBrazil’s stock market ended January with the kind of performance that forces global allocators to pay attention.\n\\n\n\\nThe Ibovespa rose 12.56% in the month, its strongest monthly gain since November 2020, after pushing above 186,000 points for the first time on an intraday basis.\n\\n\n\\nThe dollar fell 4.40% against the real in January and ended the last session of the month at R$5.2476 ($0.19 per real), reinforcing the sense that international money was not just dabbling but repositioning.\n\\n\n\\nThe clearest driver was flow. B3 data cited in market coverage shows foreign investors brought more than R$23 billion ($4.26 billion) into Brazilian equities through Jan 28.\n\\n\n\\nThat is the largest monthly foreign inflow since January 2022. It also nearly matches the entire foreign buying recorded through all of 2025, when net inflows totaled R$25.47 billion ($4.72 billion).\n\\n\n\\n

Ibovespa Caps Best Month Since 2020 As Foreign Money Floods Brazil

\n\\nThe narrative behind that rotation was geopolitical and financial: a pullback from U.S. exposure after late-month global tensions and a search for liquidity and carry in markets offering high real rates.\n\\n\n\\nPolitics layered in, but did not derail the trade. Polling kept President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in front in first-round scenarios, while recent surveys showed a narrower edge over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical runoff.\n\\n\n\\nSeparately, Mercosur and the European Union signed a long-awaited free-trade agreement after 26 years of negotiations. Investors also tracked the sprawling Master case.\n\\n\n\\nThe Central Bank liquidated Will Financeira, controlled by Banco Master, and the Federal Police carried out search warrants involving Rioprevidência officials linked to suspected irregular operations.\n\\n\n\\nMonetary policy helped the risk-on mood. Copom held the Selic at 15% for the fifth time but revived forward guidance that points to rate cuts starting in March, with markets leaning toward a 0.50 percentage point move.\n\\n\n\\nThe Fed also held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with two dissents favoring a cut, and the month ended with Kevin Warsh named to succeed Jerome Powell in May.\n\\n\n\\nThe month’s biggest gainers showed where the market’s conviction sat: turnaround education and domestic cyclicals, plus energy. Cogna led with a 43.99% jump, followed by Raízen +27.16%, Petrobras ON +24.01%, Vamos +23.53%, and Prio +23.10%.\n\\n\n\\nPetrobras preferred rose 22.52% as Brent gained 13.9% in January, ending around $69.32. Losers were led by Vivara down 15.22%, pressured by a 9.30% rise in gold to about $4,745.10 per ounce, plus Hapvida -11.74% and Marfrig -6.56%.\n\\n\n\\nThe charts capture how the month finished: still strong, but less frantic. On the 4-hour chart, RSI has fallen to about 62.76, a clear cooling after the week’s extremes, with MACD momentum turning negative.\n\\n\n\\nOn the daily chart, RSI sits around 74.79, still elevated but off the peak, while weekly RSI near 82.44 keeps the “overbought” warning active.\n\\n\n\\nThe message for February is simple. The trend remains up, but the market is now priced for continued good news and steady foreign demand.\n

For broader market context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for this date. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian stock market and Latin American financial markets.

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