Key Points
\n
-
\n \t
- Europe grew a bit faster than expected in Q4, with unemployment down, while Spain’s inflation cooled and output stayed strong.
- The U.S. showed hotter producer inflation and a much wider trade deficit, but factory sentiment jumped sharply.
- Latin America delivered mixed signals: Mexico rebounded in Q4, Brazil’s job market broke sharply, and Colombia tightened policy again.
\n \t
\n \t
\n
\n
United States
\nThe big swing was inflation in the pipeline. Core PPI jumped 0.7% m/m and 3.3% y/y. Headline PPI rose 0.5% m/m and held 3.0% y/y. That complicates the “easy disinflation” story, even if it proves temporary.
\n
\nThe trade deficit widened to $56.8B as exports fell to $292.1B and imports rose to $348.9B. Claims were still low: initial 209K and continuing 1.827M. Factory momentum improved hard: Chicago PMI jumped to 54.0 from the low 40s.
\n
\nFactory orders rose 2.7% m/m, with ex-transport at 0.2%, and wholesale sales rose 1.3% m/m with inventories up 0.2%. Natural gas storage drew 242B, a winter squeeze signal.
\n
\nFunding stayed steady (4-week 3.630%, 8-week 3.635%, 7-year 4.018%). GDPNow dropped to 4.2% from 5.4%. Net: activity looks better, but the inflation impulse and trade gap are uncomfortable.
\n
Europe and UK
\nEurozone Q4 GDP rose 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y, slightly better than expected, and unemployment fell to 6.2%.
\n
\nConfidence improved: the Business and Consumer Survey rose to 99.4, business climate improved to −0.41, services sentiment rose to 7.2, and industrial sentiment improved to −6.8. Inflation expectations eased to 24.1 and selling-price expectations fell to 10.0.
\n
\n
\n
\nCredit was steady: M3 growth 2.8% y/y, with private loans and corporate loans both at 3.0% y/y. Italy’s non-EU trade surplus widened to €8.39B and BTP yields held (10-year 3.44%, 5-year 2.74%).
\n
\nFrance jobseekers fell to 3,117.4K. Spain’s retail slowed to 2.9% y/y, but business confidence improved to −3.0. Spain’s current account fell to €0.21B after a prior surge.
\n
\nGermany’s January CPI firmed to 2.1% y/y, while HICP also printed 2.1% y/y. Net: Europe is stabilizing, but it is not accelerating fast.
\n
Canada
\nGrowth was flat in November (0.0% m/m) and up slightly in the December flash (0.1% m/m). The fiscal balance worsened to −$8.02B in November. Earnings were 2.45% y/y. Trade widened to a −$2.20B deficit as exports fell and imports held.
\n
Asia-Pacific
\nJapan cooled on inflation and demand. CPI fell to 1.4% y/y, Tokyo core to 2.0% y/y, and retail sales fell 0.9% y/y.
\n
\nIndustrial production fell only 0.1% m/m, and the one-month-ahead forecast jumped to 9.3%, but the two-month-ahead forecast was negative. Household confidence improved to 37.9.
\n
\nForeign flows were positive but smaller than the prior day. India’s buffers strengthened: FX reserves rose to $709.41B, but money growth slowed (loans 13.1%, deposits 10.6%).
\n
\nKorea improved: output rose 1.7% m/m and retail rose 0.9% m/m, with services up 1.1% m/m.
\n
Latin America and Africa
\nMexico’s Q4 GDP rebounded: 0.8% q/q and 1.6% y/y after contraction. The fiscal deficit widened sharply to −MXN 414.44B in December, a clear warning for 2026 financing. Brazil’s labor market was the shock.
\n
\nCAGED showed −618.16K jobs in December after +85.86K, even as unemployment stayed low at 5.1%. Inflation pressures picked up: IGP-M rose 0.41% m/m and bank lending rose 1.8% m/m.
\n
\nThe fiscal mix improved on one line item (a small surplus) but the nominal deficit remained large (−R$115.5B) with net debt at 65.3% and gross debt 78.7%.
\n
\nChile’s unemployment fell to 8.0% and copper output declined 4.7% y/y, while retail stayed strong at 4.5% y/y.
\n
\nSouth Africa held rates at 6.75%; its trade surplus was R23.18B. Colombia raised rates to 10.25% from 9.25%, a clear pivot toward tighter policy as inflation and currency risk stay sensitive.
\n
Positioning and risk
\nCFTC showed higher crude length (97.0K) and lower gold length (205.4K). EUR net length increased to 132.1K and CAD shorts shrank. Risk positioning is still mixed, not one-way.
\n
What it means
\nThis was a “growth steadier, inflation not dead” session. Europe’s improving confidence and lower unemployment help the soft-landing story. U.S. PPI and a wider trade deficit keep the Fed cautious. Japan’s cooling supports global disinflation.
\n
\nLatin America is split: Mexico is growing again, Brazil is volatile on jobs and credit, and Colombia is tightening.
\n
\nTilt: keep quality duration, but respect inflation surprises; favor Europe where credit is steady and confidence is improving; in LATAM, prefer Mexico over Brazil until Brazil’s labor and flows normalize.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.
Related: Latin American Pulse | Brazil Morning Call