Gold Rebounds 1.4% to US$4,185 as Weak US Data Cools Fed Hike Bets
Key Facts
- Gold rebounded 1.39% to US$4,184.97 an ounce on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, recovering less than half of Monday’s 3.12% fall. It traded between US$4,113.46 and US$4,187.66.
- Silver rose 1.18% to US$61.52 an ounce, after a 4.60% slide on Monday. Its low for the day was US$60.30.
- US job openings fell: August JOLTS openings came in at 7.079 million, below the 7.23 million forecast and down from 7.335 million in July.
- Consumer confidence slumped: the Conference Board index fell to 81.9 in September from 88.6, the lowest since 2014. Markets cut the odds of an October Fed hike to about 51.5% from 70.9%.
- Yields and the dollar capped the bounce: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.25% and the 30-year at 5.57%, while the dollar index rose to 101.37, its highest close in two months.
- Latin American exposure: Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer and Peru the second-largest, together about 38% of 2025 mine output, according to the US Geological Survey.
Today’s Focus
Gold rose 1.39% to US$4,184.97 an ounce on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, and silver gained 1.18% to US$61.52. Both metals clawed back part of Monday’s sharp sell-off, when gold fell 3.12% and silver 4.60%.
The trigger was Tuesday’s US data. Job openings fell to 7.079 million in August, and consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 in September, well below forecasts. New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency”, according to Kitco. Traders cut the odds of an October rate hike to about 51.5% from 70.9% on Monday.
Lower oil helped too. Brent crude settled 2.6% lower at US$102.59 a barrel, easing the inflation fears that have pushed yields up.
The rebound stayed limited. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.25% and the dollar index firmed to 101.37, its highest close since late July. Both make non-yielding, dollar-priced bullion less attractive.
What matters today. Wednesday’s US PCE inflation report will show whether Tuesday’s cut in Fed hike bets holds, and with it the metals’ bounce.
01 The session in one read
Gold and silver rebounded on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, after US job openings and consumer confidence both came in below forecasts. Spot gold settled at US$4,184.97 an ounce, up 1.39%.
Spot silver closed at US$61.52 an ounce, up 1.18%. Both moves recovered only part of Monday’s sell-off, as softer data trimmed bets on an October Fed rate increase.
Tuesday’s bounce came from a repricing of Fed odds after two soft US releases. Yet the 10-year yield at 5.25% still punishes assets that pay no interest, and the dollar is at a two-month high. Gold has recovered less than half of Monday’s loss. To extend the move, the metals need a clear drop in long-term yields or a weaker dollar; Wednesday’s PCE data and Friday’s jobs report are the tests.
02 The board
Gold outperformed silver, a sign that the move was driven by rates rather than by industrial demand. Silver, which fell harder on Monday, lagged in the rebound.
In the listed miners, Pan American Silver, which runs mines in Mexico and Peru, rose 0.81% to US$46.14 in New York. Peru’s Buenaventura slipped 0.19% to US$31.99.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | US$4,184.97/oz | +1.39% |
| Silver (spot) | US$61.52/oz | +1.18% |
| Pan American Silver | US$46.14 | +0.81% |
| Buenaventura | US$31.99 | -0.19% |
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,055.91 | -0.73% | — | 11,137.23 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 65,110.57 | +0.26% | +12.17% | 64,944.41 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,782,561 | -0.59% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,558.92 | -0.79% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 60,220.45 | +0.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
The softer data cut the implied probability of an October Fed rate increase to about 51.5% from 70.9%, according to CME FedWatch pricing cited by Kitco. When traders expect the Fed to hold, the cost of owning gold and silver instead of interest-paying assets falls. The 2-year Treasury yield, the most sensitive to Fed expectations, eased to 4.88%.
Yet long-term yields did not follow. The 10-year closed at 5.25% and the 30-year at 5.57%. The dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.37, making bullion more expensive for buyers outside the US.
04 Tuesday’s data, one by one
- US JOLTS job openings (August): 7.079 million, below the 7.23 million forecast and down from 7.335 million in July. A cooler labour market lowers the case for a hike and supported the metals.
- US Conference Board consumer confidence (September): 81.9 against an 89.2 forecast and 88.6 in August, the lowest reading since 2014. This was the day’s biggest miss and the main driver of the shift in Fed odds.
- Fed speakers: New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency”, according to Kitco. Governor Waller and St. Louis Fed President Musalem were also on the calendar.
- Oil: we flagged crude as a driver. Brent fell 2.6% to US$102.59 and WTI 3.5% to US$89.38, according to Kitco, which eased inflation fears and helped gold.
- US house prices (July): the S&P/Case-Shiller index rose 2.5% year on year, above the 2.2% forecast. No visible effect on metals.
- Euro-area sentiment (September): the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator fell to 97.9 from 98.4, below the 99.0 forecast. It did not move bullion.
- Brazil IGP-M (September): FGV’s index rose 1.57% in the month, near the 1.60% forecast, after a 0.22% fall in August. No effect on metals.
- Mexican and Peruvian miners: we flagged possible analyst revisions after Monday’s silver slide. We found no major published revisions on Tuesday, and the listed names moved modestly.
05 The Latin American read
Mexico mined about 6,300 tonnes of silver in 2025 and Peru about 3,600 tonnes, the top two producers worldwide, according to the US Geological Survey. That makes silver’s swings a direct factor for export earnings and mining taxes in both countries.
Much of Peru’s silver comes from polymetallic mines that also produce zinc, lead and copper. Mining costs are largely paid in local currency, so a price recovery in dollars tends to lift producers’ margins.
06 The names to watch
Pan American Silver, with major operations in Mexico and Peru, gained 0.81% to US$46.14, lagging silver’s rise. Peru’s Buenaventura slipped 0.19% to US$31.99.
Mexican producers such as Fresnillo and Peñoles remain the most direct regional plays on silver. Their shares tend to amplify moves in the metal because revenue rises while costs stay comparatively stable.
07 The outlook
The near-term direction hinges on whether long-term US yields ease from 5.25% on the 10-year Treasury. If this week’s inflation and jobs data also come in soft, traders may cut October hike bets further and give the metals another push. A hot PCE reading would likely reverse Tuesday’s gains.
08 What to watch
- US PCE inflation (August): 12:30 UTC (09:30 BRT), with personal income and spending; headline PCE is forecast at 3.7% year on year.
- US ADP employment (September): 12:15 UTC (09:15 BRT); forecast 70,000 after 38,000 in August.
- German inflation (September, flash): 12:00 UTC (09:00 BRT); forecast 3.2% year on year after 2.9%. A hot print would push global yields higher.
- US dollar index: a retreat from Tuesday’s 101.37, a two-month high, would make bullion cheaper for overseas buyers.
- Later this week: US ISM manufacturing on Thursday and the September jobs report on Friday will set October Fed pricing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold and silver rise on Tuesday?
Weaker US job openings and consumer confidence data cut the odds of an October Federal Reserve rate increase to about 51.5% from 70.9%, which lowered the cost of holding non-yielding metals.
How much did gold and silver gain?
Spot gold rose 1.39% to US$4,184.97 an ounce and spot silver 1.18% to US$61.52, recovering part of Monday’s losses of 3.12% and 4.60%.
Why was the rebound limited?
The 10-year Treasury yield stayed at 5.25% and the dollar index rose to 101.37, its highest close in two months, making bullion less attractive and more expensive for foreign buyers.
What is the Latin American angle?
Mexico and Peru are the world’s two largest silver producers, mining about 6,300 and 3,600 tonnes in 2025, so silver prices directly affect their export earnings and mining taxes.
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026.
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