Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 30, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Nubank US charter → Conditional approval from OCC to form Nubank, N.A.; 18-month timeline to open with FDIC/Fed approvals pending; boosts legitimacy for Latin American fintech expansion, targeting U.S. digital banking and strengthening Brazil’s global financial ties.

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• PicPay Nasdaq IPO → $434M raised at $19/share, valuing ~$2.5B; first Brazilian listing since 2021 Nubank IPO, signals renewed investor interest in Brazil’s fintech scale amid profitability turnaround from losses to R$313.8M profit in 2025 9M.

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\nBroader risk: Fintech momentum supports EM inflows, but policy shifts (Fed/BCB), overheated equities, and regulatory hurdles (U.S. charters, IPO volatility) could trigger corrections; commodity resilience offsets inflation concerns.
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Economic Agenda for January 30, 2026

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Brazil

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• 6:30 AM BRT – IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) (Jan) Cons: 0.41% Prev: -0.01%

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• 6:30 AM BRT – Gross Debt-to-GDP ratio (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 79.5% Prev: 79.0%

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• 6:30 AM BRT – Budget Balance (Dec) Cons: -95.400B Prev: -101.600B

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• 7:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Dec) Cons: 5.1% Prev: 5.2%

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• 12:30 PM BRT – CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 85.86K

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• 3:30 PM BRT – CFTC BRL speculative net positions Cons: – Prev: 17.6K

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Mexico

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• 3:00 AM BRT – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Preliminary (Q4) Cons: -0.3% Prev: –

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• 3:00 AM BRT – GDP Growth Rate YoY Preliminary (Q4) Cons: -0.1% Prev: –
  \n(TBD) – Fiscal Balance (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -1083.1B (prelim context)

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Colombia

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• 6:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Dec) Cons: 7.0% Prev: 8.3%

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• 9:00 AM BRT – Interest Rate Decision Cons: 9.25% Prev: 9.25%

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Chile

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• 1:00 AM BRT – Copper Production YoY (Dec) Cons: -7.2% Prev: –

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• 1:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production YoY (Dec) Cons: -0.8% Prev: –

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• 1:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing Production YoY (Dec) Cons: -1.3% Prev: –

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United States

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• 8:30 AM EST – PPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.2%

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• 8:30 AM EST – Core PPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.0%

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• 9:45 AM EST – Chicago PMI (Jan) Cons: 43.5 Prev: 43.5

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EU

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• 4:00 AM CET – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.0%

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• 5:26 AM CET – Unemployment Rate (Dec) Cons: 6.3% Prev: 6.3%

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• 8:00 AM CET – German CPI (YoY) (Jan) Cons: 2.0% Prev: 1.8%

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Canada

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• 8:30 AM EST – GDP (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.3%

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• 8:31 AM EST – GDP (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: –

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• 11:00 AM EST – Budget Balance (Nov) Cons: – Prev: -2.28B

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Japan

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• 12:00 AM JST – Housing Starts (YoY) (Dec) Cons: -4.5% Prev: -8.5%

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• 12:00 AM JST – Construction Orders (YoY) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 9.5%

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• 3:30 PM EST – CFTC JPY speculative net positions Cons: – Prev: -44.8K

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Australia

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• 3:30 PM AEST – CFTC AUD speculative net positions Cons: – Prev: -14.0K

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\nImplication: Brazil’s IGP-M tracks wholesale inflation trends, influencing broader price expectations and BCB policy; debt-to-GDP and budget balance gauge fiscal health amid spending pressures, while unemployment and CAGED jobs signal labor market strength post-seasonal adjustments—key for growth bets; CFTC positions reveal currency sentiment.
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\nRegional LatAm data add context: Mexico’s preliminary Q4 GDP probes nearshoring/trade resilience amid U.S. tariff risks.
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\nColombia’s unemployment and BanRep rate decision test labor/inflation dynamics; Chile’s production metrics (copper/industrial) highlight commodity/export health critical for copper-linked flows.
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\nArgentina quiet on data but policy watch continues. These feed into broader EM sentiment, commodity prices, and potential spillover to Ibovespa/Real.
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\nU.S. PPI measures producer inflation, guiding Fed rate paths; Core PPI excludes volatiles for core trends; Chicago PMI assesses manufacturing health, impacting growth outlooks.
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\nEU German GDP reflects economic momentum in the bloc’s powerhouse; unemployment tests labor resilience; CPI informs ECB inflation stance.
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\nCanada’s GDP tracks monthly growth, signaling recovery or slowdown; budget balance probes fiscal discipline.
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\nJapan’s housing starts/construction orders indicate real estate/investment activity, guiding BoJ policy; CFTC positions show yen bets.
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\nAustralia’s CFTC AUD positions highlight currency speculation. Global data mix (U.S./EU policy anchors) dominates amid dollar dynamics and metals volatility.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

\nIbovespa -0.84% to 183,134 on global risk-off from U.S. equities plunge, offsetting earlier highs above 186,000; intraday range 181,567–186,450 with small caps underperforming. Dollar -0.12% at approx. 5.1880 reais per $1, easing slightly amid broader EM currency pressures post-Fed signals.
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Commodity Markets

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Palladium

\nPrice: $1,796/oz, down sharply (from recent highs around $2,000+).
\nWhat’s happening: Sharp decline amid broader metals sell-off and supply-demand shifts.
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Platinum

\nPrice: $2,254/oz, down ~14% (volatile session).
\nWhat’s happening: Pressured by risk aversion and industrial slowdown bets.
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Gold

\nPrice: $5,057.10/oz, down significantly.
\nWhat’s happening: Safe-haven bids fade amid equity volatility and dollar moves.
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Silver

\nPrice: $99.15/oz, down sharply.
\nWhat’s happening: Volatility in precious metals with defensive shifts.
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Copper

\nPrice: ~$5.97/lb (equiv. high per ton levels), volatile rebound attempts.
\nWhat’s happening: Mixed on inventory tightness despite growth concerns.
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Aluminum

\nPrice: Not directly updated; base metals mixed.
\nWhat’s happening: Slight dip in base metals amid mixed demand signals.
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Iron ore (62% Fe CFR Qingdao index)

\nPrice: $105.77/ton, down 0.08%.
\nWhat’s happening: Stable above $100 as China stimulus cools.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → USD/BRL at R$5.1880 -0.12%; slight easing amid global dollar strength and EM outflows, but resilient near lows on policy support.
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Companies and Market

\nNubank Wins Conditional U.S. Charter Approval, Starting An 18-Month Race
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\nPicPay’s $434 Million Nasdaq IPO Reopens Brazil’s Long-Closed Listing Window
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U.S. Markets Yesterday

\nS&P 500 mixed/flat to down slightly post-Fed hold; tech drag in recent sessions.
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Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

\nColombia’s Peso Holds Firm As Courts Jolt The Fiscal Story And Stocks Digest Gains — Constitutional Court pauses Petro’s emergency decree, adding budget uncertainty but peso resilient.
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\nPeso Surge Deepens As USD/MXN Cracks Lower Amid U.S. Tariff Threats Tied To Cuba — Mexico watchful on trade risks, but nearshoring flows support.
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\nArgentina’s Peso Holds A Tight Blue Premium As Global Markets Digest Policy Shifts — Parallel premium contained amid steady reference rate.
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\nChile Markets Morning Update: USD/CLP Bounces Toward 860 As IPSA Holds Near Records — Central bank holds at 4.50%, unemployment falls.
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\nNote: Crypto markets remain fragile amid technical pressures and policy uncertainties.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate